[JNic]

I'm excited for this tournament. I have 2 plays for tomorrow

Cipolla +365 over Nishikori - Look into Cipolla, he is a short Italian, sort of a veteran but is having one of the best yrs of his career. He is an all court player and most of his best results have come on the hardcourts. He is very crafty, very quick and will stay strong in the rallies. Nishikori is coming off injury and had horrible defeats to Nalbandian and Monaco. He is just overrated right now and I really haven't been impressed with him, all of his qualifying wins, and his wins vs Muller and Andujar are not the most impressive. Muller served for the match and had 30-0 and basically blew that 3rd set tiebreak. Obviously if Nishikori is playing at his best he will blow by Cipolla, he will have his shots on the Italian's serve but can also implode. The odds on him are ridiculous... Both players have a ton of heart and I think Cipolla stands a chance

Harrison +225 over Cilic - These odds have dropped considerably and for good reason. Harrison was sick last week and that explains his bad results in Winston-Salem. The 18 yr old is a massive fighter and his GrandSlam resume is nothing short of spectacular compared to the rest of his results. Last year he took out Ljubicic and lost to Stakhovsky in 5 sets blowing 3 match points. Cilic can be on any match though but can also make a ton of confusing unforced errors. The odds are just bad imo

post your picks, feel free to critique me.
I am thinking of playing Jack Sock tomorrow +240 vs 34 yr old Gicquel and also Matosevic +135 vs Chela

[JNic]

hm thanks for posting your picks lol.

FLAVIO CIPOLLA GSM +365 6-4 6-2 ret.
**** yes im happy

[JNic]

1-1 +2.65

Matosevic +140 - I'm well aware of his horrible loss to Chela at Wimbledon where he hit a billion UEs (80+). I'm not sold on Chela at all right now, he looked like shit in Montreal and then I watched his match in Cinci and he was having medical timeouts for his shoulder, and his already weak serve was even shittier. In wimby he had the gameplan to come to the net, and when he came to the net it was just at horrible moments from what I remember. Marinko can hit a big first serve, and both of these guys can go all day. I like Marinko's game a lot more on hard courts than grass and I think he will know how to attack Chela better. This is going to be ugly to watch, and Marinko isn't doing aussies well taking Hewitt's spot. But trust me, he will have tons of chances on Chela's serve and he matches up really well with Chela's attacking game, he will just be a target at net.

[JNic]

Tell me what you guys think of Andreev +478 and Starace +130. Andreev and Ferrer are best friends from what I hear, and Andreev showed some great form in Winston-Salem while Ferrer hit a ton of unforced errors in his last match against Simon.
Starace came back form injury winning a clay court challenger easily, and I think he is capable on hard courts, does anyone know what the injury was? I've paid close attention to Berrer this summer and he is shit right now, plain and simple. I watched his match vs Donald Young and his whole game is in trouble

[dlweaver]

Would jump on Starace..... Andreev i think has little chance. He was "ok" in Winston Salem, but this is the US Open and Ferrer knows him very well.

[gregm]

I cant think of any time this year when Andreev has been successful wager for me, he has had a dismal year. Ferrer has actually looked pretty sharp this year but he just loses to the top guys usually.On hard court , he beat fish in a davis match in the US just recently, and usually makes it to the round of 16 or at least 32 here at the US open, he made it to the semis in 2007.

7.5 games isn't that much in a match going three sets or more, I won't touch Andreev this year.

I just noticed you mentioned Starace too, tough one to call. Both have atrocious stats on hard courts, I do like starace alot more than andreev on the moneyline or andreev even with the handicap.

[JNic]

Yea Ferrer was coming off of some injury to his left wrist which affected his backhand a little bit. I think he was just rusty in Cincinnati and should most likely find his way through Andreev.

Starace has a pretty good game on the HC from what I remember, but the odds are just weak and I think Berrer might just have way too much practice on these hardcourts. His serve is still very effective and it might get him through. Way too hard to come up with a play on that one.

Does anybody think this guy Bobby Reynolds can trouble Nalby? I was looking forward to fading Nalbandian early, but I really haven't seen decent results from Reynolds for like 3 yrs. Any trust in him?

[Demonata]

Bobby Reynolds is an american so maybe he can out due nalby since it's the U.S. open it seems like americans are playing harder than usual especially with that 16 year old american girl winning.

[JNic]

1-1 +2.65 - Matosevic void cause didn't complete a set

Sock +240 against Gicquel - Sock hasn't really proven anything yet but Gicquel is 34 and he has to be wearing down. Not to mention he is really playing mostly on clay now, he still is effective on these courts with his serve but Sock knows what he has to do. Sock is really solid off of both wings, and I expect him to really extend the points and grind Gicquel down in front of a rowdy crowd hopefully.

[JNic]

Thoughts on Sweeting +135, Istomin is getting a lot of love because of him winning 2 challengers in his own country and then he took out Bachinger and fell to Nieminen up a set. I don't think he can possibly be consistent enough to win this in 3, and Sweeting will be able to give him a ton of problems in the long rallies. Istomin's serve seems to be back though and Sweeting has been having problems?

[JNic]

Ito +700 vs Lopez - I've seen this Japanese guy play a little bit and he has very nice compact strokes. I've been waiting for a while for him to make a breakthrough and I think he matches up with Lopez pretty well. Ito took out another big server in Berrer in Atlanta, this doesn't mean much but I was also looking to fade Lopez before the tournament started and Ito was very acceptable to me. He picked up a lucky win after a rain delay against Stepanek, I saw his match vs Ferrero and he wasn't at his best. I think his success at Wimbledon is badly jacking up his prices and I don't think he deserves these odds. As I said before, Ito has compact strokes and he should be good under the pressure when Lopez is approaching the net constantly.Obviously if Lopez gets hot at the service line, then nobody can break him. But in the rallies, and just the majority of points Ito is very capable imo.

