1. 05-30-11 04:15 PM #1
    prior22usaf
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    Need some Hedging Advice! I've got $500 on Li Na to win at 25-to-1

    I need some advice from you tennis experts out there. I've got a $500 Futures bet on Li Na to win @RG that I put in before her last match at 25-to-1 odds. I'm looking to hedge at least a little. I'm just not sure the smartest way to go about it. She's got Azarenka up next with Sharapova possibly waiting for her in the next round. Shoulld I try to just straight up bet Azarenka (-240ish fav) or just try to put Futures bets in on some of the other women in the tournament (If so, which ones?). Appreciate any advice... What say you all?
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  2. 05-30-11 04:33 PM #2
    reformed
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    I would put 2400 on azarenka and then if she beats her then let it ride.
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  3. 05-30-11 06:29 PM #3
    noober
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    Your futures bet has not increased in value that much. When you make this kind of bets I would suggest you have a predetermined plan of what to do. My advice is to go Betfair and bet $5835 that Li is not winning it. This will lock you a profit of $164.
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  4. 05-30-11 06:40 PM #4
    beefcake
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    Let it ride man, hopefully you thought that Li was going to win this tourney when you made that bet. If she comes out of that bracket she would be a small fav or a small dog vs any of the other chicks on the other side. Then you should hedge in the final. If she can beat Kvitova then Azarenka should be no problem, and the bookies will realize that when she meets Kuzzy/Fatty/He- man/ or Pavy in the finall
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  5. 05-30-11 07:22 PM #5
    leeloo
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    I'm no expert but from what I've seen Azarenka will win it all this RG.
    Good luck with whatever you chose to do.
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  6. 05-30-11 07:34 PM #6
    EaglesPhan36
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    I think the only thing other than letting it ride is something you asked about taking another of the player's as a future. You could grab Azarenka at around +250 I think right now. If you bet $200 on it and she wins, you come out dead even with your original future on Li. You'd also like have a + money hedge on Azarenka in every match after this one as she'll likely be considered the favorite all the way through. Of course the bummer is if she loses, you dropped $200 - but then you're still alive for a large pay day with Li and it would be the semis so you could probably then just take her opponent straight up to cover everything. Seems very complicated though, but if you're trying to guarantee yourself money and don't think Li is going to win against Azarenka - it might be something to look over.
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  7. 05-30-11 07:37 PM #7
    Blax0r
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    I agree w/ the last two posters; Azarenka's form has been very good and looks like the favorite to win it all. (Usually, letting the bet ride is the best action, but Azarenka looks +EV) At least put a little on Azarenka on the QF match.
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  8. 05-30-11 08:04 PM #8
    prior22usaf
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    I appreciate the insight guys.... I do still like Li Na a lot and of course thinks she has just as much a chance (if not more) as everyone else in this field, althought I think Azarenka could take this match which is why I'm thinking of hedging out a little bit now. I have Azarenka at +250 to win it all so I'll pry throw the $200 toward her now still obviously hoping Li Na takes her down.

    I'm still kind of debating it all thought still so any further ideas/thoughts....please share!
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  9. 05-30-11 08:35 PM #9
    reformed
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    field to win other than li is -1733 at 5dimes if you want to take that route.
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  10. 06-01-11 12:14 PM #10
    reformed
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    you definitely should consider hedging right now. sharapova is -210, field is -428
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  11. 06-01-11 04:33 PM #11
    goblue12
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    You have a +2500 which fair odds are -348.8 / +348.8 giving you 479.32% edge on market price.

    If you don't want it, I'll take it.
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  12. 06-01-11 08:25 PM #12
    prior22usaf
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    Quote Originally Posted by goblue12 View Post
    You have a +2500 which fair odds are -348.8 / +348.8 giving you 479.32% edge on market price.

    If you don't want it, I'll take it.

    Hey again guys, hoping to get your thoughts once again on this..... I actually did a little bit of hedging on some of the other women to win the French before Li Na's last match versus Azarenka. I have listed those hedges below.

