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Pound this line MURRAY -2.5 ......may be gone soon
Heritage hung this line today which I pounded for the maximum , MURRAY -2.5 games. Murray will cover the -2.5 games at only -115. Baghdatis was very lucky in his last match with his opponent being sick. He will get pounded into submission today.
-------------------------------MURRAY -2.5 games/-115 -------------------------
Last edited by MagicDiceFlow; 06-30-12 at 11:58 AM.
You don't want to be labelled as a shot taker at good books. Even if they pay you out, they'll eventually notice that the line was off and word spreads quickly in a small industry. Just my word of advice for the day
If they do that's fine with me. I've never took a shot at their bad lines. I gave them over $100K in straight plays action this qrtr. If they want to lose my action, fine with me. There's 5 other solid books out there that will happily take it.Originally Posted by shari91
You don't want to be labelled as a shot taker at good books. Even if they pay you out, they'll eventually notice that the line was off and word spreads quickly in a small industry. Just my word of advice for the day
umm 5Dimes has Murray -7 not -2.5 and it's +100
The key point of my post was "word spreads quickly in a small industry". Just be careful. There are many bones of posters past laying in these forums complaining that they've been blacklisted from books - including ones they've never played at - because they were labelled a shot taker. Not judging as I did it once a couple of years ago with an Aussie book... just giving a tip!
I reviewed the line and it could be a SET line. However on my pending play list, it doesnt list set or game. It actually says "GAME" .......normally it will say -2.5 SETS if it was a set line :
Wager Type : Spread (or run line)
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 575.00 / 500.00(USD)
Accepted : 6/30/2012 8:43AM - PST
Sport / Period : Tennis Other Sports / Game
Selection : A. Murray
Time : 6/30/2012 10:10:01AM - (PST)
Line : -2½ -115
Game Notes : Spread and Moneyline Match Betting. A full set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid. If a full set is not completed, all money line wagers will be canceled. On Spread all Match must be completed
Doesn't look like a set line based on that wording but I don't have an account there so I'm not sure how they normally set things up. Seems like they just slotted it in the wrong spot as Pinny's offering Murray -2.5 sets for -120.
yeah that's a Set line.
a Murray to sweep bet.
if you don't like it anymore
you can scratch out with Bags +7 gms
Its definitely a set line. Heritage does this all the time. Very misleading. Its the only handicap they offer
I'm going to roll with the punches. It is very misleading as GregM mentioned on Heritage's part. I'm gonna let it ride. I also have it parlayed with a Tsonga -2.5 which had already started.
They better not null my action if both TSONGA and MURRAY straight set their opponents today.
6/30/2012 8:43AM Spread 575.00 500.00 Other Sports - 4224 A. Murray -2½ -115 for Game 6/30/2012 8:45AM Parlay 425.00 899.28 Other Sports - 4224 A. Murray -2½ -115 for Game
Other Sports - 4225 J. Tsonga -2½ -150 for GameBACK
I'm going with the Bags +7 gms -130
everything would have to go perfect for Andy to cover this.
head 2 head: http://tennis.matchstat.com/index.ph...d_Player2=4009
That's horrible wording! If I were a new customer there and especially new to tennis, I'd have no clue that was a set line. "Wager type: Spread." Ummm, the spread in tennis = games handicap Heritage!! Many books don't even offer set lines like that.
The head to head stats may not apply to the situation at hand. Murray is in a terrific spot here. Now that Nadal is gone and Fed not playing his best, Murray will have added confidence in pounding Bags today.
Best of luck though on your play.
Bol...back to posting parlays?
Not yet, I've been waiting patiently for this first week to end. I usually dont start wagering fully on Grand Slams until after the first week. This is where I'll be at my sharpest when I've gotten a read on the player's current form.
Its is horrible. you go to tennis matchups and this is what you get. No wording at all about sets betting, its the only handicap being offered and its under the spread section.
TENNIS MATCHUPS Game Spread Money Line Total Points Team Total Points
MENS WIMBLEDON - 3RD ROUND 4:00PM (PST) 4216 @LONDON, ENGLAND Sat 6/30 4223 M. Baghdatis 10:10AM (PST) 4224 A. Murray
See that's terrible. MDF above said he gave them over 100k in action this quarter and didn't understand that line. I've been betting tennis for how many years and wouldn't know that's a set line. They should really fix that up. I guess it was just by comparing lines at other books that some people realise what it means? Which is a bit of a worry to me because you know many people aren't checking other books. Especially during a Slam which entices every casual bettor to make plays on tennis.
Okay, I've never bet point spreads in Tennis before. Does this mean that Murray will win by at least 3 games by the end of the match?
^^^^^^Yep, Shari ....you're absolutely correct. ^^^^^^^
I would hold off on this Hougigo. I believe Heritage meant this to be a -2.5 SET LINE. Which means Murray will have to straight set him. I'm still going to let it ride as I'm not a man that renigs on bets but you might want to tread carefully.
Alright thanks.
Also... Heritage is down right now for me for some reason.... can't even get on.
MDF thought he had caught an off line because everywhere else the spread is 7 or so for the games handicap which is what you were describing in your post above. And that's why I was preaching to him not to be dodgy because books talk amongst each other. Turns out Heritage means Murray will win in straight sets if you bet that. So MDF wouldn't be taking a shot - he'd just be betting something completely different to what he thought because it's not clear.
I'm actually quite disturbed by this. I wonder how many people have bet thinking they're playing the game handicap and lost the set line but didn't know enough about tennis betting to question it. Every Slam we get people asking if their handicap or set bets have won... and that's when they've been clearly labelled at books. Tennis can be confusing to bet as even hougigo showed above. I hope no one has lost money betting this stuff in error.
Last edited by shari91; 06-30-12 at 12:14 PM.
