I noticed Nadal at about +450 to win the US this year.
It seems to me that his chances of winning have to be greater than 20%, despite the fact that Djokovic is crushing everything this year. I would absolutely take Djokovic, Fed and Nadal against the field, and I'm not sure that there's anyone else who will be in contention.
Anyway, if anyone wants I'll put my 100 points up against their 450 for Nadal.