[gregm]

YTD 16-12 +7.54

I will probably have more plays later but I wanted to get these in.

Bogomolov Jr. -2 -117 risk 1.17 I have always like Bogomolov, the guy is a fierce competitor and his win against Murray last year was something. His stats on hard are pretty good, he had a very good match against Traver to start the Aussie off and beat Troicki and Haase at Sydney. LLodra is not getting any younger , he did have great year in 2010 and reached 21 in the rankings in 2011 but is pretty poor on hard courts. He seems to be really doing well in the doubles circuit and they play tomorrow as well. I like bogo here.

Chela +132 risk 1 Everyone is on Andujar on TI because they see the +132 (2.38) number on Andujar against a guy like Chela who is not exactly a hard court specialist. These odds are the way they are because Andujar is not a hard court player, he is 1-9 on his last hard court matches and 7-22 overall on the few matches he has played on the surface.

I hate betting on matches like these but this last matchup between Chela and Andujar was an indoor hard surface and judging from the stats seemed to have been dominated by Andujar. You have to take the better number, the younger guy and the recent experience on a coin flip match like this. I hate betting on the same pick as the majority of the punters on TI, I rarely win these.


O21 Lisicki/ Peer This one is a tough match to call, Lisicki should be here at much higher odds but she really didnt have a good first round match and may not be 100%. Going with the total in this one.

Mahut -170 risk 1.70 I dont like this kind of juice on ml pick and I have never made any money of Mahut. I thought about the over and may look at some more stats later. Mahuts win over Stepanek was surprising but he has done pretty well at the Aussie, making it to the round of 64 every year since 2007. His numbers on hard court are passable, nothing spectacular.

I dont understand the love for Ito on the boards, he played well in Brisbane and looked good in his win over Starace was but I dont see anything in his career numbers or wins to make me think he will crack the top 100 but he is still young. He had never made it out of qualifying at a slam until the US open last year and he has never been this far at a slam. I really like this wager but we will see.

Zheng -4 -110 risk 1.10

Simon -2 -108 risk 1.08

[boondoggle]

Thanks

[beefcake]

Amazing turn around for Bogo last year. Rooting for him even though he is playing for Russia now...

[caboman]

I have Chela at -185. Still value there?

[benrama]

Whoah - did Chela's line open at +135?? That would have been an insta-play - it's now -172 at Pinny. Value is firmly back on Andujar.

I'm a Bogo fan too and like the effort he brings - I also take pleasure seeing Llodra lose, so bet against him almost for my own entertainment.

[gregm]

Sorry guys, that actually that should have read Andujar +135. I lost big on this number I am seeing it at +154 ( 2.54) at Pinny right now. I hate following the punters on Ti on this one but I am, that last showing by Andujar was pretty dominant. I would never lay -170 on chela on hard courts. Neither of these guys are hard court guys by any means.

Adding another unit on Mahut -4.5 +105 risk 1

Roddick/ Hewitt o38.5 +105 risk 1

Murray/ Vasselin o26 -130 risk 1.3

[JNic]

bogomolov jr is a really good pick imo, GL with that