1. #1
    acquavallo
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    Who is still offering Election odds?

    Have scoured everywhere. Thanks

  2. #2
    DontTailMe
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    Quote Originally Posted by acquavallo View Post
    Have scoured everywhere. Thanks
    Bovada and PredictIt. That's all I'm aware of at the moment.

  3. #3
    Optional
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    Smarkets still has some markets live

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  4. #4
    Optional
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    Trump at -125 to Concede sounds like decent value to me.

    Unless you expect he will need to be physically dragged out, if he loses he has to be very likely to concede eventually.

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  5. #5
    TheGuesser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Trump at -125 to Concede sounds like decent value to me.

    Unless you expect he will need to be physically dragged out, if he loses he has to be very likely to concede eventually.
    He will never say the words, I concede, I lost, etc, nor will he congratulate Biden or offer him support. So it depends on the wording of how the bet will be graded. If leaving office means he "conceded", then yeah.

  6. #6
    DontTailMe
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    Quote Originally Posted by DontTailMe View Post
    Bovada and PredictIt. That's all I'm aware of at the moment.
    Oh, and Fairlay.

  7. #7
    DontTailMe
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGuesser View Post
    He will never say the words, I concede, I lost, etc, nor will he congratulate Biden or offer him support. So it depends on the wording of how the bet will be graded. If leaving office means he "conceded", then yeah.
    Yeah, he'll be saying the election was fraudulently stolen from him as he's walking out the White House doors. He will never admit defeat.

  8. #8
    mtneer1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by DontTailMe View Post
    Yeah, he'll be saying the election was fraudulently stolen from him as he's walking out the White House doors. He will never admit defeat.
    He might take a dump in the Rose Garden on the way out.
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  9. #9
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Betfair has some, including some odd liquidity. Eg you can get Biden to get most votes at 1.04, when he's currently 5.3 million votes ahead, and with mostly blue state votes to come it's going to be 6.5m or so.

  10. #10
    acquavallo
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    Quote Originally Posted by DontTailMe View Post
    Oh, and Fairlay.
    thanks. I had seen the first two's very low, disappointing odds (on Trump). I was hoping for a more "unaware" situation, with more specific number props on him and Congress. Guess the books are not giving away anything this time.

  11. #11
    Inspirited
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    Any odds on trump becoming a tru dictator?

  12. #12
    acquavallo
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    Betfair has some, including some odd liquidity. Eg you can get Biden to get most votes at 1.04, when he's currently 5.3 million votes ahead, and with mostly blue state votes to come it's going to be 6.5m or so.
    Thanks, Betfair had nothing up last night. Is it that they close and reopen those bets each day?

  13. #13
    Pareto
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    Quote Originally Posted by acquavallo View Post
    Thanks, Betfair had nothing up last night. Is it that they close and reopen those bets each day?
    Its the exchange not the sportsbook. The markets are always up.

  14. #14
    themike78
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtneer1212 View Post
    He might take a dump in the Rose Garden on the way out.
    Lol. That would be incredible.

  15. #15
    themike78
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    Any odds on Biden having a stroke before inauguration?
    Points Awarded:

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  16. #16
    acquavallo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Trump at -125 to Concede sounds like decent value to me.

    Unless you expect he will need to be physically dragged out, if he loses he has to be very likely to concede eventually.
    I agree with 99.99% of what you post, but you're way off on this one. I've done a complete, deep dive on this one- all partisanship aside.
    The main problem is that all tech & mainstream media, including Fox, have gone beyond their usual minimizing \ contradicting \ burying, to outright ignoring & deleting...99% of relevant stuff has not been presented to the general public, in a desperate attempt that the clock running down + pressure from unknowing public carries Biden. (In fact, their own Leftist partisans are also so unaware that the sudden shock \ outrage will likely trigger the most vicious protests ever.)

    I could prove my point- but it'd be extremely long- winded & why kill odds for many.
    I will say this- this is the organized crime of the century. The vote counts of the six states in question (pa, az, wi, mi, ga, nv) were absolutely cooked to the tune of several million each, and Trump actually won them all (this was also done in 40+ other states). Without counting the cheating in 30+ other States, only the 6 in question, his popular vote so far is at 75-80 million & 300+ Electoral votes, Biden closer to 60.The upcoming recounts will prove it without needing help (& thus protracted periods) from the courts & legislatures- although i hope the process goes to completion for the sake of the lesser offices, for there's even a small chance the House gets flipped. If it doesn't, due to the sheer resources and time necessary, we may never confirm all the numbers- each State had multiply cheating methods in place \ just one uncovering flips the State, no need to run up the score. Ditto for the total of six states- as soon as the necessary 3 states are done, but for the sake of Congress & other offices, including local, i hope this gets done to the bitter end.

