[mathdotcom]

i.e. Letting a guy hit confirm on a big play, tell him the line changed, then move it the way the guy bet.

Free info without getting hit on the original number

[durito]

drinking tonight?

[JohnGalt2341]

I've always wondered about this myself with all the books. It seems like a line moves against me around 80 to 90% of the time when it changes.

[darkhat]

I've always thought this as well. It always happens to me.

[d2bets]

Books do this all the time, but why single out Pinnacle? Have they changed their confirmation process?

[durito]

lot of people drinking tonight

[jjgold]

I doubt it

Why any book limits players is beyond belief, most winners lose it back

Mnay books have no money because they do not take big action

[InTheDrink]

I've always wondered about this myself with all the books. It seems like a line moves against me around 80 to 90% of the time when it changes.

the line moves because there's more play on that team so it stands to reason it would move against you more often

[Ace_of_Spades]

What an idiot. Does Mathy ever post like an educated person.

[flyingillini]

When will the Judge be releasing Mike Betfirstclass?

[Romanov]

Here is how you can fight this:

Bet the max on the side you don't like
Let Pinny reject the bet and move the line like they always do for you (in your favor this time)
Change your bet to the more favorable number on your favored side

Profit if what you are saying is true

[mathdotcom]

What an idiot. Does Mathy ever post like an educated person.

What do you have to say on the topic?

[mathdotcom]

I've always wondered about this myself with all the books. It seems like a line moves against me around 80 to 90% of the time when it changes.

Moves my way even less

Books that have long delays are surely doing it, but it is usually to mitigate against steam not guys betting openers

durito just a steam chaser, would not understand

[MonkeyF0cker]

Too easy to manipulate that way.

Especially openers.

[mathdotcom]

Too easy to manipulate that way.

Especially openers.

Of course they can't do it 100% of the time

But if they do it 1 in 10 times then 90% of the time your bet on the wrong side is accepted and you've outsmarted yourself.

[mathdotcom]

I would say 80% of the time it says line has changed after I've hit confirm, only 20% before confirm stage.

You'd expect more after hitting confirm anyways just because that means there's more time for the line to have moved, but I don't know the last time I hit confirm and was told the line moved in my favor. Of course they just accept those instead of giving you the better line.

[MonkeyF0cker]

They're still moving the line though. Right?

You pop the side you want everywhere that follows right afterward. Then get out of your bet at Pinny.

Extra edge at a bunch of other shops for the price of vig/half point/whatever.

[MonkeyF0cker]

And then they give you a free one on top of it which could pay for all of the others...

[smoke a bowl]

i.e. Letting a guy hit confirm on a big play, tell him the line changed, then move it the way the guy bet.

Free info without getting hit on the original number

They don't do that though a lot of other scum bucket 2 cent shops do.

[smoke a bowl]

I've always wondered about this myself with all the books. It seems like a line moves against me around 80 to 90% of the time when it changes.

That's a good thing. If more of them moved to make the line better for you it would mean your bets are shit.

[smoke a bowl]

I would say 80% of the time it says line has changed after I've hit confirm, only 20% before confirm stage.

You'd expect more after hitting confirm anyways just because that means there's more time for the line to have moved, but I don't know the last time I hit confirm and was told the line moved in my favor. Of course they just accept those instead of giving you the better line.

Stop chasing steam Mathy. This is false. Though it is rare it does happen where I go to fire a bet that actual moves against me and Pinny grants me the new price. Obviously 98+% of the time a line moves it moves the way I was betting but that's the way it is suppose to be if you are making good bets.

[jstblaze]

What about when you go to hit confirm, the line moves half a point against you as always.

Then you immediately log back in to lines and it is back to where you originally picked it.

This happens way too much for it to be coincidence.

[smoke a bowl]

What about when you go to hit confirm, the line moves half a point against you as always.

Then you immediately log back in to lines and it is back to where you originally picked it.

This happens way too much for it to be coincidence.

At Pinny?

[Bluehorseshoe]

They don't do that though a lot of other scum bucket 2 cent shops do.

Especially close to game time and you put in a big bet. A few PPH's are geared to do it. You're better off calling it in with them.

[erickvivar]

It is a common practice among books, and not only for Pinny. Their software gives them the ability to see what is coming and move accordingly.

