You can skip the first 3 paragraphs; it's a long-winded read.
So, when I did Shari's contest, I fed the women's draw into my model and got my projections/picks for the bracket. One name, Sara Errani, really stood out; my model projected that she would go as far as the final, which was a big surprise back then since she was in Ivanovic's quarter, and Azarenka's half. After determining that my model didn't have any errors, I went ahead w/ my picks, and threw 1/4 of a unit on her (very small obviously).
Fast forward to now, and I am in a good position to make a nice chunk of cash. I can hedge out now and make a small profit by allocating funds on futures for the other 3 semifinalists.
However, I strongly believe I would be better served if I do a "two-stage" hedge. I would first put some money on Stosur straight up and wait for the result. If Errani still wins, I would perform the second stage of the hedge and put some cash on the other finalist.
My question is, what do you guys think would be the odds on the final (for both possible cases: Errani/Kvitova, Errani/Sharapova)?
I imagine it'd be similar to the current semifinal w/ Stosur (1.488), but would really appreciate the opinion of the tennis buffs here.
Thanks in advance.