[good2go2mexico]

I'm not saying I'm going to play Ferrer because in my initial read on the tournament I did think Murray would make it to the finals. I just don't understand people throwing around the word lock about this match. I'm just curious to hear some other insight.

It just seems to me that David Ferrer is constantly looked at as being a bad grass player. He's 32-12 now lifetime record on grass. In my opinion, he has one of the five best return games in the world. He has made huge strides in improving his serve. He has incredible heart (not to be undervalued).

[Zacharrr]

ill be on ferrer if i get a better price than now.

[good2go2mexico]

ill be on ferrer if i get a better price than now.

I'm looking at the over pretty hard. I see no reason why Ferrer cannot push him. On a sidenote, I do hate and/or strongly dislike Andy Murray so I really, really hope my initial read of him getting into the finals was wrong.

[tevari]

The matchup is troubling for Ferrer, IMO. Murray seems to like playing against pushers without tremendous power. While there's more to Ferrer's game than pushing, Murray has the ability to hit through people. Neither player overly impressive this week but I do agree that there is value with Ferrer...tough match to cap.

[Vaughany]

Ferrer has won last two against Murray I believe

[good2go2mexico]

tough match to cap.

Yep. I don't see any ATP matches that are any better tomorrow. My boy Youzhny is probably gonna get smoked by Federer for the 14th time. Who the hellll knows what you're gonna get from Tsonga match to match? I'll probably end up having to play the WTA again.

[good2go2mexico]

Ferrer has won last two against Murray I believe

Yes indeed. But on clay. Ferrer is the absolute master on clay. But I just don't understand why Ferrer doesn't get the grass respect that he deserves.

[good2go2mexico]

ill be on ferrer if i get a better price than now.

He dropped. I saw it open at +195 on 5D and sitting at +180 now.

[benrama]

I like the over too ... surprised we are not getting better odds on Ferrer but will see where it ends up before game time. I also can't stand Murray either, a whining bratty spoilt teenager in disguise, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same class as Joker/Nadal/Fed

[good2go2mexico]

I like the over too ... surprised we are not getting better odds on Ferrer but will see where it ends up before game time. I also can't stand Murray either, a whining bratty spoilt teenager in disguise, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same class as Joker/Nadal/Fed

Agreed, it's Big 3 not Big 4.

[Sawyer]

Youz cover tomorrow imo. About Murray, Murray is a loser. Won't be surprised if Ferrer beats him. I like Ferrer +4.5 Games. Even if Murray wins, he will win 3-1 or 3-2.

[shari91]

Murray: Ferrer not a clay-court specialist

Andy Murray, says the Spaniard is not a clay-court specialist.

"No, he's not," Murray said. "He won last week on grass [in the Netherlands], so he's won, what, eight matches in a row on the grass? He's been in the semifinals of Australia, I think semifinals of U.S. Open, as well, and now he's starting to play better on grass. I don't see him as a clay-court specialist at all."

Ferrer defeated Murray in the quarterfinals of Roland Garros last month. The two are locked at 5-5 in their career head-to-head. They have never played on grass, and Ferrer has scored four of his wins over the Scot on clay. Murray has won his five matches against Ferrer on hard courts."

I don't think Ferrer is going to beat him although I'd love to see it. Most of Ferrer's strengths - returning, hitting shots over or through, net game - are negated with Murray. However the handi is looking very tempting.

[baskets]

lol at people thinking Ferr has a shot.

1-5 vs Mug on non-clay. one win was BS match in London end year tourney where only Fed showed up

Ferr vs other Big 4:

0-14 vs Fed
5-17 vs Nadal (2 wins have asterisks: 1st match loss 8 yrs ago, Nadal blew 3 mps, and Nadal hurt in AO = 3-17)
5-9 vs Djok (Djok 7-1 last 8 ... if exclude London 2011 where Djok didn't show up... b/c no way 2011 Djok loses)

1-5 vs Mug

overall: 11-45


Mug sucks on clay (standard-wise to his overall game).

You have to understand the reality. Ferr is a warrior. He is a built on nothing. Fed/Nadal/Djok/Mug... they got all the shots and talent. It's like a hard-working white guy (Ehlo) against a talent black guy (Jordan). Who wins? Jordan does.

This is what will happen.

