[beefcake]

People always say that rankings do not mean anything in betting tennis right? I tend to agree on that. Did some digging here with some tennis website that has some past data on all the WTA matches from 2007 on.Check this out.Why try to beat the bookies when it looks like they actually know what they are doing.Players are favorites for a reason from the looks of what I found.Mind you these numbers are only from the first round of match ups from past Indian wells matches since 2007.

I looked at rankings of players in all match-ups.So when players who were favorites and also had a worse ranking than their opponent..the record of those players were 20-9 since 2007.Really not news if you follow the game and betting trends.But for joe public bettor who just uses rankings to bet and always goes for dogs with "great value",you may be able to wait and get a great price on the fav.I agree that betting dogs can be in certain spots be profitable if you have a certain angle or know specific players tendencies..etc.., but the books aint no fools folks and they will gladly take the "public's" money on perceived "value" from uneducated bettors.


Very small sample size of course..

2011 5-1
2010 3-1
2009 2-1
2008 5-4
2007 5-2

FYI..players today that would qualify today would be...drum roll please.Navarro was favored originally, and that is what I am going by, not current line movement.looks like the public has bet the farm on Pironkova today.Not endorsing anybody because I have not capped any matches.Just going by price and rankings.

Bacsinszky -120Suarez-Nav. C. ..+145 DellAcqua..-180

[gregm]

Good stuff beef. Thanks

[beefcake]

Hopefully sometime tonight I will check the 2nd round and furthur.Curious to see if this would hold water for the men as well.This tourneys are quite different with the 32 byes,so that's why I figured an angle might be found.

Continued success Greg..

[beefcake]

Looks like ARN is the only one that meets the criteria for Thursday..

Just so everyone knows the site I used..

http://www.tennis-data.co.uk/

The odds that I used are the Bet 365 odds since they are the first ones being used on the spreadsheet.They are the easiest IMO since almost all the time when players are evenly matched up at 2.00 to 1.72(I used) to count, or 1.83 to 1.83..I passed(no fav)..1.95 to 1.85 would qualify if 1.85 was worse ranked but of course the very slight fav.I used letter of the law.

[BlueHell]

Always liked the lower-ranked favorite angle in any sport.

[beefcake]

Well for 2 picks anyway, I am a genius.Carla and Bacsinszky are both winners..

[RosieTheGreat]

interesting read.

I dont see why this cant be applied to every single tournament by surface or whatever to give you a better statistic. .

[beefcake]

Maybe so.2-1 first day.Arn retired 2nd day,king qualified and won yesterday.Halep would qualify today.

Dont really have the time to track all that.Would be very interesting to see though.Maybe this summer when I am confined as a stay at home dad I can track it.Good luck on Halep if you play it