Australian Open 2009 thread

**Stacocakes** · 01-19-09, 01:37 AM

Good day so far on the opening day.

Won the Berdych match easy but lost the benneteau/baghdatis match.Good thing I stated that the benneteau bet was a small play

Still to come JCF beating Santoro. LIke that play alot

Will be back tomorrow with some more plays for day 2

**Stacocakes** · 01-19-09, 01:32 PM

Well a decent start to the open was ruined by Fabrice Santoro.Unbelievable.No idea how the **** he beats JCF. I didn't look at the match stats but a poster in another forum said santoro was 8/8 with break points. How the **** does JCF have 8 break points on his serve and he can't save one of them?**** him

Onto day 2.Lets get it all back:

Its unbelievable how the odds for Tommy Haas have been absolutely pounded.I believe he opened around -130 or so and his current odds on pinnacle are now -217.That is absolutely insane. I don't usually do this but i'm going to follow the movement on this match since it is huge. Will make a play on Haas -217 to win. Wish I had grabbed it earlier ****.

Tursunov -372 over Cipolla. Should be a fairly routine match for Tursunov. I don't recommend that many people follow this play though because the price isn't the greatest on it.

Almagro -300 over Massu - I got this line a couple of days ago and Almagro was in the 200's. I think he was like -270 or something. Seems to be some action coming in on him.I like him in this match alot.Has a great serve which will be perfect for this surface. Head to head record is 3-1 Almagro with Almagro winning the last 3.Book it

Blake -450 over Dancevic - Like this play alot.I think Blake can do some damage at this tournament this year. He will not win or anything but if he can just keep his head in it he has a pretty decent game. Dancevic is Canadian and I should be supporting him but in a best of five match i'll take the experience with Blake. Dancevic has had some moments though last year where he showed that he is capable of playing some good tennis. Blake has never lost in the first round of the Australian open in his career. The last couple years though he has also advanced fairly deep into the tourney. I've been burnt with Blake many times in the past but I am getting back up on the train for this one.Choo choo

I want to bet Tsonga so bad and think he will win fairly easily but the injury concerns have steared me clear of the match.

I've heard about some injury concerns for Kuznetsova coming into this match. There was even some saying that there was a possibility that she was going to withdraw from this tournament. With that in mind, seeing her as a -1000 favorite in the first round might be worth a small play on the dog at +800. I am still debating whether or not I will make this play.

Viadasova -163 over Bremond. Love this play. Nicole has shown in the past that she is capable of being a top 10 players.Injuries have got in the way with that and basically what you now get is a girl that is very unperdictable. One match she will look like a world killer and the next she will look like she just came off the street.Since the odds are small on this match, i'm going to make a play on it.Seems to be some good value.

Best of luck to all for the second day of the Australian Open

**Stacocakes** · 01-19-09, 01:38 PM

I'm increasing my play on Tommy Haas.He has gone pretty deep in the Aussie open the last couple of years. Schwank is playing in his first Aussie Open and has a game more tailored to play on clay. Think Haas wins this one easily. Book it

**wannabet** · 01-19-09, 02:39 PM

The squares are on Murray/Federer from the beginning. This will be fun to see how it plays out. This is not just a tennis pro knows all thing. you people are going to be surprised this time around. Good luck, but most of you are just betting favorites all the way. not looking very good today or for the next couple weeks.

**Stacocakes** · 01-19-09, 10:44 PM

Well Almagro blew a 2 sets to 0 lead but luckily won it in the fifth. Good start to the day

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 03:07 AM

Vaidasova shit the bed hard. Need Tommy, Blake and Tursunov to win and I can overlook this vaidasova destruction

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 04:55 AM

Big play on Tommy Haas was an easy win today.Glad I went heavy on this because as of right now Tursunov is losing as a -372 favorite and is going to take a big bite out of the Haas profit's.If Blake can win his match I should be able to end the day in the green. Here's hoping.

**Shark79** · 01-20-09, 11:52 AM

Tursonov choked heavily yesterday ... very unbalanced playing from him.

Glad that Blake play get you back on track man!!

Lets hit them hard today !!

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 01:38 PM

Well at least Blake won to cap off the day.If it wasn't for the big Haas win I would have been in the hole.Intead I made a very small profit.Hardly worth the stress
Gonna get back on the horse tonight.Need some smarter players.Tursunov ruined what could have been a really really good day

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 07:55 PM

Don't see much on the board that I like for tonight. Will probably just make a decent sized play on Roddick -615 over Mallisse. Lots of chalk but Roddick is 7-0 vs mallisse in his career

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 08:36 PM

Added play : Safin -280

**Ryangene** · 01-20-09, 09:40 PM

You like Baghdatis ? i think good value in his odds, but not sure if i should go with my gut on this one.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-20-09, 09:42 PM

Could be about to get very interesting in the Chardy-Djoko match here. Chardy is serving very nicely, and hitting cleanly off both wings. If he holds his nerve tiebreak wins are there for the taking.

