[gregm]

YTD 40-30 +15.68

I already posted Federer -155 the minute I finished watching Nadal and Berdych on dvr and thats how much I believe in recent form, especially Federers play over the last 6 months versus Nadals. One of the strangest things about this matchup is it is taking place in a semifinal and not in a finals. I am putting 3 units on this one because I had a good tourney but I really would rather watch than wager on these semifinals, I really think any of the semifinals matches, except maybe the Djokovic-Murray match, could go either way.

Obviously anyone researching this match will hear about Nadals h2h record over Federer, Fed hasn't beaten Nadal in a slam since 2007, and Nadal holds a 17-9 lead in h2h overall, but that can be deceiving. I remember the Nadal-Federer 2009 final here that Fed dropped in 5, Federer definitely had his chances to win that match. Usually you can dismiss alot of h2h stats unless you really look at the years played, the court types,injuries, recent from etc. but with Nadal-Federer, it is certainly obvious that Nadals style of play has bothered Federer in the past.

Nadal has the heavy topsin left handed forehand to Feds backhand which certainly can be unstable at times, but Feds backhand looked fantastic against Del Portro and has been one of his strongest shots lately. This match will be as much about strategy and Federer needs to get after Nadals diminished serve and get to the net as well, the New york times had a great blog about the match and one thing they pointed out was how Djokovic changed his game around to start to dominate Nadal. http://straightsets.blogs.nytimes.co...erer-vs-nadal/

Federer has looked unstoppable since the US open, winning every match he has played except a few meaningless exhibitions and this supposed withdrawal for a back injury in Doha, that doesnt seem to have been anything but strategy judging from his performance at the Aussie. Withdrawal is very rare for Federer, like that comment Nadal said about Federer at the start of the open " Federer has got a super body, and he'll finish his career as a rose. Neither myself, nor [Andy] Murray, nor [Novak] Djokovic are going to finish our career as a rose."

Federers stamina is incredible for a 30 year old man, but I would really be surprised to see this one go to 5. Nadal just hasnt looked right in a while especially on serve and the match in London seems to be more indicative of where these two guys are right now than matches that happened years ago. If Fed can get that first serve in and get Nadal playing way behind the baseline as he has done in the past, I think Federer could control these rallies and Nadals serve is a major question mark.

Some people have talked asked about court speed and conditions favoring Nadal, Tennis insight always has a great writeup under profile of each tournament http://www.tennisinsight.com/tournamentid17235.htm and from reading about how the court is playing this certainly favors nadal and even mentions the heavier wilson balls they use and the humidity. All of this lends itself to a slower court, almost a hard version of clay at times which certainly favors Nadal.

I just have to go with form here and the hottest player in tennis over the last 6 months who certainly should have a great strategy after watching Djokovic adapt to Nadals game last year.

Federer -155 risk 3.10

Azarenka looked horrible in that tie break the other night against Radwanska and she definitely has her mentally weak moments. She always scares me when I wager on her, but she is one of the best players in tennis right now when she is on her game. This one might be close but if Clijsters tries to get into long rallies with Azarenka she is going to lose.

Motivation is always a huge factor and crowd support should certainly favor Kim but I really think Azarenka could win this tourney and get her first major if she can keep it together, she definitely needs to dictate the tempo with Clijsters in this match because Clijsters is just too strong and experienced for Azarenka, especially if it turns into a defensive match and Azarenka doesnt force her game on Clijsters.

Azarenka should be able to move Kim around alot more than Wozniacki did, Azarenka is a much more aggressive type of player than Woz and should make Kim really move in this one. Woz was the perfect opponent for Clijsters at that time but I still think Clijsters looked to be running out of gas in that second set. Azarenka is worth a punt at these numbers

I was on the wrong side of this line move judging from where it will end up but this is the number I got when I put it in my other thread.

