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Will Verdasco roll over Tsonga?
Or outlast him?
Tsonga is a big ole boy, out there in 125 degree heat, against someone as fit and in shape as Verdsaco?
Verdasco, having just upset Andy Murray who many had at as winning this thing, obviously has the endurance factor on his side. However, Tsonga has the power to negate much of Verdsaco's athleticism by making for shorter rallies with his booming groundstrokes.
Verdsaco is a hell of a returner though. Thoughts?
Verdasco's serve will be the key to the match IMO. That's the primary thing that has undone him in the past. If he serves like he did against Murray and they play in the heat - Verdasco is the pick for me. Still looking hard at this one.
Verdsaco is always a good bet at better than even money. He's also fairly safe as huge chalk, he struggles when slightly to medium favored, like an NBA favor struggling with a wide open mid-range jumpshot.Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
The other factor that makes him the likely pick for me today is that the Australian Open men's side has usually featured one surprise semi-finalist for about the last decade. Federer obviously is no shock. For me, Djokovic not making it was not a shock as I expected someone to step up and beat him, although I mistakenly had Baghdatis. So Roddick is a very mild suprise at best. Simon may test Nadal, but Nadal can smell that hardcourt Grand Slam final that's been out of his reach. This is his best shot to get there, so Simon won't be the suprise as I think Nadal is just playing that well right now. That leaves 'Nando. #14 seed in the bracket where 95% or more probably had Murray (me too). Just some stuff to think about. I definitely think as HeeHaw pointed out - before you make your bet, watch to see the roof situation. If the roof is closed, Tsonga is probably the better play.
So many unknowns here:
1) Verdasco serving at 74% against Murray (and 94% in the last two sets!). That's beyond insane, and I can't see it being repeated. He wasn't rolling them in either, these were 130mph+ blasts.
2) The heat! If the roof is open, this will inevitably affect Tsonga more than Verdasco. The question is how much? He's a little prone to lapses of concentration at the best of times (eg he was easily beating Sela, then suddenly gives up a 1-6 set).
3) The new Verdasco? He's always been great at beating lesser players, only to choke against the best. After Murray raised his game in the 3rd set to take it 6-1, the expectation was he'd totally crumble. Instead, Mr 94% comes out to play. Is it a one off?
4) The style matchup, since Tsonga and Verdasco have never played. Some simlarities between them, but looking at their past games we have very little comparable opponents to judge by - the only other guys with faintly similar games aren't in the top 20.
I've no idea, and will skip it.
However, two strong serves, two average returners, lots of heat. The over is where my money will go, particularly as Tsonga plays has so many tiebreak and 6-4 sets. I'm looking at the Ljubicic-Tsonga match as a vague guideline here, as that had three tiebreaks, before Tsonga rolled away and won the final set 6-2.
HeeeHAWWWW, fair points but I disagree with the contention that Verdsasco is an "average" returner. The speed and ability to cover the court alone, combined with his form when he's on, and I think he can be quite dangerous on the return and generally one of the most undervalued players in the world.
OK, to qualify it a bit: average by the standards of the top 10 :-) In other words they're excellent, cos you don't get anywhere in modern tennis without a strong return, but not as good as Nadal, Djoko, Fed, Murray, Davydenko, Fat Dave etc.
I would take Tsonga ... so you know what to do ... fade me.
i would put some money on Verdasco if the roof is open, but from the pure tennis lover prespective Tsonga would be a better fit for the semis against Nadal. If Fernando wins that would mean easy road for Nadal to the Final.
I'm surprised so many of you believe Verdasco is such a doormat. Am I alone in thinking he's one of the best players to never win a slam?
At this year AO is the first time i see him having an OK backhand, Verdasco is just this year wonder that we always see at AO, list is long of average players making deep runs at AO, Baghs, Clement, Gonzo, etc.
Calling him one of the best to never win a slam is just absurd.
I'm not making the statement based on his run in this tournament. I've generally just always regarded him as an elite-capable player that's never really made the statement his talent indicates he should at the Grand Slam level. The guy is clearly an amazing and gifted athlete, and I think he's genuinely underrated.
he should spend more time with Gil, you can see improvements in just 2 months, amazing. Maybe Agassi will stop by and show him how to hit a backhand, if he improves his backhand he can do some damage.
I agree Verdasco has the game to play at the top level, but it's always been the mental question. However the only evidence we have is one match, against a physically not 100% Murray, and serving at a level that is clearly a one-off freak.
If Verdasco is going to do this consistently, we need a 2nd match as evidence. Unfortunately, that 2nd match is tonight :-)
Let's not forget he nearly cracked the top 10 this summer, being rated 11th in the world in July of 08.
I got Verdasco to pull off the upset.
idiot lost it
stupid tsonga!
if you would look closely at the statistics of the first 4 rounds, verdasco dominated in every category, except the second serve %. and at +160 was a real value bet.
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