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 10:02 PM

Not going in on the Baghdatis match.Don't have a feel for it. Baghdatis is so inconsistant I don't like betting him.

Djokovic always has his mental lapses during matches.He will probably beat Chardy in the end here but he never likes to make things easy. Definately don't think DJO wins this tourney

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 10:04 PM

Did you expect the roddick line to be over -1000 Heehaw? It seems kinda low at -615. Hes 7-0 in his career vs mallisse to, though those matches were well in the past

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-20-09, 10:22 PM

I kinda expected Roddick to be -800 best price tbh. He's been playing pretty well recently: a good win against an inform Monfils in Doha, and he beat Gilles Simon in Paris. Malisse hasn't done much in a while, and if you can't beat Ancic in Sydney, it'll be something majorly odd if he beats Roddick here. He's 195 in the world for a reason :-)

ps Chardy choked bigtime, he was marginally the better till 5-5 then blew it. Djokovic was being much too defensive.

psps Cilic beats Tipsy in 4. Solid win, but he's still too raw and a little clumsy - in particular chokes on overheads and volleys too much, and if his feet aren't set properly his backhands can go anywhere. He's nowhere near as dependable as Del Potro at present.

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 10:23 PM

Safin -280 cashes easily.Good start to the day

Lets hope Roddick rolls so the nights a sweep

**Stacocakes** · 01-20-09, 10:27 PM

Cilic will be good at some point ya.Still don't have enough faith in him to put alot of money on the line.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-20-09, 10:34 PM

Quick check shows Malisse's last wins against top50 players:

Nalbandian, Miami Mar08 (bit meaningless, Fat Dave was losing to everyone around that time)
Nieminen, Auckland Jan08
Nadal, Chennai Jan07 (good win, but Nadal did also lose at the same tournament in 08 to Youzhny 6-1 6-0)

His last win against a top 10 player at a hard court masters/slam was Hewitt in Cincinatti 2003. He played Roddick three times in the North American hard court season that year, losing all three, winning only one set total.

**meganie** · 01-21-09, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

I kinda expected Roddick to be -800 best price tbh. He's been playing pretty well recently: a good win against an inform Monfils in Doha, and he beat Gilles Simon in Paris. Malisse hasn't done much in a while, and if you can't beat Ancic in Sydney, it'll be something majorly odd if he beats Roddick here. He's 195 in the world for a reason :-)

Yeah, was surprised by the odds too. Guess it's because he beat Llodra that clearly.

In addition to the stats of Malisse, you could look it that way:
When was the last time Roddick lost to someone outside of the top 100?
When was the last time he lost against someone outside of the top 100 in best of 5?
When was the last time he lost against someone outside of the top 100 in a grand slam?
How many times did Malisse win against Roddick?

Expecting a clear Roddick-like three-set win.

**BelieveTheHype** · 01-21-09, 12:29 AM

Safin sounded real confident, lol.

**Stacocakes** · 01-21-09, 06:48 AM

Well guys, its almost five am here and Roddick finally finishes off Malisse in 4 sets.What a horrible match. Roddick's play was horrendous. Without his serve he is a player in the 40-50 range.His groundstrokes were horrible this whole match.Basically was just pushing the ball back to Malisse and hoping for an error.If malisse hit the ball to the corners, it was almost like roddick was wearing cement shoes.
The Roddick win caps off a good 2-0 day (with the safin win above).

Don't take Roddick next match he has.Not worth it trust me

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-21-09, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

Well guys, its almost five am here and Roddick finally finishes off Malisse in 4 sets.What a horrible match. Roddick's play was horrendous. Without his serve he is a player in the 40-50 range.

Yes, he sucks without serve. Shows how bad Malisse is nowadays that he won anyway.

Just checked: in the first match Roddick only had 54% first serve in, which clearly indicates misfiring. Today it was more normal for him: 71%, 19 aces, but his second serve win % was only 55%. Did it drop off in one set badly? Those stats aren't too bad (although if the second serve disappeared completely in patches causing breaks, the average doesn't matter too much).

