SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[SirtySree]

Will definitely continue to fade Gulbis if he is the favourite. As for Arnedo/Balleret, solid win but they got Dodig/Melo next which is an unlikely win as they made the finals here last year. Might play something small on it though pending options for it when the lines are out but not the ML most likely.

Plenty of upsets in the 1st round as expected with certain matchups. Not expecting many upsets from here on in though.

[SirtySree]

My picks for remaining games.

Tsonga
Novak
Mayer
Maurer
Berd
Kohl
Raonic
Ferrer

[lucasdawg]

Karatsev @2 vs Martin
- fading martin is a no brainer again. terrible form right nw
- said to fade against gaio who took him out in straight sets and karatsev is better than gaio
- 2-0 sets looks good too


Didn't end up fading Fischer like I said but he just lost to Vorster in straight sets @3 in the final.

on the Karatsev pick today!! les get irt

[SirtySree]

^ Good luck. Unfortunately not enough value there for me to make an actual play though. I think Karatsev should be priced at 1.5-1.6 so it's only a 50cent extra value which isn't my type of play.

Going to leave this here so I dont forget later on. Will be fading Lindell as some point in the ITF tournament he is in atm. Good player but in terrible form.

[Honeybadger44]

^ Good luck. Unfortunately not enough value there for me to make an actual play though. I think Karatsev should be priced at 1.5-1.6 so it's only a 50cent extra value which isn't my type of play.

Going to leave this here so I dont forget later on. Will be fading Lindell as some point in the ITF tournament he is in atm. Good player but in terrible form.

I have a lot of respect for you Sirty, so I hope you will not take this the wrong way. I think that you should look at the value in different way. I believe that looking at net number of cents, which are over your estimated odds is wrong. Looking at it percentage wise is better imho. So, if you think Karatsev should be 1.50 and you are getting him at evens, thats 100% more (to win), where you thought it should be. I'd say that's some great value.
Didn't want to sound like a smartass here, just offering you my view on these kind of situations. Cheers!

[SirtySree]

I have a lot of respect for you Sirty, so I hope you will not take this the wrong way. I think that you should look at the value in different way. I believe that looking at net number of cents, which are over your estimated odds is wrong. Looking at it percentage wise is better imho. So, if you think Karatsev should be 1.50 and you are getting him at evens, thats 100% more (to win), where you thought it should be. I'd say that's some great value.
Didn't want to sound like a smartass here, just offering you my view on these kind of situations. Cheers!

No worries, I respect your opinion as you always have very good writeups and know your stuff.

I understand where you are coming from but reason why I avoid such lines is cause I've always had discipline issues with betting. I think a lot of matches are like the one above where the actual odds are evens but I think it should be around $1.5. I would end up having a dozen plays a day which is recipe for disaster for me and just never worked for me so I've almost eliminated pre-match betting completely.

I actually had the same betting mentality and style as Matt despite the fact I always talk crap to him. Difference though is that I realised this a long time ago and stopped as I know I suck at it, whereas on the other hand Matt doesn't realise yet and continues to do what he does and what I did.

As for the way I bet now, primarily I am getting original favourites of under $1.5 for over $3. It means they have to comeback and win in straight sets but I feel like that's a much better bet than just going from $1.5 to $2 especially for me anyways.

[SirtySree]

I could've always did what I did with Maurer though and just went half unit on ML and half on 2-0 sets to up that value.

Didn't feel too comfortable doing that though and easy to only say it now cause Karatsev is dominating Martin.

[lucasdawg]

bam easy odds for me thanks for the play!


hows maurer v tomic? although odds suggest you wont be wagering on it?

[SirtySree]

bam easy odds for me thanks for the play!


hows maurer v tomic? although odds suggest you wont be wagering on it?

No worries. I picked Maurer above but going to reverse it and say Tomic. Won't be betting on it though.

Tomic historically not great on clay but this year he has been too solid to go against even if it is clay.

[SirtySree]

Not taking Thiem or Mannarino down a set. Thiem playing like Gulbis with bunch of unforced errors and Pouille not doing much better either. Mannarino surprisingly still struggling with clay despite his style of play looking like it should be good for clay.

EDIT: The upsets just keep on coming. Going to skip Monfils too. Odds are always so crap when the fav goes down a set at the ATP level.

[Jeff_Black]

I think Tomic has been good enough this year and improved steadily on clay to win some more matches against players he should beat. He's not 18 anymore so he has the power and body to handle the clay courts. Maybe not the game as much but as it's been pointed out Maurer had a ridiculously easy win against Gulbis who is 1-7 this year and had a high Ue count. He just doesn't give a crap right now...
Tomic has played a few high calibre players this year and knows where his level is at.

[SirtySree]

Erguden @3.4

[SirtySree]

Erguden @3.4

[SirtySree]

Domingues @3.3 down 5-1 15-40. Was waiting till end of set but taking it now before odds slip.

[lucasdawg]

yeah i would generally fade tomic, but he actually seems motivated this year, and has been pretty consistent. lets hope he keeps it that way,

also took verdasco and mayer to win 1set

[SirtySree]

Just some add on stuff from what I said earlier, plus I am going to add a fade list.

