>> Predicted Chance and Minimum Buy-In Based on the Ratings and Handles for each player, a combined statistic is calculated that gives an estimate of the chance of either player to win the match. This is shown as a range (a confidence interval) – the better Handle we have on each player, the smaller the range. The minimum buy-in is simply the reciprocal of the Models minimum estimated chance for each player and represents the lowest price at which you would bet if you went purely off the Model Rating.
Tsonga, I honestly don't pay attention to that number because I've found OnCourt to be more spot on over time. FWIW, they break it down as Djoko 54.1, Nadal 45.9 on a hard court. But again they don't take into account the speed of the court, etc... just the general surface.
They're supposed to be used to do this:
Current Pinny lines: -149/+140.
zero vig for Djoko = 59.8% probability of winning. zero vig for Nadal = 41.66%
59.8+ 41.66 = 101.46%
Proper probability taking into account the vig - Djoko: 59.8/101.46 = 58.9
Nadal: 41.66/101.46 = 41.01%
Since OnCourt gives Nadal a 45.9% chance winning, you should take the Nadal line. IF you believe in the validity of OnCourt's number.
But again, that's why I ignore TI's... giving a wide range like that is basically useless as far as applying it in a meaningful way to your bets. And I also don't put much stock in OnCourt's either but at least it gives you a precise number to play around with.