baconbets' house of locks / streak for the lock

[baconbets]

only locks! dont care about the line? want something to add into a parlay? then you need these picks!

this lock thread will be locked if i miss a pick, so if you hate this thread and hate favorites, fade my picks and hope it gets locked!

for those who discriminate against any line paying less than even money, you will be surprised at what kind of results you can get by making strong plays on big favorites once in a while. no, not cruising the lines every day for anything over -1000, but instead taking advantage of stylistic certainties when they appear.

i will record a rolling total based on a par starting value of $100.

LET THERE BE LOCK!

[baconbets]

berdych over anderson, -550, wimbledon

sometimes, a guy just has your number. for anderson, that guy is berdych. berdych is 9-0 against anderson, with all 9 victories coming in the past year or so. it is rare to see such an extensive head to head in such a small window of time. i actually think anderson is a bit better and berdych a bit worse than their rankings suggest, and that berdych isnt overall that much better than anderson. but because he is just better at every phase of the game, it means anderson has no shot selection matchups to exploit, no reliable ways to win points. because of the surface speed and their styles of play, its very possible that berdych will need 4 or even 5 sets to win, because anderson may steal a tiebreak or 2, but berdych will win the match, most likely in straights. anderson has also had some issues with his right arm and shoulder this year, so just imagine how impossible it will be for him to win if his serve is even a bit off. berdych's big, flat, low percentage hitting style is so ridiculously suited to grass that it should be illegal. guaranteed he is steamed after getting bounced from the french so early and has shown his opponents no quarter so far, dropping no sets.

will the streak end before it begins? tune in tomorrow.

[MonkeyMoney]

i like gasquet on saturday

[baconbets]

the streak begins! i admit i was worried in that 4th set with berdych grabbing at his right shoulder.

berdych over anderson, -550, wimbledon
$100 @ -550 = $18.18
$118.18

on to the next lock!

bryan brothers over marrero/seppi, -1000, wimbledon

bryan brothers on fast surfaces are already a gimme, but seppi played a 5 setter earlier today and wont really be looking to dig deep against this formidable pair, especially since he won and will be looking ahead to his next singles match. wimbledon's best of 5 format favors the bryans here.

[Hardcoar]

Could you please tell me more about Bird's troubles? The shoulder...?

[baconbets]

i only watched a few minutes of the match but after the game in which berdych was broken in the 4th set, he was clutching under his right shoulder, like undernearth around the armpit, i guess that would be his teres major/minor or posterior deltoid. looked like he was in some discomfort, when serving. i stopped watching and he closed the match in the 4th, so it mustnt have bothered him too much because anderson was playing well enough to force him to work. i wouldnt read that much into it, as players like andy murray are famous for grimacing after they lose points or games, and start clutching at their bodies, as if to say "i was hobbled, not out-played."

[Hardcoar]

Ok so all you saw was this random hold of the limb?

[baconbets]

fake answer: his arm actually came loose from his body but the on-court physios were able to reattach it.

real answer: he served poorly and was broken fairly easily in the game i saw, then looked in pain and was working his shoulder out and grabbing underneath it. the commentators had also remarked earlier in the match that he must be purposely taking some steam off his first serve to focus on placement, because his serve wasnt registering as fast as it usually does. he should still flatten tomic, but i dont know if i would call it locksville.

[Hardcoar]

Ok thanks!

[theballsflop]

Murray and Djoko today are locks. Parlay for 1.15.

[baconbets]

definitely disagree, haas has performed well against djokovic this year and youzhny has shown great grass play this year.

i think delpo and janowicz have a better chance to beat their opponents and are paying much better. they might even rise to lock status, but i have until tomorrow to ruminate on that.

[theballsflop]

Valid points.

What about Ferrer vs Dodig?

[frugalgambler]

Valid points.

What about Ferrer vs Dodig?

Ferrer has been struggling. I have him to win his quarter, but he is making too many UEs; very uncharacteristic of him. I think he is tired of tennis a little bit. Hopefully, a day of rest will help, but I would not grade his match a lock.