The caveats are this:

1. Mug sucks dicks... so he will tank a set and make it dramatic
2. Mug will periodically play bad... then start grabbing every ligament in his body like he needs 911 stat!
3. Mug will mope around b/c of his bad attitude
4. Mug will make a clear-cut win more dramatic


That's all there is. This happens all the time. People got excited about Rosol, then he got curbstomped in the next round... as usually happens. Ferrer trashed a lazy latin player, Delpo.

But you see, Delpo is like Tsonga.... lazy, inconsistent trash. Delpo and Tsonga have top 4 talent... but they are trash. Delpo has the shitty makeup of 90% of latin players and Tsonga... well, you've seen his celebration dance. You ever seen a video straight from the jungle? Nuff said

This shit is textbook.

But expect gaptoothed Murray to pull some stupid shit... maybe even losing a set 6-1.

[Zacharrr]

i like your post basket.

[nycyellow9]

baskets is a f&cking idiot, must be a jealous whitey

[shari91]

baskets, you were on that "lazy latin player Delpo". You also called him "lazy inconsistent trash".

Yet you put your cash on him.

Do you realise Ferrer has a 72% winning record vs DelPo's 65% on grass throughout their whole careers? Ferrer's record on clay is 70.5% since the start.

Yeah Del Po was a schmuck... but several of us saw that coming. People bank on his US Open win and big serve to carry him through. It doesn't work that way. Guy isn't Mr Tricky Serve... he just tries to blast it. When his opponent can return, he's done.

Murray's record on grass: 73.75% overall.

Some are writing Ferrer off as a guy who can't play on grass. He's right up there with the best in the world on this surface. Not sure what I'm going to take in this match yet but please don't use the "Ferrer is a clay courter" as your angle. It's inaccurate and insulting to those of us who actually know tennis.

[baskets]

baskets, you were on that "lazy latin player Delpo". You also called him "lazy inconsistent trash".

Yet you put your cash on him.

Do you realise Ferrer has a 72% winning record vs DelPo's 65% on grass throughout their whole careers? Ferrer's record on clay is 70.5% since the start.

Yeah Del Po was a schmuck... but several of us saw that coming. People bank on his US Open win and big serve to carry him through. It doesn't work that way. Guy isn't Mr Tricky Serve... he just tries to blast it. When his opponent can return, he's done.

Murray's record on grass: 73.75% overall.

Some are writing Ferrer off as a guy who can't play on grass. He's right up there with the best in the world on this surface. Not sure what I'm going to take in this match yet but please don't use the "Ferrer is a clay courter" as your angle. It's inaccurate and insulting to those of us who actually know tennis.

congrats on your win. yeah, I made the mistake of taking Delpo... guy has a monster serve and Goliath forehands. he "had" #1 level talent... and can go to war with all the big boys. price wasn't too steep. my mistake... I paid the price. aint too proud to recognize I made a bad bet. in hindsight, you were all right by a mile.... and your assessment came true 100%

but don't kid yourself, Murray is no Delpo.... at least not right now. Ferr's slam record vs. the Big 4 on non-clay will forever be 0-20 or something ridiculous. (you exclude the AO b/c Rafa was hurt) that is not sheer coincidence. it is a question of talent. Ferr just doesn't have it


Ferr is an overachiever by a mile.... Mug is an underachiever by a mile.

Really, Ferr has no business being #5 in the world. Look at who he is ahead of in the rankings....

Tsonga
Birdy
Tipsy
Delpo
etc
etc

bunch of other hacks who are worlds more talented but play like retards are below



btw, nyc? what's your deal? you aint never seen Tsonga dance his mono dance? tell me that doesn't look like a monkey when he does it. if you say it doesn't, you're straight up lying

[baskets]

funny thing

would I pound Murray on the ML?


answer: fukk no


why? b/c Mug has a vagina. no doubt they will be applying ice bags to Mug's pussy lips during the match.

[good2go2mexico]

Some are writing Ferrer off as a guy who can't play on grass. He's right up there with the best in the world on this surface. Not sure what I'm going to take in this match yet but please don't use the "Ferrer is a clay courter" as your angle. It's inaccurate and insulting to those of us who actually know tennis.

Music to my ears, thank you Shari!

[good2go2mexico]

Damn Ferrer has a lot of haters. I like the guy he plays with a lot of heart. I can think of a few others who can learn a thing or three from the way he plays.

[ParlayininHTown]

Ferrer, Murray and Tsonga all have a contingent of haters on this board. Just how it is ...

[baskets]

I'm a big fan of Ferr .... and a hater of Muggay.


