1. #1
    adam3248
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    Ferrer vs Murray

    Murray may hold the slight advantage in the overall H2H record leading 5-4. However Ferrer has won all 3 of their clay court encounters.

    I've been impressed with some aspects of Murray's game recently (the improvement in his mentality and control of his emotions on court etc). However there are still some question marks regarding his overall fitness. Its safe to say that he hasn't been at 100% for some time due to discomfort from repeated back spasms. I also think there's an element of unpredictability with Murray at times that doesnt really apply with Ferrer.

    There's no standout feature to Ferrer's game, he's just a solid all-rounder. He's one of the toughest and most consistent players on the tour, especially on his favoured clay court surface. Ferrer never defeats himself, he's strong mentally and will force his opponent to play great tennis on every point to have any chance of winning, which gives you some reassurance as you know what your going to get from Ferrer each time he takes to the court, a statement that can't be said with as much conviction when referring to Murray.

    Murray has gotten off to slow starts against Nieminen and Gasquet already this tournament and although both players failed to capitalize on their opportunities, Ferrer won't be quite as forgiving and will be ready to exploit any weaknesses in Murray's game. In both of those matches, the poor starts from Murray didn't cause too much damage as he ended up prevailing with relative ease on both occassions but that wont be the case here if we see any kind of repeat against Ferrer who is yet to drop a set so far this campaign.

    I work for a bookmakers and it seems that the 'sharp money' has been coming in on Ferrer to prevail in this matchup, with his odds shortening from roughly -162 to -188.

    I am confident that Ferrer will win this match and see better value backing him on the handicap.

    Ferrer -2.5 games -138 odds

    Best of luck guys!

  2. #2
    good2go2mexico
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    Agreed. Ferrer loves the clay.

  3. #3
    baskets
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    that's a fat fukking price. take it at -3 so it's not so bloody expensive

  4. #4
    moshi
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    I like to Ferrer to win this also. The question is 3-1 or 3-2 (or 3-0)?

  5. #5
    megwa2001
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    i think ferrer to win 3-2

  6. #6
    motabl50
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    3-1

  7. #7
    adam3248
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    Cash it!! The game played out just as I expected with Ferrer winning in four sets 6-4 6-7 6-3 6-2, comfortably covering the -2.5 'games won' handicap 24-16.

  8. #8
    baskets
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    next time sell some games, friend. get more for your money.

    Muggay was not winning 2 sets vs. Ferr ... so at 3-1, 3-0 you've got a huge cap margin.

    sell to the max in this kind of scenario. there is a geometry based rule in tennis similar to this but I don't want to give it away.

    anyways, congrats on the easy win

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