[Hardcoar]

Po'Mo injured.

[baconbets]

anyone else get cleaned out on doubles today?

mirza/huber
mahut/llodra
mirnyi/tecau

all lost! thats what i get for not sticking with the locks.

[baconbets]

bryan brothers over marrero/seppi, -1000, wimbledon
$118.18 @ -1000 = $11.82
$130 total

on to the next lock!

anderson silva over chris weidman, -250, ufc 162

the only thing that will prevent silva from winning this contest is a lack of motivation. rarely in any combat sport has an athlete truly seen and done it all. anderson has nothing left to prove or fight for. he is wealthy beyond his wildest aspirations from when he was fighting for sandwiches in vale tudo in brazil 15 years ago. he wants a superfight with roy jones, but uncle dana wont let that happen. he hates the ufc and hates playing by the rules. one of these days, i predict he will throw a fight or vacate his belt just to piss off the brass and ride off arrogantly into the sunset.

but not today. anderson will defeat weidman easily with strikes. however, i do not recommend a TKO prop or an under rounds prop, because silva has a lot of ways to win, including the kinds of decision victories he turned in against leites and maia where both fighters refused to engage. silva can also finish via submission, either from bottom (sonnen), or from a dominant position (henderson). therefore, there is good value in the money line because it encompasses all types of victory. this is a gem of a line for the best mixed martial artist in history.

as far as the line is concerned, some may be curious as to why silva is not an even bigger favorite. in fact, the line has come down as we have gotten closer to the fight and silva has not been this light of a favorite since he fought dan henderson. it was -300 not long ago. usually, in the final days leading up to a fight, the casual fans are more likely to bet on the more known fighter, on the champ, and on the favorite. silva is all of those things, yet money is coming in on weidman.

why?

weidman carries an undefeated record. in mixed martial arts, if you can imagine it, you can do it. it is a fairly open combat contest. yet, fans suffer from an extreme lack of imagination. if a fighter has never been defeated, it is too challenging for most casuals and hardcore fans alike to imagine the fighter losing. weidman has never really been in trouble for most of his career, so it becomes more difficult to imagine him losing, even to silva. there is simply no footage of him having his weaknesses exposed, whereas we have 7+ rounds of sonnen, travis lutter, and dan henderson taking down silva and controlling him. that footage weighs heavily on people and influences how they imagine the fight playing out. in an effort to hype the fight, journalists have also been colluding with the ufc to make the fight seem more competitive than it really might be.

weidman's skillset is not all that different from anderson's other opponents. weidman is neither the best wrestler, best striker, or best submission grappler anderson has faced. conversely, anderson's skillset is significantly different and more challenging to overcome for weidman, who has never faced a good striker in the ufc. i dont even think weidman has been punched in the face, hard, in any of his fights. how will he react when silva goes into stalker mode, like against okami, and starts walking him down, strafing him with punches? he doesnt have the chin of henderson, or the perseverence of sonnen. weidman's claim to fame is that munoz dove fortuitously into his standing elbow strike. he doesnt have the tools to finish silva, which means silva has 5 rounds to find that one shot, or possibly earn a cut stoppage. note that even from the bottom, silva has great elbows, and can deliver a cut that way.

the X factor in this fight will be weidman's weight cut. if he has a poor cut and looks like shit at the weigh-ins, expect money to pour in on silva overnight. this is owing to how shitty weidman looked against maia when he took the fight on short notice and had difficulty making weight. he was lethargic and terrible in that fight, and he is still a very big middleweight who needs a precise cut to perform at his best.