Azarenka -125 risk 1.25

Azarenka -1.5 +100 risk 1

[Bbr]

FEd is a gd pick. Fed wins 3-1

[qsilver335]

I agree, Fed gets the win. Might have to go to 5 though.

[PLF]

Nice write up.

I'm going with Fed too and can see him winning in even straight sets though 3-1 is probably the safest bet.

At this point, I'm just debating two things.

Whether I should bet on a 3-1 or 3-0 which are at 1 to 4 odds and much tastier than the 1.67 ML bet on Roger and HOW much to risk. I'm thinking of going bigger than 3 units. More like 5.

[MeatWad]

Very good write up, good reasoning and I agree with your pick. I watch the matches closely and am already on Federer big. Good luck!

[freshguy222]

if nadal plays like he did in the 4th set against berdych he's gonna win, he will be pumped up
who has federer really beaten in his good stretch? at the end of last year the superstars were all banged up and here he beat tomic(oh well) and del potro who fought against the heat primarily

[SHANSTER72]

Good writeup! Have watched a lot of tennis this week and I think Roger is the pick from what I have seen.Keep hearing about Nadals knee but it dont seem to bother him much from what I can see.Fed just looks sharp with that backhand.New at tennis but will be taking fed tonight.

[SHANSTER72]

New 2 tennis but Fed looked awesome up 2 nadal and his bad knee.Congrats to nadal. Still learning that head to head means alot on certain courts I guess because I thought fed was the pick of the semis.Watched all matches to this point.Seems the top 4 r pretty unbeatable %95 of the time looking at the stats.

[gregm]

Sorry guys , I hope nobody read that and looked more at federer. I just finished watching this on dvr, just an awful match by Fed.

[EaglesPhan36]

No worries Greg. You've been solid. Federer is just mentally beat against Nadal. All you said was true leading up, Federer in the best form of any men's player IMO and Nadal had looked wonky ... but Nadal is just a damn warrior and a big match player - at least against Federer. We'll see if he plays Djokovic, will suck if he's got that same mental block with Djokovic that Fed has with him because then some of these finals are going to be really anti-climatic.

[gregm]

Thanks eagles. I just hate spending hours researching something and you are repaid with all your hard work with "bankroll shrinkage" , like george costanza after getting out of the cold water. Thats one thing I always try to figure out at the end of a tourney ,when I look at my numbers is how much time I spent versus how much profits I made. Was it worth it. This tourney was, but I spent way too much time researching this match and the azarenka one, at least the aza ml hit but I always have bad numbers in these semifinals. Just a poor selection.

Bad way to start the day and even worse that djokovic match seems almost impossible to wager on. I am already missing watching the Aussie every day. Great call on Sharapova

[freshguy222]

nadal always plays up to his competition, it is not easy to predict his real form, but you have to see the players he played and berdych was just a bad matchup for him and i figured he played well against him

[PLF]

You did make me even more sure of Federer, Greg, but no problem because with or without you,. I would've placed the bet anyway as I really thought Roger will take this and if anything, I liked your post and found it very informative.

What I did last night however was put a big 'futures' bet on Djoker winning Australian Open and a smaller bet on Fed beating Nadal. The way I saw it is, if Fed beats him which I thought was likely, then great but if Nadal somehow comes through, it'd probably be because of the Head to Head mentality edge and if that's the case, I don't see how he will beat Nole having been raped by him all year long last year!

So I figured since I can't see Nole losing to Murray or Nadal and only possibly to Fed, then this futures bet would work well in case Nadal wins and if Fed was to have won, I could've hedged it anyway as Roger would've been the underdog.

As it turns out, I was wrong about the Fed vs. Nadal match (Most of us were) and Rafa deserved to go through with a great performance. Will he be able to get revenge from Nole though? I don't know! If the cool, composed, confident, more experienced Roger can't get over that mental edge of H2H matches, then I don't expect Nadal to be able to just forget about 2011 so easily and beat Djoker.