[Jaug]

Its about integrity. If players found out it would be a major scandal.

Secondly you would need an advanced system to do this.. would it show exactly the same to player but then confirm =line changed. I just dont see how you do this. The player could have two screens and refresh lines to see if this is happening.

[mathdotcom]

They're still moving the line though. Right?

You pop the side you want everywhere that follows right afterward. Then get out of your bet at Pinny.

Extra edge at a bunch of other shops for the price of vig/half point/whatever.

Let's take NBA 2h totals as an example.

Suppose they open 95 -105/-105. For simplicity assume other books are 95 -110/-110 and not posting a different total.

Now, if I want the under I can try to get them to move the line in my favor by popping the over. Max bet there is $5000 for a regular account (Yes, guys, not everyone has the same limits despite what they claim in Loshak's crappy interview videos). Then the line moves to O95 -110, U95 +100. The best I can hope for is another book to overreact and move to 95.5 -110/-110, and is indeed fairly likely. I hit the U95.5 -110 which has higher EV than the U95 -105 opener at Pinnacle. But I'm still stuck with O95 -105 and getting 5k of U95 +100 should not compensate. This whole dance got me U95.5 -110 at 3 cents better than U95 -105 but I gave up 5cents at Pinnacle. I'm guessing this doesn't do better than just hitting the opener of U95 -105 straight away.

Plus a lot of things can go wrong. As soon as Pinn moves to O95 -110, U95 +100, another guy might pound the under and the line immediately goes back to -105/-105.

If we're dealing with something like MLB openers, it could work if you get all the other books moving on air, but I feel for 2H markets they can more easily get away with it because everyone knows the line moves a lot. Though sometimes the line won't move for 5 minutes and then I'll go to bet it and all of a sudden there's a line change? Hmm..

[mathdotcom]

Stop chasing steam Mathy. This is false. Though it is rare it does happen where I go to fire a bet that actual moves against me and Pinny grants me the new price. Obviously 98+% of the time a line moves it moves the way I was betting but that's the way it is suppose to be if you are making good bets.

There are still times it moves against you. You take pk +100 for the max, then go back to the screen and it's pk +102. Wtf?

My original post has nothing to do with steam chasing.
1. You get labeled as a scalper by Pinn and they don't respect your bet on Team A + 109 because they know you just bet Team B -110 elsewhere
2. When the line creeps up to +109, it is more likely to fall back down than to keep going up so you should expect when you hit +109 that if the line moves it moves against you.

We've all seen Pinn announce a line change in our favor, but the ratios of in favor vs. against do not add up.

[SportsMushroom]

been wagering with pinnacle for a while, never noticed what you are saying

always bet openers like you said you do, rarely would there be a line change during the confirmation stage, maybe happened 5-6 times, and some of those times it was in my favour


also, if you are talking about betting second half lines then of coarse you are going to get line changes during confirmation, 2nd half lines are open only for 10 minutes or so, at that point everybody is pounding them and the line literally shifts every second

also your premise about pinnacle targeting scalpers is probably wrong, the pinnacle business model probably relies a great deal on scalpers, while other books try to beat the player, which is why they want to deal juiced lines and boot winners, pinnacle is not a bookmaker, they are a trader, they will try to get as much action as they can on both sides, be it from recreational gamblers, professionals or scalpers, and profit from the hold

[smoke a bowl]

There are still times it moves against you. You take pk +100 for the max, then go back to the screen and it's pk +102. Wtf?

My original post has nothing to do with steam chasing.
1. You get labeled as a scalper by Pinn and they don't respect your bet on Team A + 109 because they know you just bet Team B -110 elsewhere
2. When the line creeps up to +109, it is more likely to fall back down than to keep going up so you should expect when you hit +109 that if the line moves it moves against you.

We've all seen Pinn announce a line change in our favor, but the ratios of in favor vs. against do not add up.

It's pretty logical that this is the case Mathy. Especially the 2h market. 90% of the bettors capable of moving these 2h# are on the same side (especially totals)so it only makes sense that they will move the way you are trying to bet them. I'm sure you've beaten me to some of those #s and I'm sure I've beaten you to some of those #s. I am 100% that they are not moving #s because an account they labeled sharp tried to make a bet. They move the number once it is bet. I'm not saying they don't manually move the # from time to time but it isn't by stealing info from a sharp account w/o taking the bet 1st. It's a rat race to the # and whoever hits submit 1st gets it. gl and good gambling Math.

