Stepanek leads the overall H2H against Nieminen, and even in clay. He's a much better match-up than the price may indicate + more experienced. Nieminen has done absolutely nothing since Sydney and he's been eliminated in the first round for the past 4 tournaments, losing to far inferior opponents than Stepanek. And those were all hard court matches, which he's much better in than clay. I usually don't trust Stepanek but just don't see Jarkko switching surfaces and beating Stepanek on clay, being in such poor form. Neiminen has been a good fade for many of his past matches and there's no indication that will change here. In addition, Stepanek did play on this surface earlier and almost beat Tips, and if he brings that game today, he should run over Neiminen.