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Wimby First Round + Long Explanations
Muller over Haas (-125)
The big serving Muller coming off of a few good wins vs tomic, ebden, and sweeting. He should have a good amount of confidence, and is playing on his best surface. Haas on the other hand has very little match play in the last year, has a 7 month old daughter, and not much confidence I wouldnt think. Don't know how good his fitness will be in a best of 5 format with his little match play. Also, he even says on his twitter page that he believes he still "has a long way to go" but is making progress.
Young over Bogomolov (+123)
I think that faster courst should favor Donald here as his serve is considerably better than Bogomolov's and plays a more agressive game. Donald is someone that is very fragile emotionally, but when he starts winning some matches, can be tough to play on faster courts. Head to head from 4 years ago doesnt bother me much. Happy to take Donald at a dog price in what should be more like Even i think.
Kamke over Kavcic (-135)
Kamke is in terrible form right now and has lost two matches to Kavcic this year on clay. Nonetheless, Kamke is a much better fast cour player than Kavic and belive that Kamke should be more like -200 vs Kavcic giving us good value here. Might still lay off though just bc of how bad Kamke's form has been as of late.
Riba over Haase (+552)
Taking a shot in the dark here. Haase has a big serve, but not much else to be proud of in his game. His most effective shot is a backhand drop shot, which shouldn't be too effective vs a quick Riba who is used to playing on clay. Riba played Dodig very tough on grass two weeks ago, losing in two tiebreak sets. No idea why riba played a clay court tourney last week....doesn't look like he believes he can do well here but I still have a strange feeling about this one. I do believe that Riba will win most of the long rallies in the match. Haase did beat him on clay in 2010, but still I see value here. Call me crazy.
Granollers game line vs Fish
Definitely might play the game line vs Fish here if it is >+7. Might even play the ml. He somehow seems to always lose at least one set in the first round of majors. This years french, he lost a set to melo. This years Aussie open, he lost 2 sets to Hanescu. Last year's Us Open, he came in with amazing form and lost 2 sets to Hajek (wtf) - btw amazing scoreline in that match 6-0 3-6 4-6 6-0 6-1. Fish is a very accomplished grasscourt player, but he has not played any warm up events like he did last year. Neither has granollers, but granollers is no slouch. He has a booming serve that should penetrate the grass court well and went 3-2 last year on grass, beating tips and losing to soderling and querrey.
Gulbis over Tursonov
Yes, I'm taking the donk gulbo over someone in great form on grass courts. I am going to wait a bit on this, as I think people will be all over Tursonov after this week. Tursonov has played 4 out of the last 5 weeks and will have to travel to get to the UK after tomorrow's match. For an old man, that is too much travel and too much tennis. Gulbo is clearly the more talented player, and if he can muster up some desire to play tennis he should be able to win. With his serve, he always has a chance to win any match. If he doesn't care at wimbledon, when will he ever? Getting the more talented player at what might end up being +200 is great for me. Or, I might just be an idiot.
Robredo over Lu (+112)
Robredo was having a fantastic year before his huge injury. Don't know how great of match shape he is in, but I know that he has been hitting quite a bit with Nadal over the past few days over on the Wimby practice courts. His twitter comments lead me to believe that he seems pretty motivated to get back to winning ways. Lu in horrible form. Don't think Tommy will need to play that well to win this match.
Isner (-190)/Llodra parlay (-240)
Ward had his run 2 weeks ago. He has a very big serve, but really struggles returning the ball. Llodra has an equally big serve and think his experience > crowd as long as his injury is ok. Think Isner should be favored more as well.
As always, opinions are welcome.
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