So I lost the bet last night but am confident about Djoker taking this now unless there's an injury or something.

EDIT: Also, I put that futures bet on Novak because like you said, the price on betting on him vs. Murray is just not worth it and too juicy. And since I don't see him losing to anyone but maybe just maybe to Fed in final, I thought it's better to bet on him to win whole thing with only 2 matches left and BEFORE Fed vs. Nadal match has started in case Rafa wins it because then I expect that would impact and reduce odds on Djoker winning it all and it has. 5dimes has Nole at 2.24 now but before last night, it was 2.35. Not a big difference but a difference nonetheless.

[benrama]

I know the feeling - generally the more I cap a game the worse results I get, that's because there's such a thing as "over-capping" and also sometimes having already some gut feel as to your pick and just re-enforcing it rather than really looking objectively.

Reading what you wrote above - you capped this game "right", but Rafa just has the intangible mental edge over Federer, and has one thing that Federer just can't escape - a weakness on the high backhand. Must be frustrating for Fed to be so great and just have one guy that mentally has got him and found his kryptonite.

Funny thing is that same mental edge applies to Joker over Nadal (IMO) and Federer over Joker.

As for Murray I put no faith in the guy - mental toughness of a watermelon - and if he gets up early I'll be looking to live bet on Joker.

[PLF]

That's what I'm saying. If Nadal has a mental edge over Fed because of their H2H, then he must have that same thing as his downfall even WORSE against Djokovic because of the way things went most recently in 2011 for him against the Serb.

That's why I'd be very surprised if Rafa wins the tourney. Unless Murray was to upset Djoko somehow which I don't see happening.

[benrama]

True, but the difference is that Nadal's edge is also based on him having a clear weak spot in Fed he can take advantage of.

The fact that Nadal is -150 to not win the Aus Open though is telling.

[PLF]

I'd say if Djokovic took care of him so consistently recently (All year long last year basically) and so easily, he definitely has figured out Nadal's 'weak-spots' in his head as well.

[qsilver335]

I think you would have to say its Djokovic's to lose now more than ever with the Nadal win.

[benrama]

I'd say if Djokovic took care of him so consistently recently (All year long last year basically) and so easily, he definitely has figured out Nadal's 'weak-spots' in his head as well.

Sorry I should have been clearer - Nadal knows he can pepper the Fed backhand all day and Federer will not be able to handle it. Federer knows this too, that's why he's standing so much in his backhand court to try to hit a forehand and going for his backhand more to keep the points short. If he can force Nadal to give him forehands, and his forehand is firing he still has a chance against Rafa - just hard to do this over 5 sets.

Rafa has no real weakness that is equivalent, but his serve on hard courts has got much slower and this plays even more into the Joker's hands.

Still - Rafa is an epic fighter so I think a Nadal v Djokovic final could be a potential classic.

[gregm]

YTD 40-32 +12.58

Djokovic +111 to win Australian open

Sharapova +122 risk 2

Djokovic -247 risk 2.47


Thanks guys. I am with you on the Djokovic future PLF and Ben. Another long post for a bet thats probably going to lose, LOL, so take from it what you will. I have had a few pints tonight so if any mistakes, correct them for me.

Serving - I really believe Murrays serve and the Djokovic return game is probably what a good deal of the matchup relies on and its why I like Djokovic. Djokovic has been a beast as usual on return , breaking Ferrer 5 times, Hewitt 8 times and Mahut pretty much the whole match. Djokovic has 37 service breaks in 5 matches here at the Aussie, that is an incredible stat.

Murray served much better against Kukushkin, LLodra, and Vasselin than he did against Nishikori ,but he did drop a set against Harrison and really hasnt been tested at the Aussie so far. Murray did put up some rather mediocre serving numbers against Nishikori but keep in mind he was in control of most of that match, Murray faced 8 break points and got his first serve in only 44% of the time, Nishikori just looked spent.