[fattytrellis]

bryan brothers over marrero/seppi, -1000, wimbledon
$118.18 @ -000 = $11.82
$130

on to the next lock!

anderson silva over chris weidman, -250, ufc 162

the only thing that will prevent silva from winning this contest is a lack of motivation. rarely in any combat sport has an athlete truly seen and done it all. anderson has nothing left to prove or fight for. he is wealthy beyond his wildest aspirations from when he was fighting for sandwiches in vale tudo in brazil 15 years ago. he wants a superfight with roy jones, but uncle dana wont let that happen. he hates the ufc and hates playing by the rules. one of these days, i predict he will throw a fight or vacate his belt just to piss off the brass and ride off arrogantly into the sunset.

but not today. anderson will defeat weidman easily with strikes. however, i do not recommend a TKO prop or an under rounds prop, because silva has a lot of ways to win, including the kinds of decision victories he turned in against leites and maia where both fighters refused to engage. silva can also finish via submission, either from bottom (sonnen), or from a dominant position (henderson). therefore, there is good value in the money line because it encompasses all types of victory. this is a gem of a line for the best mixed martial artist in history.

as far as the line is concerned, some may be curious as to why silva is not an even bigger favorite. in fact, the line has come down as we have gotten closer to the fight and silva has not been this light of a favorite since he fought dan henderson. it was -300 not long ago. usually, in the final days leading up to a fight, the casual fans are more likely to bet on the more known fighter, on the champ, and on the favorite. silva is all of those things, yet money is coming in on weidman.

why?

weidman carries an undefeated record. in mixed martial arts, if you can imagine it, you can do it. it is a fairly open combat contest. yet, fans suffer from an extreme lack of imagination. if a fighter has never been defeated, it is too challenging for most casuals and hardcore fans alike to imagine the fighter losing. weidman has never really been in trouble for most of his career, so it becomes more difficult to imagine him losing, even to silva. there is simply no footage of him having his weaknesses exposed, whereas we have 7+ rounds of sonnen, travis lutter, and dan henderson taking down silva and controlling him. that footage weighs heavily on people and influences how they imagine the fight playing out. in an effort to hype the fight, journalists have also been colluding with the ufc to make the fight seem more competitive than it really might be.

weidman's skillset is not all that different from anderson's other opponents. weidman is neither the best wrestler, best striker, or best submission grappler anderson has faced. conversely, anderson's skillset is significantly different and more challenging to overcome for weidman, who has never faced a good striker in the ufc. i dont even think weidman has been punched in the face, hard, in any of his fights. how will he react when silva goes into stalker mode, like against okami, and starts walking him down, strafing him with punches? he doesnt have the chin of henderson, or the perseverence of sonnen. weidman's claim to fame is that munoz dove fortuitously into his standing elbow strike. he doesnt have the tools to finish silva, which means silva has 5 rounds to find that one shot, or possibly earn a cut stoppage. note that even from the bottom, silva has great elbows, and can deliver a cut that way.

the X factor in this fight will be weidman's weight cut. if he has a poor cut and looks like shit at the weigh-ins, expect money to pour in on silva overnight. this is owing to how shitty weidman looked against maia when he took the fight on short notice and had difficulty making weight. he was lethargic and terrible in that fight, and he is still a very big middleweight who needs a precise cut to perform at his best.

Have to disagree massively with this. Silva is the rightful favourite but this is as far from a lock as you could get in an MMA fight.

You mention that Weidman is not the best at anything that Silva has faced. I completely disagree. I think he is the best wrestler that Anderson has faced and we all saw what trouble he had with Chael Sonnen. On top of this Weidman has a hugely skilled ground game. He will not be submitted by Anderson and may even finish Anderson with a submission himself. On the feet, Weidman is good enough to not be finished whilst he establishes the takedowns he needs to win the fight.

Anderson has fought many people who are skilled in 1 area but not someone so well rounded like Weidman.
Chael Sonnen has submission defence issues. Demian Maia had the ground game but not the wrestling to take it to the ground.
In Weidman you have someone who certainly has a grappling advantage over Silva and good enough striking to get it to the ground.

Anderson is also getting old. At his age you never know when your body might start to lose its physical capabilities. Weidman is down to earth, motivated and very confident. Everyone who has trained with Weidman think he is a very bad matchup for Anderson and has a very legitimate chance of winning this fight.

