First of all, I'm one of the people who hates betting futures and having money tied up - but I can't pass on this. Nadal with no juice to win the Madrid Masters is great value...and from what we've seen of him the past several matches, I don't see him being defeated.
I realize there is some concern about the new blue colour clay, and I hope it dosen't affect Nadal's game too much. But the key here is for Nadal to make it to the finals, because his opponent will be + money...and by that time, I think I should have enough to determine whether the different colour is affecting Nadal, and if so, I will hedge. But I am likely gonna let this ride. It does help that Nadal has a relatively easy draw here to make it to the finals - key potential match-ups being against Berdych, Del Potro or Tsonga. None of whom I see beating Nadal.
Dream scenario would be if Ferrer knocks out Djoker in semis, as I see him as more of a threat. Ferrer had his chance to beat Nadal when they met in the Finals a while ago, and could not get the job done after playing about the best tennis one can play. As for Djoker, I don't see a repeat of last year...I like the way Nadal has come into this clay season and is yet to drop a set on this surface. I like the play, I like the player, and I love the odds - Nadal should take care of business.
Rafael Nadal to win Outright - Risk $750 to win $750