I really think the only chance Murray has here is to get that first serve in at a high percentage and somehow pull out a set out here, and hope Novak might have stamina issues. Right now Djokovic is eating up his opponents second serve and his return game seems like hitting to a brick wall.

2012 numbers - Its really hard to go on the last 6 months with either of these guys as they both sort of crawled to the finish line to end 2011. Of course, there hasnt been a hotter player in tennis than Roger Federer over the last 6 months but that didnt add up to much last night. Murray has only dropped a set here at the Aussie but he has really benefited from a rather easy path to the semis, he looked great winning in Brisbane but I am now under the impression Tomic may have wanted to get to his car and the beach as quickly as possible.

Murray has yet to face anyone in the top 10 since November so you have to keep that into context when you look at alot if his numbers, but he has only dropped 3 sets in his 10 matches this year and does seem to be playing with a new focus under Lendl.

Everyone knows about Djokovics year in 2011 and Novak is also also looking to join a pretty elite club, becoming the fifth man in the history of tennis to win three consecutive grand slam titles in the Open Era with Rod Laver, Sampras, Nadal and Federer. His path to the semis has been alot tougher than Murrays and facing some tough opposition like Ferrer and Hewitt may help him.

H2H and surface stats - 6-4 Djokovic overall but only 3 matches in the last 3 years. 2-1 to djokovic last year, but only one Slam matchup between these guys. Alot of that has to do with the draws of previous years and the dominance of Nadal and Murray matchups, while it's rare to see a nadal /federer semifinal its even rarer that Djokovic/Murray are even meeting in a Slam.

Not much to really gain from the numbers last year, Djokovic retires in Cincinnati, Murray was worn out in the Australian final last year from match with Ferrer. I know people are going to focus on last years beat down of Murray by Djokovic here at the Australian final but I am finding it really hard to gauge much from h2h stats and their h2h hard court stats .

Lendl and attitude - Hopefully Lendl can help Murray can deal with the negativity that sometimes surfaces in his game, this is a big part of the reason they brought Lendl into the Murray camp, to win games like this one and get a Grand Slam under his belt.

I think the biggest thing Ivan brings to the table is Lendls mindset and a more offensive game. Murray is going to fall behind in this match, and Murrays only chance in my opinion is if Djokovic does have trouble with stamina here and Murray can extend this match, he shouldn't start getting negative, but thats been a big problem throughout Murrays career. I remember seeing Lendl with my Dad at the US open and his style of play may really help get Murray out of a defensive mindset, Djokovic will crush him if he falls back into that defensive and passive return game.

Aussie Open - Murray has been to the last two finals here at the Aussie and some people say its his favorite Slam, he certainly hasnt ever made it to any Wimbledon finals, much less two in a row. Djokovics numbers in slams last year was incredible, he’s won 30 of his last 31 matches in Slams and here at the Open he has two titles and been to two quarter finals since 2008.

Djokovics health - Was he playing possum or really hurt during the ferrer match? The ever present breathing issue is pretty interesting especially with that news last year during last years US Open about the altitude cpac device that he was supposedly using last year , the space egg.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/novak-d...4#.TyJBX2NAZ1w I doubt Novak would ever come out to court like lady gaga in the egg or U2 in the lemon but if he did all bets are off, he has won this match. . Novak should be ready for this physically from the articles I have read. Djokovic had the breathing incident in the Ferrer match, he claims he is not using the space egg but the breathing and the conditioning is one of the most interesting changes i have seen from Nole in his game

I really am a little worried with this wager if Murray can grab an early set but I still think Djokovics changes in conditioning last year was one of the big factors in his rise. All these guys have the stamina to last the best of 5 set matches but I am lucky to have the stamina to finish this post much less stay up for this match. I am sleepy and staying up all night will just ruin my day. DVR this baby and getting another Pliny the younger IPA. Pitiful.

