Breakdown: It was inevitable. Since the beginning of the year, Novak Djokovic has been physically pummeling and abusing the competition with a shotmaking exhibition never before seen in the sport. Now, with no answer to his riddle, no chink in his armor exposed, he has finally robbed his main competitors of their mental fortitude as well. How often does Rafael Nadal fall in his opening match of a tournament? For that matter, how often does he let his foot off the gas and play down to his opponents? Ivan Dodig is not exactly giant slayer material, yet that’s the role he played last week in Montreal. Fernando Verdasco nearly did the same against Nadal in the third round this week, bringing Rafa down to his erratic, unforced error-laden level of play.
There’s no doubt Djokovic is in his head, and when you’re the top player in the world and you suddenly lose to the same guy five times in a row, it’s bound to mess with your head. And that’s what is so remarkable. Nothing EVER rattles Rafa. Now, it seems Nole is impacting his performance in the early rounds of tournaments. Heck, even Roger seems rattled and he’s the only guy to have toppled the Serb. Chip away at the psychological foundation a top player has developed and suddenly the immortal become rather vulnerable.
After suffering a 6-3 6-1 second round humiliation at the hands of Kevin Anderson at last week’s Rogers Cup, 2008 Cincinnati champ Andy Murray has seemingly shaken off the post-Wimbledon rust and has not dropped a set all week. Without much trouble he has brushed aside the likes of David Nalbandian, Gilles Simon and Mardy Fish. After giving Djokovic one of the biggest scares of the year, in the Rome semifinals, could an upset be in store Sunday when the two tennis titans meet in the final of the Western & Southern Open? With his big match struggles well documented, Murray would like you to believe so. Against Fish, his excellent return skills were on display in winning almost half of the American’s service points. He was also very patient from behind the baseline, waiting for Fish to donate unforced error after unforced error, and he kindly obliged. The Scot would go on to prevail 6-3 7-6.
After winning the Montreal title last week, Djokovic has continued to keep his game on cruise control. That is, despite a peculiar first set hiccup against Gael Monfils in the quarters. In Saturday’s semifinals the Serb benefitted from a Tomas Berdych retirement, after snatching the opening set from the Czech on a late break, 7-5. Serving to force a tiebreak, Berdych sprayed four consecutive unforced errors to drop the game, and the set, at love. He then called it quits after suffering a right shoulder injury. After efficiently dismissing Federer in the previous round, it was a disappointing result for the number nine player in the world.
Murray’s best result in Cincinnati was a title in 2008. Djokovic reached the final twice, in ‘08 and ‘09. Head-to-Head: Djokovic leads 6-3. Murray’s three wins were all on hard courts, including for the 2008 Cincy championship. Djokovic defeated the Scot for the Australian Open title earlier this year. The best match of 2011, to date, was their semifinal encounter in Rome which the Serb roared from behind to take 6-1, 3-6, 7-6.
MATCH POINT: I picked Djokovic to beat Murray in the final in my tournament preview. While it would be foolish to hastily count out Andy here, as he’s played fantastic this week and has enjoyed great success in Cincinnati over the years, three aspects of his semifinal against Fish will not fly against the Incredible Nole. First, the break point opportunities. Four converted out of 15? Not gonna cut it. Second, the first serve percentage. A mediocre, at best, 51%? That many second serves will be obliterated. Finally, how can you be gifted 23 unforced errors from the American, in the second set alone, and need a tiebreak to win it? The match may go three, but Djokovic will win his seventh (that’s right, seventh!!!) Masters 1000 title of the year.
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Preview: Djokovic vs Murray
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