1. #1
    Pinocchio
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    ATP Miami: Murray - Djokovic prop

    I've noticed that Pinnacle recently put up some interesting props for tomorrow's final.


    This is what I am going to bet:

    Player to win tournament: Murray (3:1 - but in my opinion his chances of winning are at least 50%. Worth the risk, particularly in view of the fact that Djokovic is a notorious quitter. When things don't go his way or when he's 'injured', he tends to retire. I didn't make a moneyline wager here, but rather an all-in 'player to win' bet after Murray's walkover over Nadal to ensure I get paid if Djokovic retires).

    Will the first challenge be successful: No (1.435:1)
    (most challenges are unsuccessful to begin with, and although I don't have any recent stats for Djokovic, I know at least that Murray's challenge record at the AO when he played Nishikori was 0-5. I've also seen both men make challenges when they knew full well they were wrong, which warrants a large wager here )

    Who will serve the first ace: Murray (1.77:1)

    Who will have the most aces in the match: Murray (1.67:1)

    Number of aces by Murray: over 4.5 (1.7:1)
    Last edited by Pinocchio; 03-31-12 at 10:11 PM.

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