[beefcake]

I was bored this afternoon and was scanning the challenger results so far this year. Seemed to me whenever a wildcard entry was playing a player who was not from the host country, there were lots of + underdogs that won. I know lots of times the local Tennis Federation of the home country gives these out to young teenagers or in the USA to college kids.(example, michael shabazz who did so well in Charlottesville last year).
If I have the time in the next week,maybe I'll check the record and units if you were in theory, bet 1 unit on all the wildcards who were + money dogs who didnt play other country men in the tourney. My guess is that the winning % might be 35-40% but possibly + units due to upsets..Or I could be totally wasting my time here??

I would think the motivation to play well is there for the WC's, and not so for the seeded players they go up against. I know if i was give an a free entry I would play my ass off, and even though the skill level is not comparable to the seasoned pros that play challenger events, throw in the home country edge and in some cases home city or town edge, it can cancel much of the advantage that a pro has over them. Also, many of these WC"s are amateur players with no prize money to gain. I know in the US all prize money won by these players goes right back to the USTA pool to pay for expenses, but I cant speak for other countries. Also, travel fatigue would not really IMO play a role in their matches unlike the pros who are coming off other tourneys or ATP events.

I still think the challenger circuit is an untapped market and one was willing to really break it down you could find MANY really good advantages, due to the books knowing even less about certain players and lines.
Personally I dont have the time to devote to this but with all the information with twitter,wikipedia, personal player websites, I know FOR A FACT the books do not have the time to follow the challenger circuit.The lines even more then the ATP tour will be based on the ranking only due to the fact in some cases NOTHING is know about some of these WILDCARDS..

Any other opinions or critiques, or if you just want to tell me I'm a dumbass for doing or thinking this..feel free..

[reformed]

you are definitely on to something...my friend adam el midhawy who plays challengers on a limited basis told me that many times the YOUNG guys from the home country who get in the challenger only because they are given the wild cards are the ones hungriest to do well since if they dont someone else will get a wild card next time in search of a breakout performer. Additionally(and it would be difficult to get your hands on this kind of info), according to him many times these guys who are stuck on the challenger circuit and basically live paycheck to paycheck will try to play matches(against those they think are inferior opponents) with injuries that they shouldn't even be playing with and obviously lose more often than not. On a similar thought, these same guys who need the money also overplay and sooner or later that fatigue catches up with them.

[beefcake]

Makes sense!
Here is the spreadsheet for Home country Wildcards(all challenger events for 2011) that play non-countrymen..assuming 1 unit stake and taking them only when they are +money..

Only 30% winners but only down 5 units...Not bad considering..


Let me know if the link does not work..

[reformed]

the books make up for the fact of limited research on challengers with insane juice and much lowers than usual payouts on underdogs.