I'm just calling it as it is. Mug and Ferr are worlds apart in talent.

You guys are falling in love with the hardworker Ferr. I love his heart and drive..... but you remember that clay match of Ferr and Fed a few wks ago. Fed absolutely destroyed him on clay. It was a joke. Ferr had no hope in his game.. and you could see the look on his face in the match. There was nothing he could do to stop Fed.

Talent-wise Ferr and Mug... similar situation. But Mug gives you those emotional letdowns and wtf moments.

Ferr just can't compete w/ the Big Boys. That's all there is too it.

[EVPlus]

As stated in another thread, I haven't been an avid follower of the pro tour for a while.

I do remember this one constant, however. There is a WORLD of pressure on a British player during Wimbledon. These poor guys have the weight of the country on them. (similar with the French and the Tour de France)

So there is that angle. If those who have been following the tour more closely think that Ferrer has been playing that consistent journeyman tennis so far, then Murray certainly is no lock IMO. All it would take is a few bad calls, a double fault, etc. and it could get ugly for Murray and his backers. Some things never change in tennis.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is mirror image vs. mirror image with one in a little bigger body. Murray possesses more power as a result, but he doesn't harness that for shit on a consistent basis.

Formula is the same for me for Ferrer as the last couple rounds - start quick, put your opponent down and put the pressure and frustration on them. If Murray goes down a set ---- the pressure stacks on him more. Ferrer has no pressure here. Same as every round, he's not a good grass court player as the perceived starting point. All he does is prove people wrong. All he does is play hard and win. If there is anyone who deserves to get to a Slam Final, Ferrer is the guy. I'm holding Ferrer to win the quarter @ +1000. Obviously hedging some with Murray, but basically going to look to break even by taking Murray and get the bigger pay day with Ferrer if he wins. Ferrer isn't going to be overcome by the moment, he's been as consistent as the four guys in front of him - hell, more so. QF-SF-QF in Slams this year.

[MagicDiceFlow]

You bet with your emotions too much Baskets. You always state hatred for a player, put your money on the other player, then proceed to create a senseless and non entertaining bash thread about that player halfway through the match when your player starts losing.

I don't know about you guys but I'm not in the emotions business, I'm in the money making business by making smart capping decisions without letting any temperament affect you. Sure I'd like to see certain guys make it deep into certain tournaments but my priority first and foremost is putting my investment into a play that has the best percentage of winning and return rate.

[JNic]

A couple of reasons I think, outside of clay Murray leads h2h 5-1.

Murray also had his 1st serve at 68% last round, this is very promising for anyone that knows Murray.

Ferrer was able to control all the rallies in the JMDP match only because Delpo can't move well, on Ferrer's serve games it was the same thing, get him outwide and then hit into open court, if that happened on Clay or Hardcourt Delpo is always able to respond with a good crosscourt shot moving wide.

Something I noticed though was that the court was playing slow and Delpo's serve wasn't that effective, so this will definitely help Ferrer negate some of Murray's power.

Ferrer will control some rallies with the forehand but not even close to what we saw in the Delpo match. Delpo was a straight line player out there, and when he was at his best winning USO for example, he still is a straightline player but was able to use angles much better, angles is something Murray will be very good at, this is just to prove the point of how different the matchup will be.

And even though the grass is slow, Ferrer won't be able to wear down Murray like he did at RG imo. Ferrer's serve isn't that good obviously and Murray's return is his weapon. Murray also has the slice and a net game, something Delpo never showed.

I think you are also overstating Ferrer's grass game, I mean he's improved drastically this year and his success on the other 2 surfaces translates to grass. Murray simply knows how to exploit Ferrer off of clay, he needs to serve well and I think he will win

[leeloo]

This thread made my decision easier to lay off. Thanks to all for the inputs.
Yes, Murray has a lot of weight on his shoulders and would be really nice for him to win it all. Pussy or not, I hope he does well.
BOL to all.

[good2go2mexico]

I'm just rolling with the over. I think Ferrer will push him to 5. Maybe do some live betting if things play out.

[matt1216]

Ferrer has won last two against Murray I believe

nope, murray on grass won, ferrer won on clay in french open. Murray to win here. this guys plain in his back yard he will dispose of ferrer. Murray will show up. with nadal out murray knows he has slight hope to win it all

[gregm]

There are some good posts in this thread but alot of misconceptions about Ferrer. The notion that Ferrer is useless against the "big 4" is the worst one. There is no big 4 unless Soderling had of been healthy this year. Ferrer may not, at first glance, have good numbers against the top 10 but look at his numbers when you take Nadal, Fed, and Djkovic out of the equation. Ferrer had horrible numbers against those 3 but who has good numbers?

