1. #1
    gregm
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    Day 5 picks

    I am going to be gone today so going to get these in this morning. I will add up ytd later , I think I was down around a little less than 2 units for the day on posted picks. It was great to wake up to a Roddick retirement, I had the total but I still would have liked to have watched this match on dvr, and a 5 set Simon loss. Nice.

    Goerges -165 (betonline) risk 1.65 The Schiavone win was surprising for Oprandi, I always like Schiavone as a great dark horse to win these slams and Oprandi is playing well at least judging from these numbers, I wish I had of seen her play recently. Oprandi has excellent hard court stats but alot of challenger tourneys skews these stats. She did have an impressive win over Clijsters last year at hertogenbosch and the Schiavone win was very impressive, though Schiavones numbers looked horrible from that match. I saw someone on one of the ti thread mention Schiavone basically beat herself.

    Goerges lost to Sharapova last year at the Aussie in the round of 32 and and Woz in the round of 64 the year before but her numbers on this surface are quite mediocre, I would imagine that plays a large role in this low line. They had one meeting at the US Open in 2010 that Goerges won pretty convincingly.

    Looking at Oprandis numbers reminds me of looking at Ito in the mahut/ito match. I just dont see anything in her record to warrant taking the small handicap with Oprandi, of course Ito came out with guns blazing yesterday and I do think he may worth watching, in the womens game there is much smaller window to start slow like Mahut did, so I hope Julia comes out strong. In her two matches here at the Open, Goerges didnt face much of a battle from Daniilidou who retired in the second set and beat Hercog in straight sets. Going with Goerges in this one.

    Benesova- 180 risk 3.60 I cant believe I am betting almost 4 units on Benesova but she looked great against Peng and in Brisbane taking care of Stosur. Even though Bratchikova beat Pennetta, that doesnt really impress me as it may have at one time. Total different class of players here. Benesova made it to the round of 16 here last year and while her numbers on hard court are not impressive, I think she is definitely worth a punt at these numbers.

    Azarenka /DelPotro/ Jankovic -162 risk 3.24 More juice than I usually like to have on a parlay but I dont see much else that I really love, I wouldnt be surprised to see alot of favorites not covering these handicaps today.

    Wawrinka -4.5 -125 risk 1.25

    Dolgolopov +120 risk 1 This may be the square pick of the day but looking at the numbers its hard not to take it.
    Last edited by gregm; 01-19-12 at 12:31 PM. Reason: spelling goerges LOL. bad omen

  2. #2
    beefcake
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    Good luck on your parlay, but you know my take on Barthel, she is dangerous dog tonight. Azarenka should roll here on paper..but stranger things have happened.

  3. #3
    gregm
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    You may be right beefcake, Barthel is definitely a live dog and Jankovic shouldnt have it easy either. I wouldnt touch Jankovic with the handicap but I am just not sold on McHale yet. Should be an interesting night. Good luck

  4. #4
    gregm
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    Adding Isner/lopez over 42.5 -125 risk 1.25

    Isner -1.5 -109 risk 1.09

    Kohli/Falla over 37.5 -120 risk 1.20

    del Potro -7.5 +114 risk 1

    Wozniacki/Clijsters/Berdych/del potro -149 risk 2.98

    I am glad to see eagles on some of these, probably way too many wagers today but God, I am so glad to have tennis back.

  5. #5
    benrama
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    Greg - Isner to win 3-2 pays +498 and Lopez 3-2 pays +611, hard to see the game going over 42.5 without it going 5 sets - one 6-3 set probably has the bet losing.

    Like most of your other plays except Wawa.

  6. #6
    gregm
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    Those are some awesome numbers Ben. I am from an gambling impoverished nation though, the United States. The few US facing offshore books still worth a damn rarely offer much set betting anymore on tennis or even many props at all. I have access to pinnacle through a friend in Eruope I grew up playing soccer with but I dont abuse it, I am a gambling addict and I gamble all the time and he has a family so I try to keep it to a minimum.

    You guys with access to euro and asian/aussie books dont realize how good you have it. The live wagering options,the odds ,the options, though pinnacle sucks for live betting. 5dimes, BetOnline are pretty good for tennis but they pale in comparison to the euro and aussie/asian books.

  7. #7
    benrama
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    True 'dat - I feel for you guys in the 3rd world of online betting there in the USA, pretty crazy how your government treats online gambling. I think eventually the industry will emerge more tightly regulated and bigger than ever, and it hopefully will stop some of the shady activity that books get away with today - i.e. it might not be a bad thing. Could take years though.

    Pinnacle sucks for live tennis betting but is OK for NBA/NFL - best lines live there as well. I pretty much only use bet365 for online tennis betting, shitty lines but you can exploit the over-reactions that happen point to point.

    You can pretty safely use a VPN to access your Pinnacle account in Europe, no?

  8. #8
    benrama
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    And BTW, nice hit on Benesova. I liked her too but only put her in a parlay with Azarenka and Berdych as I hate laying juice with any of these girls - hopefully Goerges gets her act together too.

  9. #9
    gregm
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    Yeah I have a vpn out of england so I can watch bbc mainly, but that is not the problem, its getting paid and getting money in thats the problem. To be honest with you, I have been very happy not to have access to live wagering. 5dimes will throw up a few matches and lines, and I always love studying the lines and learning about euro/aussie/asian books but from a health standpoint, I dont miss live wagering at all.