    So bet Trump 2nd term with both fists. He wins on the present recounts, and as if that wasn't enough, the Right controls the 3 other backup roads: Courts, legislatures of the 6 states ( only they certify vote & appoint electors- gov & state officials have no say), US House (by state delegations- 31+ of 50 depending on final official results).

    Long term this will result in huge backlashes.
    Will hasten cable tv cord cutting & disdain for the main tv networks- specially their news & sports divisions- and their corporate parents. Even among Leftists, because lying about and hiding negative news from non-Leftist viewers also bamboozled their own partisans.
    Alternative news sites and media platforms will overtake the present Titans- it's already begun actually.
    And will immediately trigger a complete overhaul of elections.
    And we may see a split into multiple parties.

    As soon as recounts are posted, even if not official, I'll post criminal details. You probably won't believe them, they're too ridiculous even for a B Hollywood script. The Dems were so brazen & over the top, with many scatterbrained... plus no one really in total control, otherwise we never find out. Ditto if any other Repub was President- would've conceded \ folded over like a cheap suit. Ditto also with a less popular President, and this last was the main trigger- surmounting deficits of millions of votes was just too much to surreptitiously pull off.
    Repubs just dodged a bullet of never again winning office or Congressional majority.
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  17. #17
    acquavallo
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    Quote Originally Posted by themike78 View Post
    Any odds on Biden having a stroke before inauguration?
    He acts like he's already had a couple.

  18. #18
    DontTailMe
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    Quote Originally Posted by acquavallo View Post
    thanks. I had seen the first two's very low, disappointing odds (on Trump). I was hoping for a more "unaware" situation, with more specific number props on him and Congress. Guess the books are not giving away anything this time.
    Almost any odds on Trump are too low at this point, considering Biden has won. Thinking Trump might somehow flip 3 states or 37 faithless electors is crazy pants.

  19. #19
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Quote Originally Posted by DontTailMe View Post
    Almost any odds on Trump are too low at this point, considering Biden has won. Thinking Trump might somehow flip 3 states or 37 faithless electors is crazy pants.
    The only vaguely plausible route was somehow delaying Pennsylvania and Georgia certification by tying them up in endless lawsuits, so they couldn't send electors, then flipping one more elector. That denies Biden an EC majority (he'd be on 269), and the next stage means Trump would then win a congressional vote.

    Thing is, Trump's suits in PA have all been thrown out since he couldn't present any actual evidence. PA electors are also picked by the governor, who is a Democrat.

    Meanwhile, Georgia's certification date is 5pm next Friday, and there's no sign of anything there. That's it, end of game.


    You can see from Trump's press conf today he's been told it's over. They're looking for pardons now, perhaps a self-pardon (might not hold up), or resign and get Pence to pardon him, as with Nixon.
    Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 11-13-20 at 04:53 PM.

  20. #20
    BigJay
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    BAS had opening odds about six weeks ago on will anyone concede by nov. 17th as:

    Yes -375
    No +325

    When first posted. Within an hour of posting the line was even.

    I agree with most here. You’d have to get. Very clear definition of the bet rules. Trump will never, ever say the words or make a traditional concession phone call.

  21. #21
    robbypark
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    Quote Originally Posted by acquavallo View Post
    I agree with 99.99% of what you post, but you're way off on this one. I've done a complete, deep dive on this one- all partisanship aside.
    The main problem is that all tech & mainstream media, including Fox, have gone beyond their usual minimizing \ contradicting \ burying, to outright ignoring & deleting...99% of relevant stuff has not been presented to the general public, in a desperate attempt that the clock running down + pressure from unknowing public carries Biden. (In fact, their own Leftist partisans are also so unaware that the sudden shock \ outrage will likely trigger the most vicious protests ever.)