Ferrer is 6-3 against Berdych, 2-1 against Tsonga, 5-2 against del Potro, and 5-5 against Murray.Only Soderling really had Ferrers number. Ferrer is 26-17 against the top 10 (excluding Nadal, Djokovic, and Fed) since 2006 and I doubt there has been a more profitable player in tennis in the ATP top 10 to wager on since 2006. Even the stuff about Ferrer being a clay court specialist and not formidable on grass, I saw that crap on bleacher report tonight, is absurd. You can look at Ferrer numbers on grass versus Murrays on tennis insight and look at Ferrers ROI numbers.

Statistical Summary - David Ferrer - On Grass with Any Odds Match Record ML Level* ML Reciprocal* Insight Model W-L W% Earnings ROI Earnings ROI Avg x Avg Last 1-10 Matches 9-1 90.00% $140 14.0% $211 13.3% 5.37 0.88 Last 1-50 Matches 32-12 72.73% $38 1.6% $220 6.2% 3.51 0.15 Matches since Jul 4 2011 9-0 100.00% $240 26.6% $279 18.4% 5.77 All Matches on Record (since Jan 01 2000) 32-12 72.73% $38 1.6% $220 6.2% 3.51

Statistical Summary - Andy Murray - On Grass with Any Odds Match Record ML Level* ML Reciprocal* Insight Model W-L W% Earnings ROI Earnings ROI Avg x Avg Last 1-10 Matches 8-2 80.00% -$100 -10.0% -$86 -5.1% 5.47 0.82 Last 1-50 Matches 42-8 84.00% -$110 -3.2% -$9 -0.2% 4.95 0.60 Matches since Jul 4 2011 4-1 80.00% -$56 -11.1% -$104 -11.5% 5.53 All Matches on Record (since Jan 01 2000) 59-21 73.75% -$110 -3.2% -$9 -0.2% 3.63

People keep talking about Murrays return and he definitely was dominating Cilics second serve, winning 25 of 38 of Cilics second serves. Ferrer may not be a strong server but he got in 64% of his first serves and won 72% of his first serves against Del Potro. Ferrer had no double faults against Del Potro and faced only 4 break points the whole match. I definitely think this will come down to Murrays serve but watch the body language between these two guys and how this match will play out if Murray falls behind and starts with the negative attitude. I can see why so may people are on Murray this year at Wimbledon and maybe Lendl will help him but in terms of mental strength there is a grand canyon between these guys.

Murray really did looked poor at times against Baghdatis , and Karlovic and Cilic just had ton of unforced errors. Ferrer had only 8 unforced errors against Del Potro. I dont think this is the best match up for David with Murrays strength on rallies and this is certainly Murrays best chance for a title but there isnt a better player on tennis to wager on than Ferrer to give you a fight. Ferrer did let me down at Madrid but facing Fed on that blue clay was like facing Fed on a hard court.

The greatest thing you can do wagering on tennis is keep records and line values and finding certain player and trends, Ferrer is a fighter and has been an absolute moneymaker. There is a reason people make money on Ferrer, one of the most fit players and he wont be feigning an injury if he falls behind in a set, huge difference mentally between these guys. Matchstat keeps betting ranking for most players and if you keep any sort of data on players and prices you know how profitable Ferrer is. Kerber was definitely the money honey for bettors this year.


Betting rankings last 52 weeks

Best

Profit

Matches

Last 4 weeks P/L

1.	Angelique Kerber	1636	76	+261
2.	Sara Errani/Roberta Vinci	1420	66	+158
3.	Kei Nishikori	1276	54	-7
4.	Tommy Haas	1037	43	+560
5.	Adrian Ungur	996	68	-100
6.	Aljaz Bedene	956	49	+50
7.	Juan Monaco	954	58	+25
8.	Alexandra Panova	953	61	-34
9.	Sorana Cirstea	945	65	+162
10.	Brian Baker	940	31	+117
11.	Marinko Matosevic	908	57	+288
12.	Lauren Davis	908	33	0
13.	John Isner	890	66	-100
14.	Silvia Soler-Espinosa	883	44	+ 32
15.	David Ferrer	865	92	+142

[MagicDiceFlow]

^^^^^^^^^great work as always Gregm^^^^^^^^^^^

I also want to add about the Ferrer/Murray. I hear a lot of buzz on other forums about Ferrer getting overpowered by Murray. I think the bookies put too much stock into that Cilic win. Cilic is nothing but a one trick pony with his serve. I stated in other threads and restate again , statistically grass is Ferrer's best surface!! How many more wins does he need to prove that ?? I hear a lot of talk about Murray's serve tomorrow.

