1. #1
    cleaveland
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    Why would books give out info to help you beat them?

    I saw this question asked yesterday in relation to the "most wagered" lists. I think the answer to the question is very counter-intuitive. The books are happy to help you beat them IF...

    you help them balance their books in the process. I think the books are often desperate to get balanced action on the "most wagered" plays so if you're fading those plays and winning you're actually helping the books despite the fact that you're winning, imho.

    Anyone agree/disagree with that?

  2. #2
    spankie
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    they give the info out cuz they want u to think like 90% of the egg heads that use the information and look for "trends".

  3. #3
    Jaug
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    I mean any fool can put up the market line and juice it up. In that case there is no such thing as beeting a bookie, you just get lucky.

  4. #4
    dfberger23
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  5. #5
    Chimneyfish
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    The books can't really be "beat" for the most part anyway. The more people wager on a game the more money they make, and the more info they give on the games the more it will encourage people to bet it thinking they have an inside angle. It's kind of like how casinos are eager to give out free blackjack strategy cards, which would seem to be counterintuitive. It's because getting people at the tables is much more profitable than anything they can do once they're playing.

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    your not beating books unless maybe you bet after 1st qtr of a game

    Books will give you all the info you want

    They want you to bet

  7. #7
    Dirty Sanchez
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    Quote Originally Posted by cleaveland View Post
    I saw this question asked yesterday in relation to the "most wagered" lists. I think the answer to the question is very counter-intuitive. The books are happy to help you beat them IF...

    you help them balance their books in the process. I think the books are often desperate to get balanced action on the "most wagered" plays so if you're fading those plays and winning you're actually helping the books despite the fact that you're winning, imho.

    Anyone agree/disagree with that?
    First off...using the word counter-intuitive is a word that most here won't understand, so dumb it down a little. Second, How do you know the "info" you're getting is something you can trust as being accurate? Maybe the dude is giving you bogus info to take your money

  8. #8
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dirty Sanchez View Post
    First off...using the word counter-intuitive is a word that most here won't understand, so dumb it down a little. Second, How do you know the "info" you're getting is something you can trust as being accurate? Maybe the dude is giving you bogus info to take your money
    The thread I'm referring to was about vegasinsider, they've been around forever, I think they're as legit as they come. Also, I trust betcris' "most wagered" numbers because they're also as legit as they come.

  9. #9
    ThaddeusB
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    I'm sure that just as many people use the wagering percentages to bet the same way as "everyone else" as use it to fade "everyone else."

  10. #10
    d2bets
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    What kind of "info" are you talking about?

  11. #11
    rm18
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    just basically making it easier for potential bettors to see what side the sharp money is on, but they think it is a tool to get more action I guess it works hard to say books are not that smart though sometimes.

  12. #12
    sneak-a-peak
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    Books want the average joe or "square" to chase.

    When it comes to "gambling" its human nature to feel the need to start doubling down after a bad streak to make up for losses and most of us know the ending to that story and the books do too.

    Im sure there has been many victims of chasing and going bust since the beginning of time and thats how the books stay in biz.

    The books will ALWAYS win.

    Think about this- if every sports bettor was making serious money month in and month out there would be no money that the books would be profiting right?

    Well then the reputable books (A+ ones for instance) would have to start going with -115 or -120 on both sides and making the odds harder on the players til the winners stop winning- so ya the books can never lose.

    Yes, that scenario would make exchanges even much more popular than now but there would still have to be losers in the exchanges for the winners to get down what they desire to.

  13. #13
    Borat38
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    A win that seemed to have come from a "calculated decision" (but was really just dumb luck) inspires squares to bet even more or more frequently next time. That's good business in the long term.

  14. #14
    Degenerate
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    They do it to give people a false sense of confidence and a reason to make a bet.

  15. #15
    Chimneyfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    What kind of "info" are you talking about?
    I think he's talking about looking at the percentages that show which side the majority of the money is coming in on and then just betting the opposite.