    I could prove my point- but it'd be extremely long- winded & why kill odds for many.
    I will say this- this is the organized crime of the century. The vote counts of the six states in question (pa, az, wi, mi, ga, nv) were absolutely cooked to the tune of several million each, and Trump actually won them all (this was also done in 40+ other states). Without counting the cheating in 30+ other States, only the 6 in question, his popular vote so far is at 75-80 million & 300+ Electoral votes, Biden closer to 60.The upcoming recounts will prove it without needing help (& thus protracted periods) from the courts & legislatures- although i hope the process goes to completion for the sake of the lesser offices, for there's even a small chance the House gets flipped. If it doesn't, due to the sheer resources and time necessary, we may never confirm all the numbers- each State had multiply cheating methods in place \ just one uncovering flips the State, no need to run up the score. Ditto for the total of six states- as soon as the necessary 3 states are done, but for the sake of Congress & other offices, including local, i hope this gets done to the bitter end.

    So bet Trump 2nd term with both fists. He wins on the present recounts, and as if that wasn't enough, the Right controls the 3 other backup roads: Courts, legislatures of the 6 states ( only they certify vote & appoint electors- gov & state officials have no say), US House (by state delegations- 31+ of 50 depending on final official results).

    Long term this will result in huge backlashes.
    Will hasten cable tv cord cutting & disdain for the main tv networks- specially their news & sports divisions- and their corporate parents. Even among Leftists, because lying about and hiding negative news from non-Leftist viewers also bamboozled their own partisans.
    Alternative news sites and media platforms will overtake the present Titans- it's already begun actually.
    And will immediately trigger a complete overhaul of elections.
    And we may see a split into multiple parties.

    As soon as recounts are posted, even if not official, I'll post criminal details. You probably won't believe them, they're too ridiculous even for a B Hollywood script. The Dems were so brazen & over the top, with many scatterbrained... plus no one really in total control, otherwise we never find out. Ditto if any other Repub was President- would've conceded \ folded over like a cheap suit. Ditto also with a less popular President, and this last was the main trigger- surmounting deficits of millions of votes was just too much to surreptitiously pull off.
    Repubs just dodged a bullet of never again winning office or Congressional majority.
    Bwahaha everything you say here is incorrect. You are a true moron of the highest order.
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  22. #22
    StackinGreen
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    No

    You are the moron.

  23. #23
    jim
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    Quote Originally Posted by robbypark View Post
    Bwahaha everything you say here is incorrect. You are a true moron of the highest order.

    criticism comes easier than craftsmanship.

  24. #24
    Optional
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    LOL guys... easy way to get over this problem


    He is +130 to NOT Concede right now.

    Just load up on that if you think he is so anti-American and cares so little for the stability of government or the good of the people that he will NEVER do the right thing by the country and give in even if the legal process is exhausted and Biden remains the official winner.


    @acquavallo Excuse me for thinking he is not that much of a reckless America hating asshole that he would keep trying to undermine government even once his legal appeals are done.

    Surely -133 that he isn't really that narcissistic and immature by me isn't that bad of a bet is it?

    You sound very positive that you know he will never do the right thing no matter what though... so get some of that +130 I guess?!

    Post your ticket and show us your money is where you mouth is ;-))
    Last edited by Optional; 11-14-20 at 02:21 AM.

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  25. #25
    TheGuesser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    LOL guys... easy way to get over this problem


    He is +130 to NOT Concede right now.

    Just load up on that if you think he is so anti-American and cares so little for the stability of government or the good of the people that he will NEVER do the right thing by the country and give in even if the legal process is exhausted and Biden remains the official winner.


    @acquavallo Excuse me for thinking he is not that much of a reckless America hating asshole that he would keep trying to undermine government even once his legal appeals are done.

    Surely -133 that he isn't really that narcissistic and immature by me isn't that bad of a bet is it?

    You sound very positive that you know he will never do the right thing no matter what though... so get some of that +130 I guess?!

    Post your ticket and show us your money is where you mouth is ;-))
    Again, depends on the wording. If a US facing book had those odds, and it was worded CLEARLY, I'd bet the no hard. He will not ever utter the words "I lost" or "I concede", clearly and unambiguously.

  26. #26
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheGuesser View Post

    Again, depends on the wording. If a US facing book had those odds, and it was worded CLEARLY, I'd bet the no hard. He will not ever utter the words "I lost" or "I concede", clearly and unambiguously.
    For the purpose of this conversation, let's just say Concede means he agrees to allow the Biden administration to start taking over power.


    Do you believe if the courts do not rule for him and there is no more legal route to challenge the election, that Trump will still try and refuse to allow the transfer to take place?

