1. #36
    subs
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    that's true with a sample of 1 but how about 1000 for example?

    if pinny has the right price and the bonus book has the soft side who r u going to beat long term?

  2. #37
    Hareeba!
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    Quote Originally Posted by subs View Post
    that's true with a sample of 1 but how about 1000 for example?

    if pinny has the right price and the bonus book has the soft side who r u going to beat long term?
    my sample is far greater than 1

    it doesn't really matter if one of them comes home as I'd just go again until it loses

  3. #38
    austin
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hareeba! View Post
    my sample is far greater than 1

    it doesn't really matter if one of them comes home as I'd just go again until it loses
    so why don't you just lay at high odds. free muniizzzzzzzzzzz all the way

  4. #39
    Inkwell77
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    The industry would be much better if they got rid of everything "bonus" related. When was the last time you saw a trading site like "etrade" or whatever offering bonuses? Vegas books offering a "bonus?"
    Put up a line and let people bet into that line. Move the line enough so you will get action on the other side if you need/want to balance out your action. If you have the best odds or the best line you will get action.
    Not that difficult of a concept.
    This is a profitable business model. History has shown it to be.

  5. #40
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hareeba! View Post
    Don't know why you'd think that.

    I certainly don't claim to be a bonus whore but whenever I've had free plays I've always managed to lose them at the bonus book and pick them up at Betfair by backing/laying longshots.
    you can't be real

  6. #41
    mathdotcom
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hareeba! View Post
    Don't know why you'd think that.

    I certainly don't claim to be a bonus whore but whenever I've had free plays I've always managed to lose them at the bonus book and pick them up at Betfair by backing/laying longshots.
    You might be the biggest idiot ever to post on SBR

  7. #42
    pjesnik24
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    why even lay the bets when you know where you will win it?

  8. #43
    Santo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hareeba! View Post

    my sample is far greater than 1

    it doesn't really matter if one of them comes home as I'd just go again until it loses
    C'mon Hareeba... this is martingale logic. You'll either hit a personal liquidity or bet limit issue at some stage.

  9. #44
    Hareeba!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Santo View Post
    C'mon Hareeba... this is martingale logic. You'll either hit a personal liquidity or bet limit issue at some stage.
    Of course it is true that it may require extra bets to overcome a bet limit at the bonus book or available liquidity at Betfair. It would be a nuisance and would delay the collect but simply enough overcome by taking extra bets.

  10. #45
    Kindred
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    Quote Originally Posted by Inkwell77 View Post
    The industry would be much better if they got rid of everything "bonus" related. When was the last time you saw a trading site like "etrade" or whatever offering bonuses? Vegas books offering a "bonus?"
    Put up a line and let people bet into that line. Move the line enough so you will get action on the other side if you need/want to balance out your action. If you have the best odds or the best line you will get action.
    Not that difficult of a concept.
    This is a profitable business model. History has shown it to be.
    Etrade offers commision free trades when you open an account with them, that's a bonus

    Bonuses are just like comps you get in the casino..and you morons want to get rid of them Yeah I hate free money

  11. #46
    Hareeba!
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    Quote Originally Posted by austin View Post
    so why don't you just lay at high odds. free muniizzzzzzzzzzz all the way
    I play these only to cash out the bonus quickly.

    There's never been any such thing as a certainty.

    Laying at high odds has never been and is never likely to be part of my value play strategy.

  12. #47
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hareeba! View Post
    I play these only to cash out the bonus quickly.

    There's never been any such thing as a certainty.

    Laying at high odds has never been and is never likely to be part of my value play strategy.
    Any reason for that?

  13. #48
    Santo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hareeba! View Post

    Of course it is true that it may require extra bets to overcome a bet limit at the bonus book or available liquidity at Betfair. It would be a nuisance and would delay the collect but simply enough overcome by taking extra bets.
    OK, but at some stage you've reached the rollover at the bonus-giving book. Now, unless your bets are actually arbitrage (I would often accept a small loss on bonus rollovers), each bet is -EV, so would you not withdrawal?

    By personal liquidity I meant that very quickly you can end up with a far-too-high % of your bankroll at the bonus book.