    SBR Reverse-Squarism at its finest.

  16. #16
    mtneer1212
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    The info is priced into the lines...... it doesn't matter.

  17. #17
    underthe total
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chimneyfish View Post
    I think he's talking about looking at the percentages that show which side the majority of the money is coming in on and then just betting the opposite. SBR Reverse-Squarism at its finest.
    that is not a word, and even if you are intending to make a word and a meaning, its wrong. i am sorry. i#91 am not trying to bash you or whoever else used it.

    sqaure is a term related to how someone bets.

    hey this is #91 give me notre dame for 100, and parlay them with \over in that game.

    a sqaure would bet -5 when the line is really -3.

  18. #18
    TRE1968
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    show me anybody that has beat them with this info

  19. #19
    WeinketoWarrick
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    books don't give out info to help you...

  20. #20
    BettingGeek
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    they want you to believe that you could "beat" them. Hence, you will bet more, bet big. You already know what's gonn' happen.

  21. #21
    Chimneyfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by underthe total View Post
    that is not a word
    You don't say?

  22. #22
    underthe total
    under
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    chimney see other post

  23. #23
    mminkovski
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    Books never like when you beat them, never. I always had problems when winning too much.

  24. #24
    Dark Horse
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    The quality of the information books give out is not enough to beat them. That makes the information useful to draw people in.

  25. #25
    cleaveland
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
    The quality of the information books give out is not enough to beat them. That makes the information useful to draw people in.
    Yeah, they never include totals or money lines in the "most wagered" for basketball, I think that's an example of what you mean.

  26. #26
    Igetp2s
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    The number of bets on a given side is meaningless. It is the dollar volume that is more important.

  27. #27
    PD77
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    The information you get from the books is usually sportsticker garbage that is widely available to the public and woefully outdated. I do find the wagaering statistics that are provided by the book interesting at times but I dont trust them. The valuable information isnt released to the general public until after the game has started.

  28. #28
    notsosharp
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    because nobody is 100%. the very best are lucky to be at 55%.

  29. #29
    poochiecollins
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    The information given may not actually be predictive, the sample size may be too small, the information presented may be biased, and/or the information is false.

  30. #30
    mikejamm
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    Just read the information and "bet" the exact opposite!

  31. #31
    sapidoc
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    Completely agree with you OP. However there's a lot more going on.

    1) Most-wagered lists are % of bets, not % of money. Doesn't matter if 99% on one side if the 1% guy bets $1 Million on the game. There's not enough information given out to let you know the % of money. If you have that information (% of money), please provide the link.

    2) You could also argue that the books are better than you at setting lines (they are). So while you will win and lose in accordance with variance, they will nail you on 50% long run and you will end up paying the juice. It's way worse than this because you are not good at bankroll management. You bet more than you have and can't accept real variance because of it. They know this. The key is just getting you to bet.

    3) When they are not better than you at setting the lines, there's usually a reason and more often than not they are raking the transfer of stupid$ to your$. Be happy if you fall into this category. You are a rare breed.

  32. #32
    yisman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chimneyfish View Post
    The books can't really be "beat" for the most part anyway. The more people wager on a game the more money they make, and the more info they give on the games the more it will encourage people to bet it thinking they have an inside angle. It's kind of like how casinos are eager to give out free blackjack strategy cards, which would seem to be counterintuitive. It's because getting people at the tables is much more profitable than anything they can do once they're playing.
    This is exactly right, and especially true with blackjack. The more that play blackjack, the more the casino wins, regardless of how many players use perfect strategy.

  33. #33
    Monte
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    The best Info you can get is to compare their line to Pinny, MB, Betfair...etc.
    Everything else is hokus pokus, they know that, and you should know it too btw.

  34. #34
    Legions36
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    Just use all the damn books and that info crap is garbage. get what u can from the books, use multiple books,get the best line,use the exchange,thats the best info u can get, so hard to beat them with 1 book.

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