Groth/Kravchuk easy no break points 1st set. 10bet not having a line for the o12.5 in 2nd set for some reason though despite having it up for both the 1st set and 3rd set. Just another one of those weird things 10bet does.
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Well... Hopefully my bad luck is gone and some luck now goes my way. 10bet didn't offer the tiebreak in just the 2nd set and that's the set that misses and the other 2 sets hit.
Odds are out for Busan Challenger. Bolt is @2.6 vs Groth, which is a bit low but Groth has proven before to be vulnerable in 1st round matches as well as surface type changes. Kudry is @2.6 but from what I've seen of him this year, he has been pretty ordinary. Lim's @3.2 and going up against Kudla, which could be a decent play. Saville @2.8 and Nam @3. Not sure if at this stage I want to play anything. Will decide closer to game time.Comment -
Haas @3.4, qualifier match
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Hell of a call on the breakers on Groth/ Kravy.
Wow Chung comes home after much fanfare.Wonder how he will handle the pressure?
And Skugor moved up 229 spots with his chally win..WOW!!!Last edited by beefcake; 05-03-15, 08:58 AM.Comment -
skugor definitely better than his ranking suggests bt he was very fortunate to beat yang who missed a handful of breaks to win yesterday
chung actually made the sf at busan last yr. slowly starting to like his game more bt his ranking is a bit deceiving atm. hes pretty much doing wat players like klahn, ebden nd a bunch of other players did by playing challengers to get deep into the top 100. think his true ranking would b closer to the 150 mark bt hes definitely improving nd should b a legit top 100 player soonComment -
Agree on Chung. Wow a crap ton of challis this week. Might want to fade Skugor..Might try and drink it up and get laid. Wonder if anyone has ever backtested the record of any player in their next match after winning their first chally or future title.Comment -
haha not sure but Skugor has been playing for awhile now and aint his first win in a final. he verses moriya tmrw who has been in pretty bad form this year and skugor won in 2008 against him which was long time ago. skugor is also better on clay for some bizarre reason despite being relatively tall, having a good serve, and not having great movement. odds are only @2 for skugor tho so not really worth it either wayComment -
its so sad watching hw bad jenkins is this year. was so promising last year and now every single aspect of his game is a weakness. cant serve anymore, cant return anymore (getting aced by chung), and unforced errors from both wings. there is nothing in his game that isnt a weakness, whereas last year you could say he had no weaknesses and did everything well but not great at any one thing.Comment -
Dustov @3.25Comment -
+$3709
Counting Dustov as a loss. Too painful watching it anymore and no chance he comes back.Comment -
Cadantu @3.25Comment -
Muguruza @2.75Comment -
galfi @3.75Comment -
I think ive forgotten how to bet or something since King missed the smash on match point. ive gone like 1-15 sinceComment -
So how many quarters of your life savings did you chuckle on Ymer @ 2.7 after 1:st??Comment -
Bonzi @2.75 2-2 2nd setComment -
and it continues... Bonzi 0/8 break points with 4 in one game and had his opponent at deuce in over half his service games. The 1 break point he gives up at deuce and he gets broken.Comment -
Some random leans for tomorrow. Only taken Kyrgios 1st set for now.
vanni +4/+4.5
kyrgios +4.5 and 1st set @3.7
kohl
pavly
nam
skugor
gasquet
fabbianoComment -
Zhang @3.5Comment -
Don't understand how after 4 months of this strategy being perfect, it had gone completely the other way.
I'll persist for a bit longer but if it carries on, I'll likely need to look for ways to tweak and change this strategy.
+$3209Comment -
ito @3.4 2xComment -
zhang @2.6
if ito loses the above, i mite just leave. its rare to find a matchup that lopsided at such odds.Comment -
bang...even if you are drawing from a constantly-reshuffled deck that you--as god of the cards--can assure is composed of exactly 60% Black (winners) and 40% Red (losers)...
There is no way in hell or heaven to stop what seems like highly-improbable periods that are painfully rich in Red cards being randomly drawn.
the good news is that you can rewrite the above, replacing the word Red (with Black) and painfully (with pleasantly)...explaining why you seem to be happy with what you do most of the time...
but frustrated when these seemingly-unexplainable loss-/choke-rich periods take hold...but they're actually perfectly natural=inevitable once you realize that all events are in effect nothing more than real-time drawings of the latest result-cards...aka. random sampling
as day follows night follows day follows night, win-rich periods must alternate with loss-rich periods and vice-versa...and the account equity follows along, toggling up and down...
as long as the chart of your $-balance shows a pattern of the latest valleys generally occurring at higher $-values than previous ones...then, you are onto something...relax and enjoy the ride...
composure=not taking the equity drops ($-givebacks) personally, as they are the results simply of cards being drawn...have faith in your selection process (ie. that your chart will generate a pattern of higher and higher valleys)...and watch the $peaks form with great comebacks and the $valleys form with the epic chokes...
you can't "smooth out" the bumpy ride...all you can do is manage its direction...seems what u'r doing is solid that way...so just enjoy the rideLast edited by fitguy67; 05-07-15, 01:23 AM.Comment -
SS, hope you took more of that kyrgios lean...
that final TB was epic...ice-water composure in the 19 year oldLast edited by fitguy67; 05-06-15, 09:16 PM.Comment -
just taking a brief break again atm given my crappy history with discipline so dnt want to blow the rest of my profit
also regardless of variance, bad luck, or bad plays, a loss bet still = lose money. also would b delusional of me to think 20+ bets is variance as there were some pretty bad plays late on.
