SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

**SirtySree** · 04-18-15, 08:58 PM

Would have been up almost $1000 if I had the balls to take my leans above.

Will post up some more of my leans later on when odds for the main draws are out. The angle above usually works in the 1st round but as the opponents get tougher, the chances of winning decreases so the likes of Apostol winning again are slim.

**SirtySree** · 04-19-15, 02:04 AM

Here's what I like for later. The only one I would be taking myself is Copil 2-0 sets but I can't cause the book I use doesn't have it. If it's available live and I am on at the time, I will post if I take it.

Once qualifier finish, may have some more. I see a few interesting potential matchups after qualifiers and will be fading Gulbis in the 2nd round.

Copil @2.7 vs Youzhny
- Copil playing at home. He is always pumped up when playing at home and can play insane when he is properly motivated.
- Youzhny is a fade against any half decent opponent at the moment as most people know already. Forgot to put him on my list as I'm typing this.
- Only taking the 2-0 because if Copil is pumped up, he wins 2-0 or otherwise he loses 2-0. Alternatively, would just take him down a set if he is pumped but just unlucky to drop first set. We will see if I decide to play this live or pre-game but really depends on if my book offers the 2-0 sets.

Burgos @3.18 vs Thiem
- I am skipping this as too many ifs and buts. Only putting this here cause if someone wants to take the risk.
- Burgos retired last match so not too sure where he is at. Thiem was just as bad as Gulbis in his last match so could be worth a fade.

Baena @2.35 vs Struff
- Baena playing at home. Would only consider the ML or down a set but not the 2-0. Baena is a grinder and a fighter so often his matches go 3 sets.
- Struff is having a pretty bad year so far so looking to fade him.

Sonego @4 vs Marti
- Sonego is underrated by books and public consistently.
- Sonego at home, Marti playing badly at the moment. Marti is a good player when his form is on though so could be deadly.

Novak @2.1 vs Fischer
- Was hoping it would be much higher so no play here. Just posting it cause I've been mentioning about fading Fischer for a while but the right opportunity never really came for me.

If anyone wants my opinion on any matches, just let me know. Willing to share my opinion but don't go from player A to player B from just what I say cause everything I post is just my opinion, I don't have some magical insight.

**SirtySree** · 04-19-15, 06:48 AM

Novak won against Fischer from a set down @6 roughly. Dam shame I missed it. The kid is the king of winning finals and winning from a set down.

Locked these in. Never going to go more than a unit for pre-match bets.

Copil 2-0 @4.2 - $65
Copil ML @2.6 - $35
Baena 2-1 @4.95 - $50
Baena ML @2.4 - $50

**lucasdawg** · 04-20-15, 12:52 AM

tailing baena to start offf!

**lucasdawg** · 04-20-15, 12:55 AM

i also took over 2.5sets.

**SirtySree** · 04-20-15, 02:15 AM

shocked that baena is almost at $3 now. not sure wat others r seeing that i am nt. struff is 6/13 this yr and has been choking in quite a few matches and just all round playing bad. baena on the other hand is at home and got given a wildcard so would want to prove he deserved it and often wildcards do create an upset or two because of that. also the matchup is terrible for struff and im expecting baena to break him an insane amount of time bt hopefully baena can hold enough times himself.

also might place a bet on ymer to take down de bakker even tho he lot to him earlier this year

**SirtySree** · 04-20-15, 02:34 AM

Some leans for later or just interesting matches.

Sugita @4.33 vs Bellucci
- Bellucci has been bad this year and has been an error machine in all his matches that I have seen lately
- Sugita doesn't play on clay much but his results in qualifying was solid and he seems like he is in decent form although I havent watched him play lately
- 1st set or spread could be playable but I'm leaving it

Giacalone @3 vs Hamou
- Not much to say here as I'm not sure of Giacalone's game but just going off his wins here, could be soild as he fits the angle of ITF player playing at home in a Challenger event

Couple of fade players playing but odds arent that high sijling, cagnina, martin.

Also Ymer @3 but just waiting on odds to get a bit higher. Very likely I will be taking him.

**SirtySree** · 04-20-15, 06:03 AM

The tennis sharps always shows up late so hoping that's the case with Copil. Was also strange to see his odds going up before but now getting absolutely pounded down just before the match. $2.75 to $2.15 on 10bet in 3 hours.

Also Baena going into a 3rd set.

**lucasdawg** · 04-20-15, 06:48 AM

baena got it nice! im against ymer here although bakker went from 1.36 to 1.41

**SirtySree** · 04-20-15, 06:58 AM

Originally posted by lucasdawg

baena got it nice! im against ymer here although bakker went from 1.36 to 1.41

im leaving ymer. my opinion is probably too biased towards him so its hard to make a proper judgement on the match. i would say tho that de bakkers form has gone down a bit since their last meeting and its nt on fast clay anymore so should increase ymer chances compared to last time

**SirtySree** · 04-20-15, 07:03 AM

forgot to also mention this is his new home and training area as well so should b far better on this surface than the one they last played out

typing all this just makes me want to take ymer more and more bt i just hav a feeling it wont b a gud idea

**SirtySree** · 04-20-15, 07:30 AM

gerald melzer @5 down set 1-1

**SirtySree** · 04-20-15, 08:44 AM

zampieri @2.75

**larry040681** · 04-20-15, 11:17 AM

followed on copil.. I already had my money on struff before reading your write-up that buena has adv. (waste of money)

gl on ur other picks..

