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Well I just placed a small wager on one of your WNBA lines to then discover that the commission on them is 2% instead of the normal 0.25%. I'm sure that's probably due to them being in the "news" section. Just an FYI for you. That won't work for any serious bettor. I'm sure you can fix it in the future. Congrats for what you've accomplished.
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Nice Job...Fairlay is such a great site! Has a great following and so cool let's players do this...Originally Posted by danshan11
they are in the sports section category basketball subcategory WNBA not in news and your commission should not be 2%, where did you see that can you screenshot it so I can take a look at it please
https://fairlay.com/account/ go to that link and go down the page till you get to where it says your current commission is X.XX% per settlement
https://fairlay.com/market/601-atlanta-602-washington/
Anybody that's been playing at fairlay for over a week or two starts getting a reduction in their commission. However on your markets the reduction is from 2% not a reduction from 0.25% so I'm actually paying 1.083% instead of my normal 0.1354% You can view the commission on any order by clicking to the left on the match and viewing the order in a more detailed view. BTW.......i'm only trying to help.
no its very much appreciated, if you could screenshot what you are seeing so I can try and fix it, I will do it right away!
Commission
1.6245% (down from 2.0%)
that is what i see on the listing specifically
and on other games I see this
Commission
0.2031% (down from 0.25%)
is it something I control do you know? can I change it, I dont see the option in the api??? very confused and thank you for pointing it out
I figured it out, there is a 2% default in the script, so what I did is I moved it to .0025 instead of .02, thanks for noticing that much appreciated.
thanks again I will send you betpoints to cover the fee difference once it settles, sorry about that and I am correcting the script now!
It's a 1 mbtc wager and I'm not EVEN going to do the math. What I mean is....don't worry about it. Probably not even a penny. Maybe I'll loose and there won't be a commission LOL. I just wanted to provide some feedback to you and I knew you would correct it. I started to learn how to use API but have never got around to it yet. I did go to github training and took a gander at, it, maybe in time. Do you have to purchase additional software for your computer? Glad to see your progress, i've been following it somewhat on here. Keep up the good work!
No software I created a google script in google sheets and create the market via a google script that sends to a server and submits.
you think there is enough traffic to even be worth it?
I put in a shit ton of btc and have been funding the bets too taking sides at -108 -108, I will probably do the same thing for baseball next, I was going to try and put up tomorrows baseball lines today before noon so I beat BOL out as the first one with baseball lines everyday. Problem with baseball is lots of movement so I will need to watch it close or tie it to a pinny api so it adjusts accordingly but I dont just want commission for making lines, I want to fund them too, to a certain point. I do some shit better than others there, A first one out with lines B I will squeeze the juice as tight as pinny C I use more details better looking listings with rotation number and clear good details. I was also thinking about trying to price out some teasers so I can margin them, like on big moneylines doing a -2.5 run line something like that.
Last edited by danshan11; 08-30-18 at 09:54 AM.
I would say definitely go for it man. A 16 cent line is competitive with most other books. As far as moving the line with pinnacle just remember they have money coming in that is stacking up on one side so they move the line. But YOU may not have money stacking up on that same side. I would suggest concentrating on football though.....lots more action there. I think the best thing is you don't have to pick'em......let someone else pick'em. I've heard it said that even if the book put out both sides at even money the gamblers would still find a way to loose. Of course that applies more to the local "street bookies" . Players online are probably a little more sharp than ole Joe from the pool hall.
my WNBA lines have not got much action, I hope it picks up tomorrow once the games get closer and the few college football lines I did, I did really well fast, made about .015ish per game in commissions and juice. volume was definitely higher, the NFL lines I put up got zero action, cause I was pushing moneylines so I did not have to worry about line moves so much. I am thinking of how to logistically set it up. I think the profit potential is there
action was dead never got many bets at all, I think A it is wnba and B my lines were garbage.
I was way off on every single line ironically my worst week on lines but it is what it is!
I was 2 points off currently on the sides
I was 3 points off currently on each total
that is garbage play, you will get destroyed that far off, I will try again to be better next time!
Last edited by danshan11; 08-31-18 at 03:10 PM.
did MLB CFL and NFL over the weekend and even when I adjusted the price a hair prettier than pinny no action, fairlay only has action from 1 person the person setting lines and waiting to cash out at pinny prices, big waste of time, if you want to deal with 100-200 dollar 100 bets a day making .3% line value working 20 hours a day it could make you lord knows what maybe 30,000 USD a year
I took 190 bets at 100 dollars in about 30ish hours of being online averaged about 1.35% on MLB so subtract say 1% for margin about .35% profit and volume was maybe 20k total, LOL that wont get it done but I did like the spreading out the cash instead of my normal big money on 4 bets it was nice to spread that out over 200 bets but not enough cash in anyway shape or form, FYI I went balls deep, I could have took 2-5k a bet on each open line and it never got picked up and of course I had the best price, biggest bet over the whole period was 1300 dollars ONE TIME.
although it was pretty easy to double dip a line and bet the other side example
bet 150 bucks on montreal at +13 via feed +150
so bet 150 bucks on opponent at -13 via direct for +108
here is a little sample it was very cool but not worth it fairlay just does not have enough action, the volume is too low, I was surprised how many mlb or nfl games HAD NO ACTION
Wow. You have done very well here!