It was a good eye magic, you still got a good number on the set wagers and nothing surprises me with these tennis lines from the offshore books but this was very deceiving. Shari, you really should get an account with bovada, 5dimes, heritage etc if you dont already have one. Their lines and offerings are usually pretty awful compared to the euro books and aussie/asian books but I noticed you have really been killing it with those over 3 sets,+2.5 etc wagers lately and you play alot of dogs as well. The numbers from these books on dogs and alot of lines are much better and slower to move than alot of the euro books, I saved quite a bit last night parlaying Kvitova,Tsonga,Williams etc from betting with 5dimes last night, their moneylines were significantly lower than pinny and alot of the euro books.
I've been holding off on depositing again to Bovada. Not sure why... they just seem very same same as 365 to me but 365 offers streaming and used to have online live betting for Aussies so I still have a chunk of money in there. 5Dimes = love. Just usually skip them for Pinny or a Euro/Aussie book because I can catch better lines on women dogs. Those over 3.5 set bets have basically paid my bills for the months between Slams. I'm sure you remember when I'd try to bet totals and get stiffed by a game or worse by the hook. It became a running joke when I had my big tennis thread. But somehow I can pick out when it'll go over 3. Not in smaller tourneys though. For some reason I can't do it. But in Slams I can say with crazy accuracy that a match won't end in straights. Wish I could quantify it somehow. Heritage won't take me. I think they won't take anyone living here. Have tried a few times and it's definitely not because I'm sharp - pretty sure it's just a geographic thing although no one has ever clarified it for me properly.
^^^^^^^^^^stop kidding yourself Shari, they wont take you cus you're one sharp as nails winner pickin' lady
So wait...
You criticize Heritage for bad wording, when you were clearly taking a shot in the first place?
Both sides are wrong IMO...
If you are betting Murray -2.5 games, then you clearly were taking a shot at a bad line and its a great way to piss them off.
haha I wish... somehow I can pick crazy dogs once in awhile and those over 3.5 set bets. However - live betting is my downfall. I get too into exciting matches. Lost a good chunk of my Wimby profits on Nadal the other day and am still pissed about that. All that work finding great dogs to bet and I piss most of it away on a match like that. Not cool Shari.^^^^^^^^^^stop kidding yourself Shari, they wont take you cus you're one sharp as nails winner pickin' lady
Brian fair enough but even for someone like me who can't play there - and was harping at MDF - that is bad wording. It shouldn't be posted like that. Never is a spread in tennis referred to as the set spread. Yeah MDF knew the correct line was 7 and thought he was getting 2.5 but not everyone will. I just don't see why a book would want to open themselves to that grief. And yes I'm assuming it's a purely on the up and up thing because I don't think Heritage is dodgy at all. Just seems like an easy fix.
^^^^^^^^^^stop kidding yourself Shari, they wont take you cus you're one sharp as nails winner pickin' ladyYes she is, you really have me looking at these over 3.5 set wagers alot more shari. I should have done one of those wagers for this Ferrer match. I know Ferrer will fight but was a little worried about Roddick but this is his last wimbledon. This one has gone to 4 sets and its going to cover my over 39.5 but I could still conceivably lost my totals wager even with 4 sets. This one was perfect for that type of wager.
I woke up this morning with no intentions of wagering on the straight money lines. I never lay more than -350 juice , regardless of who's playing.
However, when this -2.5 popped up, it peaked my interest. I truly believed this was a games line not a set line. This was by no means wrongful on my end. If I wanted to be a true prick about it, I could easily call them up after the match is final and complain about the wording of this line if my wager lost, which I'm not going to do. But I clearly have a case here since it states in writing my ticket is classified as a GAME line. This was misleading on Heritage's part.
I'm confident that whatever the outcome on this match, Heritage will be raking up the money on both losers of the GAMES and SETS line which makes it wrong on their end.
With this being said, Bags will still get pounded in straights today
Last edited by MagicDiceFlow; 06-30-12 at 12:50 PM.
Yes I know... Heritage is definitely wrong in the wording, and I actually talk to the GM there on a weekly basis so I'll have to let him know about this thread and see if he can fix it.
But obviously MagicDiceFlow is in the wrong here too, taking shots at books is such a horrible idea, and most books (I don't think Heritage will) will end up freerolling him: If he wins, its a bad line and they cancel it.... if he loses, it usually stands.... Not to mention you get the reputation as a shot taker across in the industry, and that never ends up well.
You pounded the line cause you knew it was a bad line... So yes, this was wrongful and we ALL know what your intentions were: Bet a bad line.
Irregardless of people that bet on tennis regularly, there is now way someone new to tennis wagering could have figured out that line unless you knew what other books were offering. It doesnt matter in the end, I think its a winner, I just hope murray doesnt have one of his slow starts.
Those over 3.5s are brilliant. The only scary thing is the chalk as it's normally -150 to -225. Once in a rare while -250. I've lost very few of those bets. I was getting nailed betting totals in Slams - especially when they were set at 39+ and the match would go to 4 and still not hit the total because of a lopsided set or two thrown in. I would literally rant on here about how you can play 4 sets and not hit 39 games. Same as how I'd take a player with the handicap and they'd win the match but they wouldn't cover. Actually that's worse but sadly it's happened a few times.
However I haven't attempted those 2.5+ with women. I know I'm missing a big opportunity as many times the dog wins a set in WTA - often the first as I'm constantly saying I should just take my dogs 1st set and forget about them - and then goes on to lose in 3 but I just can't trust them enough to lay the chalk yet. It's just so much less stressful though... once they both win a set you can stop watching. Especially if the big dog wins one early. With totals you have to sit there calculating each game and possible scenario. I don't care if a player wins a set 6-0 and then gets bagelled the next 3. I'll still win my bet
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