    My innocent comment about the -125 YES, was simply based on thinking he would respect the law once the law was done reviewing.


    Not a political comment. About betting odds. And just not seeing an alternative if the court challenges fail.

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  27. #27
    Optional
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    Here is the Smarkets rules for that market;


    "This market concerns whether President Donald Trump publicly concedes if he loses the 2020 US presidential election.

    This market will be settled for yes if, at any point between 3 November 2020 and 20 January 2021 (inclusive), Donald Trump concedes that he has lost the 2020 US presidential election and/or acknowledges that he will not be president on 21 January 2021. His concession must be in a public setting (e.g. through a tweet or in a press conference). The concession must come from Donald Trump himself or through an official statement issued in his name.

    The market will be settled based on Trump's first concession only. If he reneges on any concession, this market will not be resettled.

    If Donald Trump wins re-election, this market will be void.
    If the next US presidential election does not take place in 2020, this market will be void.
    If Donald Trump does not go into the 2020 US presidential election as the Republican nominee, this market will be void."

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  28. #28
    DontTailMe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    For the purpose of this conversation, let's just say Concede means he agrees to allow the Biden administration to start taking over power.


    Do you believe if the courts do not rule for him and there is no more legal route to challenge the election, that Trump will still try and refuse to allow the transfer to take place?

    My innocent comment about the -125 YES, was simply based on thinking he would respect the law once the law was done reviewing.


    Not a political comment. About betting odds. And just not seeing an alternative if the court challenges fail.
    I think the problem is that most people don’t share your definition of “concede”, at least when it comes to bets like this. To me, conceding involves saying that you have lost.

    Sure, under your definition, he will absolutely concede eventually. He will be forced to leave the WH. If I were confident that’s what a sportsbook meant, I would hammer Yes alongside you,

    But most sportsbooks which have had more detailed language around these “concede” props require Trump/Biden to say unequivocally that they lost, Trump is never going to do that. He’s going to keep his base of supporters riled up so that he has leverage over the Republican Party and an audience for his future endeavors (media empire?). He doesn’t care what harm that brings to the country,
    Last edited by DontTailMe; 11-14-20 at 01:50 PM.

  29. #29
    HeeeHAWWWW
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    Yep, Trump will likely never say he lost. He's already planning 2024, if he can evade the incoming legal troubles.

  30. #30
    StackinGreen
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    Yes, if it comes to that.

  31. #31
    Ruifgalmeida
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    Trump Will never concede, I would go allin on the No

  32. #32
    ParlayTeaser
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeeHAWWWW View Post
    Yep, Trump will likely never say he lost. He's already planning 2024, if he can evade the incoming legal troubles.
    Naw, his ass is grass as soon as he leaves office. Lawsuits and charges await. This is why he's pulling his last great con by collecting money from gullible dopes on the way out.

  33. #33
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by ParlayTeaser View Post

    Naw, his ass is grass as soon as he leaves office. Lawsuits and charges await. This is why he's pulling his last great con by collecting money from gullible dopes on the way out.
    Wasn't that supposed to happen to Obama and both Clintons?

    Presidents don't appear to be ever held accountable. Even if charged they just get a pardon anyway.


    Probably how it should be in most cases though.

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  34. #34
    TheGuesser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Here is the Smarkets rules for that market;


    "This market concerns whether President Donald Trump publicly concedes if he loses the 2020 US presidential election.

    This market will be settled for yes if, at any point between 3 November 2020 and 20 January 2021 (inclusive), Donald Trump concedes that he has lost the 2020 US presidential election and/or acknowledges that he will not be president on 21 January 2021. His concession must be in a public setting (e.g. through a tweet or in a press conference). The concession must come from Donald Trump himself or through an official statement issued in his name.

    The market will be settled based on Trump's first concession only. If he reneges on any concession, this market will not be resettled.

    If Donald Trump wins re-election, this market will be void.
    If the next US presidential election does not take place in 2020, this market will be void.
    If Donald Trump does not go into the 2020 US presidential election as the Republican nominee, this market will be void."
    That's an EASY No. If they are still offering it.

  35. #35
    acquavallo
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    Hey Opti, cut me some slack- I'm a John Anderson disciple.
    Mine was also an innocent opinion agreeing with you, if only in part.
    Trump doesn't concede because he won't lose. Starting separate thread divulging the whole shebang.
    And why should i tie up money for possibly two months at such low odds? That's cruel.

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