**Stacocakes** · 01-21-09, 02:29 PM

It seemed in the match that any time Roddick's serve was returned and there was a rally, Roddick was probably losing 60% of the rallies.The aces that Andy had were his only highlights with his service game.Its frustrating watch Roddick because Malisse injured his groin at the end of the first set and was getting treatment from a trainer in the second set.While this was happening, Roddick was just pushing the ball back in the rallies and not forcing Malisse to run with his injured groin.Any top level player would have been drilling the ball all over the court and mixing it up with some drop shots as well to get malisse moving and aggrevate his injury.All Roddick does is push the ball back and when he tries to put more on his shots its weird because the ball doesn't really travel anywhere.I would really like to see how many winner Roddick really had with his groundstrokes.I am guessing not that many.All of his points were aces or malisse shots out of bounds or into the net.I'm not betting Roddick the rest of the tourney.Will be to much chalk to lay for what you get out of it. Stay away from Roddick everyone

**Stacocakes** · 01-21-09, 05:52 PM

Just some random thoughts about todays play:

Tsonga -525 over Ljubicic. I am not taking this match but for some reason I thought this line was in the high 300's last night and now its at -525.Tsonga being pounded now that people feel his injury concerns might be for nothing. IF Tsonga is healthy, there is no way he loses to Ljubicic.I have lost so much money on Ljubicic over my lifetime that I am so sick of him.When it comes to crunch time he is one of the worst players on tour. Probably one of the worst ever third ranked players in tennis.The fact that he is getting older now doesn't help either. Again,i'm not taking anyone in this match but Ljubicic won't win if Tsonga is healthy.

Simon -410 over Guccione. Seems like a good play to me. Simon usually plays well against a player with a big serve.One thing you have to worry about is Guccione having the home crowd behind him.With that in mind,I am probably not going to play Simon at these odds.Wish he was just a little bit lower. He will win the match though.

Monfils -485 over Koubek - Monfils off to a decent start so far this year. Many "experts" even tabbed him as a darkhorse to possibly win this tournament.I don't see that happening but he does have great game. Koubek won the one and only meeting between the two but that was back in 2005. Monfils has a possible knee problem so that is enough to stay away from this match,especially with odds like this.

Gasquet will beat Istomin but betting Gasquest at a high number like -700 is betting suicide. Don't have any faith in Gasquets game at all. He has all of the weapons but just isn't there mentally alot of the time. Passing on this

I like Haas today over Cipolla but again, the odds are just to high for me today.

Some decent matches on the board today but really the odds seem very over inflated today for some reason. Think I am going to pass on the mens draw today

**SBR Lou** · 01-21-09, 06:01 PM

J. Zheng -172
1.72 to win 1 units

A. Mauresmo -550
5.50 to win 1 units

M. Bartoli -214
6.42 to win 3 units

J. Dokic +630
.50 to win 3.15 units

A. Ivanovic -658
6.58 to win 1 units

A. Cornet -173
3.46 to win 2 units

ytd 19-16-1 +3.25

**Stacocakes** · 01-21-09, 06:32 PM

Women's tennis will take years off your life Crazy...beware haha

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-21-09, 06:35 PM

Gasquet was truly horrendous in his last match. If I'd ever seen Istomin play before and knew his game at all, I'd probably bet on him.

Unfortunately, my knowledge of Uzbek tennis isn't quite so hot at present.....

**Stacocakes** · 01-21-09, 07:06 PM

I'm going a very very small play on gasquet just to give me something to do haha

**Stacocakes** · 01-21-09, 10:59 PM

Added : Monfils -470

**Stacocakes** · 01-22-09, 01:13 AM

Back to back days of clean sweeps.Great way to pad the account

Gasquet and Monfils both winners. Don't think I will be making any late plays tonight. Lets make some more money tomorrow everyone

**Stacocakes** · 01-22-09, 03:20 AM

Just as a little piece of information, Ivanovic's odds have plummeted from -650s to -500 in one day. Do people know something about a possible injury that we don't?Are people just not to keen on betting ana at big odds?Thats a huge drop

**Stacocakes** · 01-23-09, 01:07 AM

Was doing some digging around and found a decent play for tonight.I'm going to parlay a couple matches

Seems that Santoro was having some bad cramping at the end of the Kohlchrieber match.Fitness may be an issue tonight against roddick and you must also have to factor in his age and it being harder for him to play these long matches.

Ivanovic - Line has plummeted all day.Can now get it at -386. Doesn't look like any injury issues but what is in question is her ball toss being all over the place and it affecting her serve. I'll take it anyways

Parlay Roddick/ Ivanovic/ Federer

A little late night action to have some fun and make a bit of cash

**jgbgsox** · 01-23-09, 01:45 AM

anyone think safin can pull off the upset?

**meganie** · 01-23-09, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by jgbgsox

anyone think safin can pull off the upset?

Nope. He doesn't have the mental strength to beat Federer. And his play is too brainless, much power, but no real shot making. Federer has not played his best so far though, so I give him a chance for winning a set.