An important factor that many overlooked in the Del Potro match is that these are wet humid conditions. Even indoors, these grass courts have a much lower bounce than a court that's been baked in the sun all day long. This negates any edge for power serves and why Ferrer was so effective against DP's serve. Without his serve edge, Murray is left with his defensive long rallying points which, if I may say, he looked very poor against Baghdatis in the first set. Can Ferrer win tomorrow, sure quite possibly, but I feel the much SAFER bet is the OVER 40 games.

[baskets]

There are some good posts in this thread but alot of misconceptions about Ferrer. The notion that Ferrer is useless against the "big 4" is the worst one. There is no big 4 unless Soderling had of been healthy this year. Ferrer may not, at first glance, have good numbers against the top 10 but look at his numbers when you take Nadal, Fed, and Djkovic out of the equation. Ferrer had horrible numbers against those 3 but who has good numbers?

Ferrer is 6-3 against Berdych, 2-1 against Tsonga, 5-2 against del Potro, and 5-5 against Murray.Only Soderling really had Ferrers number. He is 26-17 against the top 10 since 2006 and I doubt there has been a more profitable player in tennis in the ATP top 10 to wager on since 2006. Even the stuff about Ferrer being a clay court specialist and not formidable on grass, I saw that crap on bleacher report tonight, is absurd. You can look at Ferrer numbers on grass versus Murrays on tennis insight and look at Ferrers ROI numbers.

Sorry, you're wrong. "If we take Fed, Joker, Rafa out of the question"..... lol. They ARE THE BIG FOUR. They are the cream of the crop. I posted his record against them.... 11-45. And if we take out those clay matches out of those 56 matches, it'd be even worse.


You can make all the arguments you want and say.... everybody is bad against the Big 4 ... well, hello, that's b/c they are the big four.... and Ferrer is a class below.

Pretty certain this class level will be evident tomorrow... but Muggay's schizophrenia and baby-ness will kick in to make it interesting.

Your logic just made no sense whatsoever. Despite all of Mug's gayness, he is Top 4 and has been for years. He's that good

[Balco10]

This is mirror image vs. mirror image with one in a little bigger body. Murray possesses more power as a result, but he doesn't harness that for shit on a consistent basis.

Formula is the same for me for Ferrer as the last couple rounds - start quick, put your opponent down and put the pressure and frustration on them. If Murray goes down a set ---- the pressure stacks on him more. Ferrer has no pressure here. Same as every round, he's not a good grass court player as the perceived starting point. All he does is prove people wrong. All he does is play hard and win. If there is anyone who deserves to get to a Slam Final, Ferrer is the guy. I'm holding Ferrer to win the quarter @ +1000. Obviously hedging some with Murray, but basically going to look to break even by taking Murray and get the bigger pay day with Ferrer if he wins. Ferrer isn't going to be overcome by the moment, he's been as consistent as the four guys in front of him - hell, more so. QF-SF-QF in Slams this year.

Who is your book to wager lines like that?

[JNic]

^^^^^^^^^great work as always Gregm^^^^^^^^^^^

I also want to add about the Ferrer/Murray. I hear a lot of buzz on other forums about Ferrer getting overpowered by Murray. I think the bookies put too much stock into that Cilic win. Cilic is nothing but a one trick pony with his serve. I stated in other threads and restate again , statistically grass is Ferrer's best surface!! How many more wins does he need to prove that ?? I hear a lot of talk about Murray's serve tomorrow.

An important factor that many overlooked in the Del Potro match is that these are wet humid conditions. Even indoors, these grass courts have a much lower bounce than a court that's been baked in the sun all day long. This negates any edge for power serves and why Ferrer was so effective against DP's serve. Without his serve edge, Murray is left with his defensive long rallying points which, if I may say, he looked very poor against Baghdatis in the first set. Can Ferrer win tomorrow, sure quite possibly, but I feel the much SAFER bet is the OVER 40 games.

WTF!

[Balco10]

Murray -220 large...