be back once the new round startsComment -
you're right, in the short term there are specific characteristics of each match you bet on using your protocol...and what happens as the match unfurls is experienced specifically and intensely, magnified in fact due to the $-implications you've put on things
but in the long run...the sequence of of W's and L's (that you DO suffer/celebrate thru specifically one match at a time)...behaves identically to the sequence of Black(W)/Red(L) balls being drawn at random from a drum...with all the "chokes/surprises/things going as expected etc" really emulating EXACTLY the waves of Red/Black balls that would come out of a drum
identifying with the success/failure of your method, and having that identification magnified by the money implications of the bet....makes betting on events SEEM more than complicated than just gambling as a simple random-sampling of draw-/spin-results...
the match taking hours and the "swings" in the way it looked like it would end up gives this illusion...but in effect, it's just a really just a long-duration draw/spin that involves a long set of sub-occurrences/good-and-bad executions of skill/good-and-bad official judgements/etc...but in the end, gambling is gambling: and as long as the payout more than compensates the unlikelihood that the ticket cashes it's a winning proposition long term (as all the specifics that led to the ultimate result...all the apparent "chokes, surprises, frustrations, exhilarations, etc" really do tend to balance out as the number of matches grow)
buying your ticket after the fave loses the first set has been money overall simply because the over-reactions by the public&book create overly-discounted bargain prices on the pre-match fave's in-play ML ticket...in the long run this is all that matters...that the in-play price-revisions create tickets with payouts that more than compensate for the reduced likelihood of the fave winning despite losing the first set...sometime the fukr u bet on will lose the match...and sometime he'll win...and due to the nature of tennis scoring there are always crucial-in-retrospect break/set/match points that would have reversed the result if they'd gone the other way...giving the illusion that a "choke" or a "come-back" was the key)...in the short term this stuff IS important...but long run it's analogous to wafts of air influencing a roulette ball on this spin that yields a Black...it actually is the reason for my win...but over the haul...the crucial points will go in ways beneficial to your bet sometime, against at others...independent of the players involved)...
it's all random-sampling...and it all cancels out over the haul...all except the value-edge inherent in your protocol...no mystery as to why: just expect the patches of "most of the fukrs losing the crucial turning points" to alternate with those where "most of the guyz you bet on came thru for you at these points"...same as Black-rich and Red-rich spins necessarily alternate
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i teach stats, explaining how this stuff is actually fascinating to me...how the principles of random sampling still apply fully despite the illusion that because we're dealing with people and their decisions/executions it's somehwo different..
but in the end we just get a longer more elaborate "event" than a physical of RNG "draw/spin" but the analytics (and the inescapability of "variance"...as much as it seems to come down to "execution" rather than "randomness"...the success/failure of the execution attempts of any one player will show the same sort of distributions as black and red balls being drawn at random from a drum of fixed relative-concentration.
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good method u have here...don't blame yourself for the rough patches...expect them...and please keep posting both the pre-game leans and the in-play tickets you buyLast edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15, 04:48 AM.Comment -
^ for sure but i increased the amount of loss balls so to speak by some wat chasing. 1st 10 or so picks yea bt last few there were definitely some bad picks. eg. ito despite being 10 times better than nielsen and smashing him the week before, i mentioned busan challenger is simply a tournament u dnt mess with, yet i did.
discipline has never been my strong suit thats for sure
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+$3169
Will kick things of tomorrow again most likely with some qualifiers possibly.Comment -
fair enough...no more "word blizzards" on this from me...interesting, tho...how events depending on human judgement/execution end up behaving exactly in end-result as if they were mere physical processes...
also interesting how "observing something closely seems to intimately change the thing we're observing" (known as Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle in the physics of the super-small)...amazing how this seems to apply also to betting situations (the old "tree falls in the forest"..."if i hadn't bet on jerzy, would he still have choked"
conundrum)
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carry on SS...great threadLast edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15, 05:06 AM.Comment -
i just got Pova at 2.37, down a set and serving at 2-2...
of course she gets broken during that very game...and now she's available for 3.20 down a set and a break...
Pova seems to win so many matches coming out of holes like this...hope i picked one of those times...a lot depends on Kuzzy's ability to hold here (which she did...damn)
interesting thing about the line...
down a set +on serve, *2-2 @2.37
down a set + just broken by opponent, 2-3* 3.20
down a set, broken, opponent consolidated the break by holding, *2-4, @4.50
i suspect this payout-escalation pattern can always be pretty-well counted on...so if your target player gets broken early in 2nd set, you can put on a half-play (in case they break back and the payout drops, you're not left out completely)...but you can add more at an even better payout in the quite-likely event the opponent consolidates...
then you pray for the fave to get that break back in the remaining games, to at least force a TB...
faak...kuzzy in straightsLast edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15, 05:47 AM.Comment -
i took Berdy @2.36, down a set and on serve: 3-6/1-1*
SEEMS it might have passed (as both Pova and Serena did several hours ago) the WWSSD ("what would sirty sree do?") test, lol
time for the black balls (aka the fave comebacks) to start coming up!Last edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15, 11:53 AM.Comment -
my last half day: missed with Sharapova...then again with Serena...then hit with Berdych
just bought Lama @2.2, down a set and on serve 3-6/*3-3
c'mon gambling gods...can I please get two whole fave-comebacks in a row after a painful stretch of unchashed tickets...time for that "overdue" wave of positive variance to kick in...
Lama holding to *6-5 after flirting with blowing it...so at least a TB's chance to keep the bet aliveLast edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15, 07:25 PM.Comment -
Second set Lama
Get it now 
Comment