[Lazy-Man]

She was a +220 dog yesterday now she dropped down 60 cents. Huge line movement means arvidsson will win. Trust me on this!!

[Lazy-Man]

Not to mention she's 0-4 lifetime against kanepi so public is all over kaia.

[EaglesPhan36]

She was a +220 dog yesterday now she dropped down 60 cents. Huge line movement means arvidsson will win. Trust me on this!!

Worst reasoning ever, but good luck. Tennis line movement means very little on most occasions as far as who is going to win.

[Gaskan]

She was a +220 dog yesterday now she dropped down 60 cents. Huge line movement means arvidsson will win. Trust me on this!!

Is this as good a lock as your "Zheng is gonna lose" lock from early? From the looks of it early on it is? Keep them coming though, one is bound to hit.

[gators0708]

Good call!!!! Not

[courtemanche08]

lol at your reasoning and bet

[yisman]

[EaglesPhan36]

As Shari has pointed out many times. There should be a STICKY thread with people who make bets based on line movement in tennis. Count the number of times the line movement correlates to the actual winner on one hand.

[shari91]

As Shari has pointed out many times. There should be a STICKY thread with people who make bets based on line movement in tennis. Count the number of times the line movement correlates to the actual winner on one hand.

I was thinking of that when I saw this thread yesterday

You know how I feel about line movement - how I hate when it's going in my favour because more often than not it's a bust, especially in Slams. Thankfully this time I had Kanepi a few hours before he posted this so I felt good about the final leg in my parlay

[HKT]

So is fading the line movement actually profitable to a small degree, kind of like fading Lang on all his picks?

[shari91]

So is fading the line movement actually profitable to a small degree, kind of like fading Lang on all his picks?

Literally it would be over the long run. I think the numbers are by 4-5% in men's and 7-8% in women's over 5yrs +. Give or take a %.

That being said though, I'd just ignore it. Lines swing quite often, especially in Slams as more casual tennis bettors jump on board. A big chunk of the reason the line moved here is that Kaia's physio was quoted saying she had a respiratory illness a couple of days before the match and if her match had been a day before, he may have advised against her playing but that she should be fine for yesterday. Forums pick up on that and word spreads like wildfire with people thinking they're "being sharp" so they start pounding Arvidsson. And we all saw what happened in that match 7-5 6-1.

Tennis isn't like baseball or basketball where line movement is quite often indicative of sharp money. In tennis, it's quite often the opposite.

[HKT]

Good stuff Shari, thanks.