Djokovic's return game, Murrays serve and how he reacts when falling behind, 3 Grand slams in a row, 30 of 31 games in slams the last year, 37 breaks in 5 games, and Novaks ground game that he should dictate from the middle of the court should be enough to win this. How will Murray respond if he falls behind, mentally has Lendl got him ready to win these type of matches? Going to sleep expecting this wager to lose after Fed last night, I loved that wager. Please dont follow this pick. Space egg.

[pimike]

Get some sleep and wake up a winner!!!

[MagicDiceFlow]

Great write up and insight Greg. I already placed my bets but always a pleasure to read your posts.

Best of luck tonight!

[Boxing Champ]

Where do you put the paper????
Would't it slide off???

[gregm]

Thanks guys, good to see you betting tennis Mike. I know you are ready for baseball, I am heading to spring training soon in March. Florida in the spring , good Florida seafood, , the beach and baseball and I am a happy man.

Space egg comes through again. Djokovic really looked bad and I fell asleep and wake up to watch it on dvr and he looks like a new player. Here are some of the more interesting quotes from his press conference. Sounds like the breathing is definitely just allergies.

I just hope this isnt like final last year where Murray just left everything on the court during the Ferrer match, and Djokovic just crushed him. Nadal must have loved watching this last night. I like his tone in this and Novak didnt look too bad celebrating at the end of the match. He should be fine with two days rest, he mentions having to play the next day a finals after a 5 setter with Federer.



Q. During the match, you got messages coming in from around the world people wondering how you managed to look so dead in the second and third sets and still managed to come through. How did you manage to come through?

NOVAK DJOKOVIC: You have to find strength in those moments and energy, and that keeps you going, I guess. At this level, very few points decide the winner, as it was the case tonight.

I think we both went through a physical crisis. You know, him at the fourth set, me all the way through the second and midway through the third. Had some chances in those sets.

Q. This breathing problem, are you seeing a doctor about it or is it related to hayfever or something?

NOVAK DJOKOVIC: Yeah, I've seen doctor and I've talked with some people. I don't know. I've talked with couple of players that have a little allergy problems this year in Australia for now reason, ones they didn't have in last couple years but they had reactions this year.

I suppose that's my problem, as well. I've been trying to, you know, do everything possible to clear that out. But, you know, we are all surrounded with the flowers. It's really difficult to take that away. But still, you know, I mean, no excuses.

It was very physical from both sides, from both players all the way through the end. For these kind of matches, you really practice all your life to be able to be a winner out of five sets.

Q. What effect do you think it will have to have spent so much physical energy and have to play Nadal?

NOVAK DJOKOVIC: There is no secret it is going to be physical again. I will do my best to recover. I have a day and a half. I will try to get as much sleep and recovery program underway and hope for the best.

Q. You had a great run against Rafa whenever you met him last year. What, if at all, will that play on your mind or on his mind?

NOVAK DJOKOVIC: That's something that we are about to see, you know, on Sunday. Yet again, I'm repeating that physically I need to be fit. I know that I maybe have a mental edge because I've won six finals the five or six times we played in 2011 and I've had lots of success against him.

Q. Do you take any encouragement from the fact when Rafa won it here a couple years ago the role was reversed?

NOVAK DJOKOVIC: I mean, we are all different so we all have different scheduling, different programs that we respect with our teams. We all have different bodies that require more or less time to recover, so I can't really compare that to him.

But I have been in similar situations, let's say, before where I had the long matches and I'm supposed to play, like, for example, a couple years back with Roger I had a very long match, and then the next day I was supposed to play finals.

So, you know, we are familiar with these kind of conditions and situations, so we will try to take the best out of it and recover.

Q. What will you do for the next 48 hours to get yourself ready?

NOVAK DJOKOVIC: As I said, try to get as much sleep. I don't think I'll practice much. I think I had enough time spent on the court. Now it's all about recovery.