[gregm]

YTD 41-34 +9.16

Djokovic -2.5 aces -170 risk 1.70

I have two other wagers still open.

Djokovic/Federer wins Australian Open -152 risk 1.52 (I have this open from the 15th)

Djokovic +111 to win Australian open risk 1 (posted on the 27th)

This ace prop is pretty interesting. Betonline has Djokovic -2.5 -170 (1.58) , Nadal +2.5 +140(2.4) . 5dimes has -2.5 -190( 1.52), Nadal +2.5 +150 (2.50). Pinnacle has -3.5 -136( 1.73) Nadal +123 (2.23), going to look at some other places but going with the BetOnline number for here.

I am not seeing anything on Paddy power, props are the only reason I signed up there.

These first numbers are from Nadals matches here at the Aussie, this ace wager would have covered with any of these guys including Haas and Lacko? Nadal certainly hasnt been getting those aces this tourney but he tends to really come up with these aces when he really needs them.

He has served well enough not to be broken but Nadal isnt going to win this match on that first serve. I still think his serve is his achilles heel right now. It really opens up the chance for Djokovic to end these points early. This heat and Djokovics stamina is another reason I think Novak will try and get as many strong serves in as he can, even on the second serve.

Posting these from another sheet and on my second sierra nevada, correct any mistakes if any.

Opponents aces/Nadals aces at the Australian Open

Federer Nadal

11 4

Berdych Nadal

17 6

Lopez Nadal

10 4

Lacko Nadal

8 2

Haas Nadal

8 2

Kusnetsov Nadal

5 9

Haas, Lacko,Lopez,Berdych and Federer would have all covered this number.


Numbers on aces in Djokovic/Nadal matches

Djokovics aces / Nadals aces

US open 7 2

Wimbledon 7 5

Rome 0 2

Madrid 3 3

Miami 3 5

Indian Wells 4 2

London 2010 7 6

US open 2010 5 8

London 2009 2 4

Paris 4 4

Cincinnati 5 1

Madrid 7 4

Rome 0 0

Monte Carlo 4 2

Cincinnati 2008 4 2

Queens Club 4 3

French Open 2 0

Hamburg 0 3

Indian wells 8 2

Shanghai 2007 9 3

Montreal 11 2

Wimbledon 7 4

French Open 3 3

Rome 1 2

Miami 7 1

Indian wells 3 2

French Open 2 3

I am really surprised by last years numbers, The US open is the only tourney where Novak would have covered this number on the aces prop. People know what a great returner Djokovic is, but his serve wasnt spectacular against Murray and he wouldnt have covered this number against either Ferrer or Murray.

Nadal has had his shaky times on serve and his speed is certainly down but he did at least get in 77% of his first serves in against Federer, I just am looking more at Nadals numbers this tourney. I just hope Novak is ready for this. Cheers.