First off, I planned on betting Kohl straight up, and when the line opened at -150, I simply got greedy and/or tried to be sharp, hoping for a better line. Man did that backfire.
I still can't believe how far this line has gone, but I'm not ENTIRELY surprised, because I'm sure there's heavy sharp money coming in on Kohl.
Just can't play -225 straight-up so I have no choice but to parlay and get this down a bit, and Murray is pretty much the only one I can find that is safe, or atleast should be. Some WTA favs available too but no way am I gonna risk a large wager on them nut-bars. If I do lose this because of Murray, so be it, I don't know how he's gonna lose this to Baghdatis though.
As for Kohl, the obvious fade of Rosol but I do like backing him simply from a match-up stand point as well (even if Rosol was not coming off a win against Nadal). If this was the first round, or Rosol didn't just pull of the upset against Nadal, I'm sure this line would've opened at atleast -450. As well as Rosol played against Nadal, there were still enough UE committed by him (even more than Nadal I believe), mostly on return games, which Kohl will be able to take advantage of. And given how he even struggled to break the weak serve of Nadal, Kohl's serve is much better ATM and he should be able to hold enough to pull out a win.
The winners Rosol was hitting against Nadal were just ridiculous...95mph backhand, winner after winner. These shots are simply not repeatable with him, atleast not to the extent he did last match. Kohl moves well on the court and I don't think Rosol will cruise through his service games by continuing to attack the back-hand with his serves and stretching Kohl to generate winners.
Expect a hard-fought battle if Rosol can play close to his previous level of play, but I fully expect Kohl to come out on top. As history suggests, this play hits wayyyy more often than not and players simply don't replicate their performance after coming off the biggest wins of their careers, let alone the biggest win of the year in the entire tour.
Placed the wager on bet365...better line on Kohl here than 5dimes but Murray line is slightly worse so ultimately the same return, give or take a few dollars.
1 Philipp Kohlschreiber Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Lukas Rosol
(To Win Match)06/30/2012 None -225 To Run 2 Andy Murray Marcos Baghdatis vs Andy Murray
(To Win Match)06/30/2012 None -1000 To Run
Parlays Wager Type No of Bets Unit Risk Risk To Win Returns Round Robin/2 Play Parlays 1 850.00 850.00 500.56