    Svetlana Kuznetsova-$200 bet at +560
    Victoria Azarenka-$500 bet at +245
    Maria Sharapova-$500 bet at +290
    Francesca Schivaone-$200 bet at +600

    So, pretty much I've lost $700, but have some hedges still alive with Sharapova and Schiavone. I was wondering what you thought of the current situation I'm in here. You think I should add any cash on the above 3 to win or even put some money on Bartoli (I'd be really screwed if she won). I'm not really a tennis expert (more of a casual fan), so I wanted to get your thoughts. Any thoughts would be much appreciated....Thanks!
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  13. 06-01-11 08:41 PM #13
    Hall2Collie
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    I'd let the semi-finals play out

    If Bartoli beats Schivaone and faces Sharapova she will be a decent size dog

    If Li faces Bartoli then I'd probably let it ride since Bartoli will probably be a small fav

    If Bartoli losses in the Semi then sit back and enjoy
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  14. 06-02-11 06:11 AM #14
    and24
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    Quote Originally Posted by noober View Post
    Your futures bet has not increased in value that much. When you make this kind of bets I would suggest you have a predetermined plan of what to do. My advice is to go Betfair and bet $5835 that Li is not winning it. This will lock you a profit of $164.

    that's what you should do. just determine how much you wanna get if li na can't win it all.
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  15. 06-02-11 06:19 AM #15
    jididii
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    Gl luck today!

    Jididii
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  16. 06-02-11 09:02 AM #16
    EaglesPhan36
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    Looking good dude. Guaranteed money however you do it.
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  17. 06-02-11 09:10 AM #17
    Gaskan
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Looking good dude. Guaranteed money however you do it.

    Cha ching!!!! wow nice bet. Now you can hedge or roll the dice for all the marbles.
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  18. 06-02-11 09:15 AM #18
    macoeric
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    Nice, bet you're happy after that match!
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  19. 06-02-11 09:16 AM #19
    legendmatt34
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    share next time
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  20. 06-02-11 09:16 AM #20
    beefcake
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    Li/Schi should be pick..And Li/fatty should be Li -150 I think..That said nice job on the future!
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  21. 06-03-11 04:27 PM #21
    prior22usaf
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    Thanks for the advice guys....

    I was hoping to get thoughts on the match between Li Na and Schiavone. I have actually not added any bets other than the ones I previously told you about, so was curious as to what you thought about possibly adding money to Schiavone or just letting it go. Any thoughts would be much appreciated.... Thanks!
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  22. 06-03-11 04:54 PM #22
    Blax0r
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    Congrats on fighting the hedging temptation! You're in a very enviable position now.

    For a perfect hedge and assuming 1-1 odds for Schiavone, sticking 6500 will net you 6000 no matter what.

    My suggestion is at least put enough on Schiavone to get your money back on Li bet. However, it may be worth compiling a "payoff/profit" spreadsheet and figure out the hedge amount that suits you best.
    Last edited by Blax0r; 06-03-11 at 05:02 PM.
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  23. 06-03-11 06:04 PM #23
    reformed
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    add a couple thousand on schiavone in case Li cant handle the moment
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  24. 06-05-11 02:12 AM #24
    delpiero7
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    Well played sir.
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  25. 06-06-11 12:02 AM #25
    prior22usaf
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    Thanks for all the advice throughtout the last few Ni La matches guys..... It turns out I had a winning ticket from the start, but it's really hard to resist hedging...lol Biggest ticket I've ever cashed... Again thanks for the advice guys and Congrats to Li Na! I've got to put money on her to win Wimbledon now just because!
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  26. 06-06-11 12:37 AM #26
    ROYAJA8
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    how much money did you lose on hedging? You shoulda just stick with your gut feeling but still good win.
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  27. 06-06-11 04:03 PM #27
    prior22usaf
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    Quote Originally Posted by ROYAJA8 View Post
    how much money did you lose on hedging? You shoulda just stick with your gut feeling but still good win.

    lost $1400 but still made $11,100 so I'm not complaining
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  28. 06-06-11 04:08 PM #28
    Hall2Collie
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    Quote Originally Posted by ROYAJA8 View Post
    how much money did you lose on hedging? You shoulda just stick with your gut feeling but still good win.
    Not at all

    Hedging was always the smartest play

    Guaranteed money > cheerleading for one person to win on a 50/50 matchup
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  29. 06-07-11 02:08 AM #29
    makman
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    Quote Originally Posted by ROYAJA8 View Post
    how much money did you lose on hedging? You shoulda just stick with your gut feeling but still good win.
    Never!

    Hedging is a good thing when you are profiting good. It s better always saying " ....i shouldnt hedge ..." instead of saying ".......I should hedge ......."
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  30. 06-07-11 03:41 AM #30
    tankman777
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    cool winning very well done sir
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