    The happiest I am is placing my bet turning on tennis and going through my papers and relaxing with a drink and watching hot bitches like Goerges lose me money, LOL. Not crouched over some damn computer waiting for some live line to move all the time..

    You are dead on the money about regulation helping things, all these companies are lining up to get into the US market, its why you see these companies like partypoker/bwin paying these huge fines to the us government, they want licenses. These US facing offshores take people for granted, 5dimes just puts out the worst numbers you can imagine, even betonline does a much better job, and these other offshores are just comical in their tennis offerings. It will be amazing if I finish this year in the black with the numbers I am having to work with, but I said the same thing about baseball when matchbook and pinnacle pulled out and this year was the best year I have ever had in Baseball, go figure.

    Americans don't have as much fun as you guys are having at the moment with our limited choices.The US facing offshores have no creativity when it comes to their customers and their offerings, they could be doing so much more but maybe they just figure why bother, we arent going anywhere.

  10. #10
    gregm
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    Thanks, I just wish I had of taken the handicap with Bensova and been up 3.5 units but I am very happy with the result.

  11. #11
    gregm
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    Goerges- 23 unforced errors, 51 percent first serve percentage

  12. #12
    benrama
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    Yep - live wagering can really sap your enjoyment of sports betting if you get into it too much, worst thing is having it on your phone 24/7 and resisting when you are watching a game. That said, when Bet365 is offering Goerges at >$3 as they were just a few games ago, hard not to place a small punt. So many chances to lock in profits with that book too, if you could take the emotion of it - impossible for me, but hypothetically - then you could make a living off this live betting, I'm convinced of it. You'd also wake up one day realising you'd spent your whole life staring at odds on a computer screen. Take the enjoyment out of betting and I'm out of here.

    I think online poker will probably be first to clean it's act up online, and sports will come soon thereafter, there's too much tax $ at stake here for the government not to eventually sort something out. In the meantime, just pretend the lines you are getting are razor sharp and if you can win those you'll make a killing when you are back on Pinny!

  13. #13
    Fidel
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    Is dolgo really a square play when Tomic is playing on home court?

  14. #14
    gregm
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    Quote Originally Posted by benrama View Post
    Yep - live wagering can really sap your enjoyment of sports betting if you get into it too much, worst thing is having it on your phone 24/7 and resisting when you are watching a game. That said, when Bet365 is offering Goerges at >$3 as they were just a few games ago, hard not to place a small punt. So many chances to lock in profits with that book too, if you could take the emotion of it - impossible for me, but hypothetically - then you could make a living off this live betting, I'm convinced of it. You'd also wake up one day realising you'd spent your whole life staring at odds on a computer screen. Take the enjoyment out of betting and I'm out of here.

    I think online poker will probably be first to clean it's act up online, and sports will come soon thereafter, there's too much tax $ at stake here for the government not to eventually sort something out. In the meantime, just pretend the lines you are getting are razor sharp and if you can win those you'll make a killing when you are back on Pinny!
    Don't get me wrong , I miss the hell out of live wagering, I am probably just trying to make myself happy by saying that its good for my health I am not doing it much.. You know you are addicted to it when you go to a nightclub and you are checking your phone for scores and lines, its a great rush and a great way to make money if you have discipline. I would rather stay at home and watch tennis, wager ,eat good food and good beer than go out, the problem is I havent found alot of women that gamble or care about it. LOL.

    The problem with live wagering I have is that I have kept every wager I make on a spreadsheet for years and I have all the amounts and when I do well,players I do well on, etc. The problem is I never record my live wagers so I really dont know my numbers on it.

    I remember the wins for sure but God, I have lost alot live wagering, its the only time in the world they can juice both sides of the line ridiculously and get away with it. You have to be so disciplined and not just hedge bad bets, so easy to end up with alot of losing wagers on the same game.

    I agree about poker, its amazing how much better the euro books are than the us facing offshores, I am sure bet365 has the oprandi/goerges match streaming in great quality and most Americans are forced to watch choppy first row sports streams if they dont have directv. Live wagering is such a great rush when you win,congrats on goerges!

    cheers

  15. #15
    gregm
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel View Post
    Is dolgo really a square play when Tomic is playing on home court?
    I was just being self deprecating, if you are a numbers person and like stats, dolgo at plus money is the only sharp play in my opinion. Then again, this game isnt all about stats, h2h records, etc either.

  16. #16
    benrama
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    Agree with everything you say Greg on live wagering, and yes I know the feeling of being in a nightclub/pub/toilet/bloody anywhere and be checking your text messages *cough* scores. Nothing like feeling like you've nailed a great live bet either.

    As for tonight, I think Dolgo has to be the bet too - Tomic is just a complete soft-c**k mentally and physically, not that Dolgo is much better, but Tomic is way over-rated in my opinion. Hate to say it though - I think the best opportunities tonight will be live betting

  17. #17
    gregm
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    Another great advantage of being in europe/asia, I would love to live wager on that one . You were right about Wawrinka, one player who is always on my do not bet list, I just didnt like almagro on this surface.

    This Isner match might interesting to wager on, serious problems with his footwork and toe injury. Watch his reactions to his coaches through this.
    Last edited by gregm; 01-20-12 at 12:52 AM.

  18. #18
    boondoggle
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    @gregm

    Thanks for the Benesova pick

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