[mathdotcom]

been wagering with pinnacle for a while, never noticed what you are saying

always bet openers like you said you do, rarely would there be a line change during the confirmation stage, maybe happened 5-6 times, and some of those times it was in my favour


also, if you are talking about betting second half lines then of coarse you are going to get line changes during confirmation, 2nd half lines are open only for 10 minutes or so, at that point everybody is pounding them and the line literally shifts every second

also your premise about pinnacle targeting scalpers is probably wrong, the pinnacle business model probably relies a great deal on scalpers, while other books try to beat the player, which is why they want to deal juiced lines and boot winners, pinnacle is not a bookmaker, they are a trader, they will try to get as much action as they can on both sides, be it from recreational gamblers, professionals or scalpers, and profit from the hold

For your first part: you are correct it should happen less often with let's say MLB openers, which would make it harder for them to honestly claim that the line moved. Everyone knows 2H lines are more volatile but this also gives them more cover.

I didn't mean targeting, I just mean labeling. When the same guy logs on every day and pounds openers and beats the closing line, they're going to respect his action a lot more than a guy who always bets +107, +108 right after a sharp guy pounds a line that hasn't moved in a while.

I know a few guys who have been career scalpers for almost a decade and they have higher Pinnacle limits than are standard. And it makes sense. Their action constantly fades sharp action. How can you not love those guys? Another example: if you open a new account and hit a Pinn prop for the max, it will move a certain number of cents. These career scalpers with higher limits can hit the same prop for a higher max and it will move less. This is blatant evidence they respect their action less, and for good reason.

[mathdotcom]

[/color]
It's pretty logical that this is the case Mathy. Especially the 2h market. 90% of the bettors capable of moving these 2h# are on the same side (especially totals)so it only makes sense that they will move the way you are trying to bet them. I'm sure you've beaten me to some of those #s and I'm sure I've beaten you to some of those #s. I am 100% that they are not moving #s because an account they labeled sharp tried to make a bet. They move the number once it is bet. I'm not saying they don't manually move the # from time to time but it isn't by stealing info from a sharp account w/o taking the bet 1st. It's a rat race to the # and whoever hits submit 1st gets it. gl and good gambling Math.

I don't have much evidence that they are doing anything dishonest, I am just asking a Q along the lines of how do we know they're not doing this?

When there is a juicy opener, I know other guys are gonna be on it ASAP and when it moves against me I am not banging my desk crying foul. It makes sense and I expect it. But steam doesn't always go my way, and the example I gave of hitting pk +100 for a large amount and then the line is +102 makes me scratch my head and wonder.

[smoke a bowl]

I don't have much evidence that they are doing anything dishonest, I am just asking a Q along the lines of how do we know they're not doing this?

When there is a juicy opener, I know other guys are gonna be on it ASAP and when it moves against me I am not banging my desk crying foul. It makes sense and I expect it. But steam doesn't always go my way, and the example I gave of hitting pk +100 for a large amount and then the line is +102 makes me scratch my head and wonder.

I think the answer to that is an account that Pinny respects a touch more than yours got hit the opposite way within a second or 2 after you bet it. I also think that during those 2h's they take so much action in the 1st couple of minutes that the software misses a bet here and there (as far as moving lines of the bet goes) therefore you see some movement that looks a little awkward however this is merely speculation on my part.

[mathdotcom]

Everything I've observed while betting at Pinnacle can be justified, as people on here have done.

However the hypothesis that they are being shady has not been refuted either (in my opinion).

[smoke a bowl]

Everything I've observed while betting at Pinnacle can be justified, as people on here have done.

However the hypothesis that they are being shady has not been refuted either (in my opinion).

Theoretically, sure. However I would like to believe that with the 10s of thousands of bets that I have made into Pinny that I would know if I was getting cheat-moved if you will. I've picked up on dozens of other sites that weren't worth betting at because all they would do is steal the info and not give you the bet. If Pinny is doing it they are disguising ultra well.