One of the problems with chasing steam for the rec better is you don't know if it's a legit position, or a "buy back" opportunity for the big hitters. If the early steam money comes in and moves a line 1.5 points higher on the favorite, the syndicate can "buy back" and take a bigger position on the dog. So it may look like the favorite was the steam play, when in reality it's the dog they like.