Miele @3.4 vs Lindell
- really close to making this bet but Miele himself isn't in the best of form
- going to skip it and if Lindell wins, look to possibly fade him later

arneodo/balleret @4.5
- going to skip this match altogether. reasonably weak doubles field but dodig/melo, fog/bolleli, and bryan brothers are the only 3 i wouldnt bet against as i feel arneodo/balleret r capable of beating anyone else

Fischer
- in another ITF tournament. will look to fade once versing a decent opponent

Fade List:
Cagnina
Andrej Martin
Gulbis
Jurgen Melzer
Kozlov
Lindell

I will try add to that list when names pop up and remove names if they get back into form. Also I will try post if any of the above have a match I feel they will lose.

[SirtySree]

Ugh went away for 45min and a bunch of nice comebacks occurred. Will be on for the next few hours as plenty of matches today so hopefully can pick out some winners.

[SirtySree]

dam arneodo and balleret dominating atm. could end up being legit title contenders of a masters event for two itf players lmao

edit broken just as posted zz

[SirtySree]

napolitano @3.5 down 4-2 15-30 in 3rd set

[SirtySree]

Got a bit fortunate with the above.

Lindell won easy but will definitely look to fade him against Kicker but just waiting to see the odds before I decide.
Fischer has another easy match so no fade yet.

+$3057 *(two actual pre-game bets included)

[SirtySree]

Wow, Lindell is @3. Didn't expect that so obviously I can't fade him. Almost tempted to take him instead.

Also all the favourites going down a set are only @evens lately for some bizarre reason. Hate taking them at such a low price.

Salisbury @3.25 down set and 2-1

[SirtySree]

Sugnaux @3.5 down set and 1-0 break

[SirtySree]

Gaio @5 down set and 3-2 break

[SirtySree]

Gorgorde @4 down set but up 2-0 2nd set. Really confused by this. Was 1.06 opening line and looks like a lopsided matchup pre-game.

[SirtySree]

^ Probably should have left that. Odds pulled from 10bet and keeps going away on bet365. Could be a fix given the strange odds.

+$3607

EDIT: ugh knew the odds above were too good to be true. gorgorde now losing 3-2.

[SirtySree]

Niedmers @2.85 down set

[SirtySree]

btw lindell down to $2. that opening odds were way off as mentioned earlier. wont b betting the match either way tho

edit. also add matsui to the fade list. forgot bout him bt tday he lost again as decent fav

[SirtySree]

corning/uzcategui @5 prematch bet. on fone and match starting so wont go in detail. coinflip

[SirtySree]

hedged a bit @2.25 with 1 unit

[SirtySree]

realised i only had it @4.5 cause one point was played as i placed the bet so counting it as 4.5

+$3657

[SirtySree]

Napolitano @3.25

[SirtySree]

+$3882

Many interesting things to talk about.

Firstly, updating the fade list. Lindell is definitely off the fade list and is worth backing now that he is back in form and books may still assume he isn't. Won @3 roughly against both Kicker and then Jarry. Adding Sijsling to the fade list but just for 1st round matches

Fade List:
Cagnina
Andrej Martin
Gulbis
Jurgen Melzer
Kozlov
Matsui
Sijsling (1st round only)

As for Corning/Uzcategui, it was a shame I couldn't bet on them again. Very underrated pair on ITF womens tour. Came from a set down to win again and would've been big odds.

For Monte Carlo, in the doubles all 3 of the teams I said are the best are through to the semi-finals. Would have to say Fog/Bolleli and Bryan brothers go through to the finals but both matches should be very close and not worth betting. In the singles, to get Nadal @3 almost against anyone on clay regardless of his current form is a pretty dam good price. Laying off for now but may make a play before the match.

Lastly, Barcelona and Bucharest qualifiers will be starting. Bucharest is slow clay while Barcelona is a bit faster but still pretty slow. It is so sad that they are making Ungur play in the qualifiers when he is their Davis Cup player, such disrespect not giving him a wildcard. I will make a post once odds are up. Quite an interesting draw with a few fade players in them.

EDIT: Also Ymer will be in the main draw of Barcelona. He is now based and training there so will be interesting to see how he goes as he hasn't been great on clay so far this year.

[SirtySree]

Just a few from the early lines but will have more later on. None of them are plays at the moment. Just my usual leans or matches I find interesting. If I do play anything, I will make it clear.

Maamoun @4 vs Fischer - very tempted to take this but will wait closer to the match before I make a decision


Apostol @4.33 vs Setkic
- Setkic a little bit out of form to start the year
- Apostol playing at home and in decent form
- Probably not good enough to take the match but he should keep it close so spread could be decent if anyone wanted to play this

Giustino @3 vs Kamke
- Kamke also out of form and on a losing streak at the moment
- Giustino can be a tricky player but is very inconsistent
- Could be worth the gamble with the way Kamke is going at the moment

Hobgarski @6.5 vs Mayr-Achleitner
- Hobgarski is one of the players I had in my rookie watch
- Achleitner is 2-10 this year with injury problems
- Hobgarski playing at home and if you decide to take it, take at a none void book as Achleitner may retire if down

Lottner @3.4 vs Linette
- Another one of those ITF level players playing at home in a WTA event. Love that angle.
- Linette ain't the best on clay but she is in good form though
- 1st set looks good and I might be tempted to take it

[SirtySree]

A couple more. Don't have time for writeups but here are a few I think can cause an upset.

Rublev @2.1, Lizariturry @2.62, Becker @3, Sonego @3

[SirtySree]

Dam, all the Romanians are dominating at home. Apostol won in straight sets @5.5, Cornea on the verge of winning, Dima up early. Maybe Luncanu will be a good pick in an hour or so too.

One of my fav angles is ITF players playing in ATP/WTA events at home as mentioned last week.