[EaglesPhan36]

That Istomin-Sweeting match is made for Maalox. Don't see an advantage to backing either. Hate Istomin and never touch the guy, but I don't think Sweeting's game is much to write home about. He doesn't have a great arsenal for a guy with his size [6'5"] and his Slam record if bad. I really hate everything about this match.

[JNic]

Yea, definitely a no play. Sweeting seems to be seriously slumping and it is almost impossible to get a read on Istomin's form. He is just another on the long list of Eastern Europeans/Russians to have fallen off this year after looking to get to the next level. Golubev, Stakhovsky, Gabashvili, Istomin, Kukushkin... At least Dolgopolov seems to be holding on

[gregm]

Good call on Starace and that Sweeting pick may be worth looking into. I have actually seen a few people on Sock and this baffles me. I have been looking into this pick for 2 days and called my friend who coaches and organizes alot of challenger events in the US, he says Sock is primarily in here because of a juniors victory that gives an automatic berth into the US Open

He did say Sock is one of the top juniors but going from playing high school guys and even top juniors and then playing a pretty good ATP guy, albeit a 34 year old one who is not impressive on hard, is a whole different ballgame.

This would be a great start to Socks career, but is Gicquel really that bad right now to lose to a junior ranked 555th in the world? This would be worse than that shot he took to the balls during the Becker match.

I love this quote after the ball incident between Becker and Gicquel

"With the speed-gun showing the serve was 208 km/h, the game was stopped for ten minutes while the Frenchman had ice applied discreetly, well, as discreetly as possible, in front of 8,000 people.In a show of support, Becker went over to his fallen opponent to pass on his deepest sympathy."

New balls please! Applying the ice.



I love this interview where he discussed the incident in the sensitive area with some fashionable french lady , this interview seems very close to ending up a porn scene. I love her facial expression when he mentions the sensitive area

[JNic]

LOL i never knew that story. Yea I can understand confusion with Sock, but I just think the match is way too set up for like a match pretty late into the night in like the 4th set and the crowd going crazy for Sock the whole time. I saw his match with Chiudinelli last year and I think the problem was he really didn't dictate enough with his forehand, both of these guys have simple compact backhands and Sock a really heavy westernized topspin fh, I think we are going to see a lot of him going inside out to Gicquel's backhand and forcing him to try and go down the line and Gicquel won't have the answer. Gicquel does have a very respectable serve though but his play on the hardcourts now is just a question mark. I think this might be more of a long shot but a worthy bet I hope..

[JNic]

Sock wins and Ito loses
2-2 +4.05

Ivo Karlovic +320 - Ivo's serve has been on all summer, and he took out Gonzo easily. It's gonna be tough for Gasquet in the tight moments, and this price is huge so I'm making a play. Gasquet's return is gonna be key, and I think Ivo will get a lot of easy putaways. It's gonna be decided by a few points if Ivo is on fire and he has to be high in confidence right now while Gasquet has tons of pressure.

[gregm]

Excellent call on Sock JNic. I was very impressed with the way Sock played,he looks barely out of high school but was still able to close the match out in the 4th.

Gicquel should just retire or just get back to the challenger circuit and stay there, this was humiliating to lose to a junior champ almost half his age who was screaming his dominance after every advantage . I was watching the french version of the stream, they were incredulous with Gicquels performance. This was as bad as the ball incident.



The French have not done well in awhile in tennis, maybe tomorrow you may be on to something. I have been losing my shirt on favorites so I am going to be looking at some live dogs tomorrow.

[face]

what do you guys think about donald young? i think stanislas wawbrinka is kind of a fukkup.

[JNic]

Lol yea Gregm, Sock was solid on his service games. Hit some big serves, some solid forehands, looked good at net... But Gicquel was just really bad at times and gifted Sock the big points.

Face, I really like Donald in that one but I'm just scared to take him. He's really playing good at the moment imo, he showed more of his good form against Lacko. Wawrinka is going to be doing his usual defense and I just doubt Young can handle the moment, you know? I feel like if I made a play on Young then he would lose from a winning position, Wawrinka is really a bum right now. He broke Golubev's losing streak, double faulted on set point and fell apart. Then he loses a set to Maximo Gonzalez who is also on some crazy losing streak 15 or something

[JNic]

Karlovic comes up huge
3-2 +7.25u

Istomin +280 - The line is going up and up and up, how many times has Benneteau ****** the public... Should be another pressure situation, both guys are serving great. I'll take the huge odds

[JNic]

3-3 +6.25u - Istomin really pisses me off b/c his random unforced errors, props to him though he's like 200 lbs and he runs down every single ball, although he barely gets to any of them

JCF +100
Anderson +348

[JNic]

3-3 +6.25u - Istomin really pisses me off b/c his random unforced errors, props to him though he's like 200 lbs and he runs down every single ball, although he barely gets to any of them

JCF +100
Anderson +348

Yea I changed my mind. This bet isn't smart at all, Granollers +110 to hedge out

[Demonata]

What bookie you use?

[JNic]

5dimes, you? Pinnacle lines make me so mad lol, it's by far the best but im in america so its not an option

[Demonata]

5dimes, you? Pinnacle lines make me so mad lol, it's by far the best but im in america so its not an option

Cool I use 5dimes too. Was thinking about trying betonline too though.