**SirtySree** · 04-21-15, 01:38 AM

+$3849.50

Had a long post lined up about Ymer and Copil but accidentally closed the wrong tab.

In short, Ymer could beat Kyrgios and I'll make a decision if I am taking it soon.

**SirtySree** · 04-21-15, 03:08 AM

Monticone @3.5

**SirtySree** · 04-21-15, 03:10 AM

Negreanu @3.5

**kenz** · 04-21-15, 04:16 PM

Kudla?

**SirtySree** · 04-21-15, 06:44 PM

^ Wasn't online for it but would've passed. I think I talked about Boutilier in an earlier post but can't quite remember. Very solid player for someone that plays ITF. Good serve, good forehand, and decent backhand. Only reason he is in ITF is that he can be a bit inconsistent but he's definitely better than a lot of Challenger level players. Wouldn't have thought he could beat Kudla but I also hate backing players going from ATP tournaments to Challenger events in a short time span as for some reason, they always under perform.

+$3649

**SirtySree** · 04-21-15, 09:00 PM

This website isn't loading very well right now.

Got Londero pre-match @4 against Harrison. Currently 2-0 Londero but Harrison taking an injury timeout so could end up being void. Harrison form going down after a few good tournaments and Londero won against Harrison last year.

**SirtySree** · 04-21-15, 09:32 PM

Londero with 6 set points before Harrison gets 1 break point and takes it. Had the same crap happen yesterday with Monticone.

**SirtySree** · 04-21-15, 11:50 PM

Sabrina Sharipova @2.6 down set, up 30-15 first game

**SirtySree** · 04-22-15, 12:27 AM

Updating the fade list before I forget. Martin finally won but it was against Delic who is in just as bad form. If Martin wins today, he will be off the list and a lot of the time, it just takes these players 1 very good win to find form again. Added Istomin who I mentioned to fade against Marcora but forgot to mention him again yesterday when he lost to Mektic who is worse than Marcora.

Fade List:
Cagnina
Andrej Martin
Gulbis
Jurgen Melzer
Kozlov
Matsui
Sijsling (1st round only)
Mate Delic
Istomin

**Jeff_Black** · 04-22-15, 12:40 AM

Was very tempted to take Nikola Metkic to beat Istomin last night but wasn't sold on his form even though Istomin has been crap. Do love the idea of Istomin as a fade player.

**SirtySree** · 04-22-15, 01:47 AM

^ seen metkic play a few times and he is very ordinary. doesnt hav any real strengths and isnt particularly a good returner either. bucharest is very slow tho so that wouldve helped stop istomins serve and in his current form he is full of UE errors.

===============================

+$3809 (not including Londero)

Decided not to bet on Ymer. Will just wait in-match if I decide to place a bet.

**SirtySree** · 04-22-15, 04:46 AM

Rosol @3.25

**SirtySree** · 04-22-15, 07:05 AM

Thought I posted Sillanpaa but must have not gone through or something. Had him @3 and he was down 6-4 5-3 and somehow wins next 10 games in a row. Very lucky win there although it was lopsided matchup prematch.

Ymer's 2nd serve getting destroyed again so leaving him down a set.

+$4034

**SirtySree** · 04-22-15, 08:48 AM

Ymer

**lucasdawg** · 04-22-15, 09:06 AM

haha i was on him at 1-1 set all.. he seemed out of it the 2nd set then i turned back he won the tie break !!

**SirtySree** · 04-23-15, 02:46 AM

Wished there was a stream for that match. Would've been insane. Will be looking for spots to fade Kyrgios on clay though. Had a post about it yesterday as mentioned above but accidentally closed the tab. Kyrgio's isn't great on clay and his record is inflated with the two titles on green US clay which plays more like the hard court at Acapulco than typical clay.

Don't have much time to day but Burgos @3 looks pretty decent.

**SirtySree** · 04-23-15, 04:13 AM

Govortsova @3

**SirtySree** · 04-23-15, 04:16 AM

Soylu @3.5 2x

**SirtySree** · 04-23-15, 06:17 AM

Rus @3

Also looks like theres finally coverage in Barcelona! Happens to be the Ymer vs Ferrer match as well. Happy days.

**SirtySree** · 04-23-15, 06:24 AM

Deviatiarov @2.75 down set and 3-3

**SirtySree** · 04-23-15, 07:19 AM

Ymer loses 1st set 6-3. So impressed by the development of his game. Gets better and better every time I watch him. Had a few crucial points go against him otherwise he is going toe to toe in rallies with Ferrer at the moment.