Looking at their most recent match, this seems like a blatant pick. However, LlOdra just won his last tourney so I get the tired factor, but you can't deny the score from their last meeting which took place a mere 8 weeks ago. Not going nuts on this one just one unit.
Keep in mind that Llodra is playing doubles with Zimonjic on very competitive level and it might be his primary focus. It is open match but I like Lopez at+230 more.
No question the value is with Lopez as a dog. However, I bet tennis on feel not value, and I just think that confidence you get from pounding someone 1, 0, and 2, is my reasoning for making this bet.