1. #1
    Sport_Fish
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    Big Parlay Tomorrow: Kohlschreiber + Murray

    First off, I planned on betting Kohl straight up, and when the line opened at -150, I simply got greedy and/or tried to be sharp, hoping for a better line. Man did that backfire.

    I still can't believe how far this line has gone, but I'm not ENTIRELY surprised, because I'm sure there's heavy sharp money coming in on Kohl.

    Just can't play -225 straight-up so I have no choice but to parlay and get this down a bit, and Murray is pretty much the only one I can find that is safe, or atleast should be. Some WTA favs available too but no way am I gonna risk a large wager on them nut-bars. If I do lose this because of Murray, so be it, I don't know how he's gonna lose this to Baghdatis though.

    As for Kohl, the obvious fade of Rosol but I do like backing him simply from a match-up stand point as well (even if Rosol was not coming off a win against Nadal). If this was the first round, or Rosol didn't just pull of the upset against Nadal, I'm sure this line would've opened at atleast -450. As well as Rosol played against Nadal, there were still enough UE committed by him (even more than Nadal I believe), mostly on return games, which Kohl will be able to take advantage of. And given how he even struggled to break the weak serve of Nadal, Kohl's serve is much better ATM and he should be able to hold enough to pull out a win.

    The winners Rosol was hitting against Nadal were just ridiculous...95mph backhand, winner after winner. These shots are simply not repeatable with him, atleast not to the extent he did last match. Kohl moves well on the court and I don't think Rosol will cruise through his service games by continuing to attack the back-hand with his serves and stretching Kohl to generate winners.

    Expect a hard-fought battle if Rosol can play close to his previous level of play, but I fully expect Kohl to come out on top. As history suggests, this play hits wayyyy more often than not and players simply don't replicate their performance after coming off the biggest wins of their careers, let alone the biggest win of the year in the entire tour.

    Placed the wager on bet365...better line on Kohl here than 5dimes but Murray line is slightly worse so ultimately the same return, give or take a few dollars.

    1 Philipp Kohlschreiber Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Lukas Rosol
    (To Win Match)
    06/30/2012 None -225 To Run
    2 Andy Murray Marcos Baghdatis vs Andy Murray
    (To Win Match)
    06/30/2012 None -1000 To Run
    Parlays
    Wager Type No of Bets Unit Risk Risk To Win Returns
    Round Robin/2 Play Parlays 1 850.00 850.00 500.56

  2. #2
    simplelowlife
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    Tailing for 2u. BOL. Make some $$ for an Italy play come Sunday.

  3. #3
    Sport_Fish
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    Yeah same plan here...really need this to make a play on Italy. Probly put 50% of the winnings on Italy to lift trophy.

  4. #4
    good2go2mexico
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    Agree with your analysis 100% about Kohlschreiber and I did the same thing waiting for the line to drop. I thought the public would be all over the wonder kid. I parlayed with him Cilic though for a better payout. Hope we both it.

  5. #5
    Luca Fury
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    Quote Originally Posted by good2go2mexico View Post
    Agree with your analysis 100% about Kohlschreiber and I did the same thing waiting for the line to drop. I thought the public would be all over the wonder kid. I parlayed with him Cilic though for a better payout. Hope we both it.
    I was gonna wait too, but as soon as the line jumped to -170, I panicked and bet Kohl. Now that the line moved, I'm in a potential free money spot, which is nice. I don't want to arb out on the Kohl bet, but I might if I can get Rosol above +200

  6. #6
    Sport_Fish
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    Cilic is a pretty good one too, and hell of a better price. But I'm scared of fading Querry right now. Normally would be an auto-fade but he looks like he's getting in rhythm, and if he pushes a couple of sets to tie-breaks, could end up being anyones match.

  7. #7
    ParlayininHTown
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    Absolutely killed it with Riders +7 in CFL and the Pirates at +180 (two of the worst lines I have ever seen), so I guess I could throw a small amount on some sort of parlay with Kohli in it.

    I don't really want to bet this match, though. Hard to ignore that history, as much as I want to ... Rosol can't play great again, right?

  8. #8
    GunShard
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    I noticed that Kohlschreiber never got to Round 4 at Wimbledon in his career.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philipp_Kohlschreiber


    Then again Rosol got passed the qualifying round for the first time this year.

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