Maybe try asking Fairlay if they will promote your markets a little, or send out an email blast letting people know super early opinionated lines are available?
If only you could get access to Betfair to go further with it.
It might be worth contacting Smarkets and seeing if they have a way to work with you. The owner makes himself available. Be worth trying to contact him directly. If it could work I am sure they would love to have an independent market maker operating there.
I think you missed the part where it works very well for maybe 30k a year, that is just not enough money for me to be putting that kind of effort in and a huge amount of stake money for very little profit. I truly did enjoy the idea of having so many games per day going though all with positive EV, seems like it would rough out the dry patches a ton better.
I checked smarkets they so far since lines came out have traded 23 euros on the biggest mlb game today!
I read it all. Inc the 30k bit.
That's why I was thinking Smarkets or Matchbook to try it with better volume. Although even Betfair is light on activity before markets mature.
People aren't used to going to the exchanges looking for early odds I think. So it might take time to build up regulars.
If you are serious about trying to continue, it might be worth buying a shelf company in UK to work from. 2 or 3 thousand at a guess plus whatever an accountant/solicitor charges to be your registered agent.
yeah there is just not enough volume on the exchanges, nobody is going to an exchange to bet, they are going to exchange trying to beat the line, you get very few bettors, its all just money sitting there hoping some schmuck comes along and thinks he knows more about the bears game than the entire world? LOL, it could be cool but not enough volume. I will never take a favorite anywhere else again though that is for sure
Have you considered putting together a standalone "earliest odds" website/app?
Just a simple one page list of all your markets each day.
I could see twitter/facebook marketing working for something like that and not only generate betting activity but referral income as well.
i think those are good ideas BUT I think they are low income generators, I am betting bigger amounts than that on my own in volume.
http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/ita...umit-YLQEuTcm/
you can see here, I bet the underdog +180 for a ton and they are sitting at +130 everywhere and 1x has it at +173, so I am wondering what that is about seems extreme, not sure what is a "fair line" for this match?
I bet at +180 and to me it seems like a great bet but at 1x its +170 but nowhere else. any idea?
I dont really bet tennis but the odds here presented what I thought was a big opening but 1x makes me doubt that, not sure who is sharp here but if pinnacle is sharp on this, I am killing it with the exchange on these matches
so I guess the question is , who is sharp on tennis, which book has the sharpest lines because there are huge differences between book A and B its crazy, the gaps
I used to be a big tennis bettor but got too busy with other things to continue the way I was. I find it turns into a full time job following so many players and fitness levels, motivations, surfaces etc. Just saying that as I am not current on players.
But a few things;
Don't bother with chasing the best odds at 1xbet/22bet as they will punish you for it if that is all you do there. They want to rope you in with those great odds but if you don't then bet enough -EV action, you will be called an arber or KYCed into submission. Basically ignore them when assessing the market I think.
In fact any book way off market on these is probably either slow, and will be pissed if you take advantage of them, or like 1xbet and baiting you.
Second thing is, you will never be able to get big money down consistently on Challenger/Futures/ITF level tennis matches. You'll be limited or booted from any Euro licensed book and US facing books mostly have ~$50 limits. (maybe Fairlay is better?)
Another annoying issue with lower level tennis is that it is the most rigged major sport there is. Many many complaints come into SBR about their stake+winnings being suspended pending an investigation of a match. And they often take a year or more to be resolved.
I am not trying to arb tennis, I am trying to find what the value of the line is, I am only talking about the exchange here, I am trying to figure out who is sharp, which book has sharp lines
If I bet Nadal -150 what books line would I use to see if that was a smart play or not, I mean they all vary so much, who is the sharp book for tennis, who is closest to the actual implied?
In major tournies like the US Open I think the lines are closer to reality but I never based too much on them really. I think tennis is a bigger proportion public action than most sports. I guess Pinny lines are the best guide as usual, but even there I imagine it's swayed by action more than reality when it comes to tennis.
Good question for the tennis sub forum probably.
thanks for the replies
For tennis I suggest converting each of the major markets’, including exchanges, no vig line into a win percentage then taking the average percentage. Compare that to your ml converted to percentage to determine Ev.
danshan11 gave Yjacket22`` 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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