Still carrying over two futures for Djokovic to win the Aussie
Sharapova +122 risk 2 (posted this morning in my semifinal thread).
Sharapova /Azarenka Over 21.5 -121 risk 2.42
I liked sharapova in this match right after seeing her play Kvitova, I still think Kvitova is the best player on the tour but at least after this match we will have a new number one and the reign of Wozniacki will be over. Sharapova has looked great on serve which is always my big question mark with her and she has been in these types of high pressure finals events, Azarenka has not. In womens tennis and mens tennis mental strength is a huge factor and her experience and nerves should serve her well here.
I really dont love this side but I like the number on Sharapova, I actually like the total more. If Clijsters, Radwanska, Lisicki, and Kvitova can take Aza and Sharapova to 3 sets, they certainly can extend this match facing each other. Most people seem to be on Azarenka and the numbers lately probably justify it.
Just remember most stats on Maria pre -shoulder injury are pretty useless, basically a different player since then. Even last years stats and those beatdowns by Azarenka over Maria have to be taken into context, Maria is one of the hottest women on tour right now in 2012, 10 -0 and only dropping 3 sets all year and looking like her old self but that serve still scares me.
Serving
Sharapova served great against Kvitova, getting 66% of her first serves in and while she double faulted 10 times, she only gave up 3 breaks. Azarenka has a strong return game but her serve is not exactly dazzling either, with Aza sometimes weak forehand and both ladies tendency to double fault we should see alot of breaks in this one. Hopefully better for the over. Sharapova got 68% of her first serves in against Radwanska and nearly 70% in against Barthel. This is a massive change from last year.
2012 stats and past history
In the Aussie both players have been pretty dominant dropping only two sets apiece , Sharapova faced a 3 setter against Sabine Lisicki and Petra Kvitova. Azarenka to A. Radwanska and Kim Clijsters, so both have been tested. I really don't put much into these past stats and h2h's here, Sharapova is a totally different player after the injury and last year was was a horrible year for her considering expectations. She actually has the chance to become number 1 in the rankings for the first time tonight in about 4 years.When looking at these h2hs look at when they occurred, Sharapova could barely get a serve over the net at times. That doesnt seem to be the case in 2012.
I know people dont put much into rankings there was actually a good article in the wall street journal about the strange set up of wta and points awarded for each tourney. http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2012/0...nnis-universe/
Experience and h2h
Sharapova has been in 6 appearances in the finals of a grand slam but this is Azarenka's first, Sharapova won
Wimbledon in 2004, the US Open in 2006 and the Australian Open in 2008. Not one slam title after the shoulder injury though. Sharapova and Aza have played six times overall, h2h is 3-3 but some of those were before in 2008. No grand slam matchups.
Court
The court should help Azarenka more than Sharapova. Playing very slow.
Grunting , shrieking, etc.
I saw a funny article about bookies creating some markets on how long it would take before the chair umpire told the two players about excessive noise. Even an over /under on decibels of the shrieks. The article said
"Melbourne mathematician Dr Marty Ross said fans could expect to hear up to 900 grunts for a three-set match or about 600 across two sets. That's based on an average of around five strokes per point, six points per game and 10 games per set, he said. "So given a 6-4 set is usually about 45 minutes, this works out to about seven grunts per minute.
Supposedly the grunting helps improve the speed of the ball, you get more power when you exhale and hit the shot.
First set wager
You may want to look at the "sharapova wins first set" wager judging from a stat I was reading today. While Maria is a typically slow starter, she has really started off well winning all of her first sets this year except Radwanska.
Was going to try and put down some stats on the total but I need to run and get some food.
Taking a punt with the over and sharapova in this one. Good luck
Last edited by gregm; 01-27-12 at 10:53 PM.
Reason: typo
Yep I'm on Sharapova too - not at all confident with it and she can double fault and unforced error her way out of it at any time - but she's a fierce fighter and has been here before, and I've seen Azarenka shaky at times in this tournament - action wager only.
Good luck Ben and Balco. Fed was never at +125 that I know of though, I lost with him at -155(1.64). Very tough match to call tonight, just don't wager alot on anything tonight in my opinion.
Wow Just horrible. LOL. Sorry guys, once again I come through with an atrocious call. I once had a conversation with my mother, she said why dont you get a job in computers and go to work 40 hours a week, I told her that day trading stocks and gambling are the only places I can make a months salary in a week, why do I want to go sit in some cubicle. She said but if you go to work 40 hours a week they dont take money away from you at the end of the week. LOL
Gambling is one place where you can be rewarded for hours of research with bankroll shrinkage. Great. This is why people laugh at handicappers but I have never had any success in tennis with some of these models I have bought before and just betting on line moves and numbers has never been successful for me. I can look at my spreadsheets over the years and just see how mediocre I usually do in the Semis and Finals. Still going to end up in the black for the tourney and it was a great tourney, going to ride out the small wagers on Djokovic though after Fed and the Sharapova calls, I fully expect to lose. Good luck everybody
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