Like I said, Anderson is the rightful favourite and should win this, but this is never a lock in a million years.

[baconbets]

forgot to add: weidman is coming off an injury and hasnt fought in a year.

his training partners think he can win? unheard of that training partners would praise each other.

anything can happen in combat sports. jones was 10 seconds away from losing his belt to sonnen if his toe had been discovered between rounds. but you have to jump on these opportunities when they arrive. anderson will punch weidman in the face, weidman will freak out and stop functioning.

anderson is a saavy grappler. his closed guard is extremely difficult to pass. henderson took him down and couldnt manage to do more than cover his mouth for a round. look at the trip he hit on nate marquardt as well. he doesnt have the wrestling or the right kind of build, or the right kind of style to show it, but he can grapple. the days of "once he gets the takedown, its over" are gone, maybe 5-7 years ago. from the mid-card guys and up, all the fights are decisions and tkos. everyone can grapple, no one is getting subbed anymore, unless its off getting rocked.

what submission do you see weidman winning with? the only one i can see is an arm triangle if anderson is extremely tired, but he needs to pass before he can do that. good enough striking to get it to the ground? silva lays on the cage and lets guys punch him in the face. after this fight, everyone will talk about how weidman wasnt ready, anderson never fights anyone good, etc. same old story.

anderson is getting old, and he has made some comments that were a bit disconcerting recently, such as "win or lose, i want to fight roy jones next." to me, that says hes looking for some big paydays before retiring and doesnt really care to compete anymore. beyond that, there is nothing stopping him from winning this fight.

[theballsflop]

Murray and Djoko were such locks, should have gone heavier than the 15units i put. Freaking hell, Serena cost me some dammit.

Silva @ 1.40? Hit it. Weidman hasn't fought in a year. It's actually reverse-hype about Silva that has all the haters coming out to support Weidman.

[baconbets]

Murray and Djoko were such locks, should have gone heavier than the 15units i put. Freaking hell, Serena cost me some dammit.

Silva @ 1.40? Hit it. Weidman hasn't fought in a year. It's actually reverse-hype about Silva that has all the haters coming out to support Weidman.

this is exactly right. in sports, there is the very pervasive fallacy of being "due." so and so is "due" for a win or due for a loss. this is typical childish, illogical thinking. people have seen silva tested by wrestlers before, so he must be "due" to lose to a wrestler. what people forget is that few fighters have improved as much in their career, and continue to improve, as anderson does. the anderson of today would beat the anderson that took the title from franklin, without a doubt. people think only younger, less experienced fighters improve, but that isnt true.

[fitguy67]

this is exactly right. in sports, there is the very pervasive fallacy of being "due." so and so is "due" for a win or due for a loss. this is typical childish, illogical thinking. people have seen silva tested by wrestlers before, so he must be "due" to lose to a wrestler. what people forget is that few fighters have improved as much in their career, and continue to improve, as anderson does. the anderson of today would beat the anderson that took the title from franklin, without a doubt. people think only younger, less experienced fighters improve, but that isnt true.

^^^great post^^^

[fitguy67]

isn't Edgar over Oliveira at leas as (even more, IMO) bomb-proof than Silva over Weidman?

[baconbets]

ive never seen edgar's, pierce's, or barboza's opponents, so i cant really do a summary on those matchups in good faith, but yes, those matchups seem like easy wins for the favorites.

[fitguy67]

the only thing that will prevent silva from winning this contest is a lack of motivation. rarely in any combat sport has an athlete truly seen and done it all. anderson has nothing left to prove or fight for. he is wealthy beyond his wildest aspirations from when he was fighting for sandwiches in vale tudo in brazil 15 years ago. he wants a superfight with roy jones, but uncle dana wont let that happen. he hates the ufc and hates playing by the rules. one of these days, i predict he will throw a fight or vacate his belt just to piss off the brass and ride off arrogantly into the sunset.

damn, baconbets...that was prophetic

[fattytrellis]

Can't say I didn't warn you... Opposite of a lock...