Marking these early so I don't forget when they snap off during MNF.
[Tokyo] Robredo +140
This isn't just about the head-2-head which is what will probably draw a lot of people in with Robredo leading 7-1 all-time. I have made my point known that head-2-head older than two years doesn't offer that much help and that was the last time they played. What I am looking at here is motivation and surface switches. Robredo has been hammering the clay Challengers to work his ranking back up. Since June, he has cut off 300 some odd ranking spots which is phenomenal. Nieminen will get plenty of love after a good week indoors, but he's been a really underrated/solid indoor player over the years. Shifting back onto the outdoor courts though is where some weakness lies in his game. He's also have a bit of a wrist issue that he says effects some of his serving options, but not enough to be overly concerned perhaps for a whole match. Robredo for me is still more motivated to drive his ranking as close to 100 as possible and that means he needs wins.
[Beijing] Youzhny +130
I'm a Youzhny mark for sure, but this is an interesting match with Haas. Haas draws the bigger favorite's tag by verge of a fantastic summer run. He hasn't played since the US Open, I think both bad and good. He needed a break, but he is a rhythm guy. His best results came when he was playing a lot of tennis back-2-back. He's certainly more than capable of coming out firing right away. Youzhny meanwhile got his best result since Wimbledon at his home tourney in St.Petersburg, losing in the semis to Klizan. It was a needed confidence boost after a run of poor results since the QF @ Wimbledon. Youzhny has the added bonus of playing on these courts before whereas Haas has not + Youzhny doesn't have Ljubicic to boot him out [2 straight years]. This for me is probably going to be a fairly entertaining match if Haas hits the courts in decent form ... but I think the potential rust on his game could give Youzhny an opening to steal a W if he plays at a high level.