  14. #49
    Kindred
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ibrakadabra View Post
    I don´t even understand the term "bonus whore". Is that a person who doesn´t deposit unless he gets a bonus? Does that really justify the word "whore" in any sensible meaning or is it that it just sounds cool to use?

    Faking identity and using multiple accounts is something completely different, right?

    Way back when 100% cash bonuses were not uncommon, there were more sites and more competition to attract players. I believe the sportsbooks/casinos labeled the players who only played when they were offered a bonus, then went to the next shop to take their bonus and so on, bonus whores. Players then started using the term as a good thing.

    bonuswhores.com was one of the most popular poker portals until they changed the name in the past couple years. Poker bonuses used to be +EV paying more than you would rake..now they are just small rakeback percentage so being a poker bonus whore is no longer very profitable so they changed the name. The owners sold the site while they could get good money for it because of all the traffic it generated..and a year or so ago they changed the name because newer gamblers apparently aren't familiar with the term. The site sucks now, used to be the best reference to find out exactly how much a bonus was worth and how long it would take to clear.

    Quote Originally Posted by andywend View Post
    Kindred, bonus WHORES LIKE YOU result in books offering LOWER bonuses NOT higher.

    I just assume books stop offering bonuses all together and instead reward loyalty as that would get rid of fleas like you and all the other bonus whores out there.
    When did you start gambling, yesterday
    The books do reward loyalty with "RELOAD" bonuses and you can thank bonus whores like me for those bonuses, we respond to reload bonus offers which is why books offer them

  15. #50
    Kindred
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hareeba! View Post
    Of course it is true that it may require extra bets to overcome a bet limit at the bonus book or available liquidity at Betfair. It would be a nuisance and would delay the collect but simply enough overcome by taking extra bets.
    Usually the market or the sharp book you are hedging at is the sharper line, the bonus book the square line. So many times the best scalp opportunity has you taking the juicy line offered by the bonus shop and the sharp line at matchbook/betfair where you're getting a great price. So you end up losing at sharp book and winning at bonus book. That's been my experience trying to scalp out bonuses on matchbook, never seemed to go the way I wanted.
    If you figured a way to scalp bonuses awesome, just trying to explain why others may be skeptical..or at least why I don't bother trying to scalp.

    I'm not much of a bonus whore anymore anyway..not many books offering good bonuses that I would trust. But Bookmaker I'll take the freeplays ever time..Full Juice books shouldn't be able to get away with not offering a bonus

  16. #51
    mrmarket
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    sportsbook bonuses aren't what they once were but are still fine for part-timers/people growing roll
    casino bonuses are crap compared to what they were
    poker is still decent enough if you can get 3rd party rakeback on ipoker/whatever for like 60-75% and kickback industry is much more established. 100% easier through poker as beginner with low money.

  17. #52
    Hareeba!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Santo View Post
    OK, but at some stage you've reached the rollover at the bonus-giving book. Now, unless your bets are actually arbitrage (I would often accept a small loss on bonus rollovers), each bet is -EV, so would you not withdrawal?

    By personal liquidity I meant that very quickly you can end up with a far-too-high % of your bankroll at the bonus book.
    My aim is to lose the bonus (and any subsequent collects) at the bonus book and not have to go through the rollover requirements so wouldn't need to make a withdrawal. So far (and bear in mind I did say I don't go out of my way to get bonuses so haven't done a real lot of this) I've not had anything to withdraw from the bonus book - and that position too was where I came into this discussion.

  18. #53
    Hareeba!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kindred View Post
    Usually the market or the sharp book you are hedging at is the sharper line, the bonus book the square line. So many times the best scalp opportunity has you taking the juicy line offered by the bonus shop and the sharp line at matchbook/betfair where you're getting a great price. So you end up losing at sharp book and winning at bonus book. That's been my experience trying to scalp out bonuses on matchbook, never seemed to go the way I wanted.
    If you figured a way to scalp bonuses awesome, just trying to explain why others may be skeptical..or at least why I don't bother trying to scalp.

    I'm not much of a bonus whore anymore anyway..not many books offering good bonuses that I would trust. But Bookmaker I'll take the freeplays ever time..Full Juice books shouldn't be able to get away with not offering a bonus
    Mostly I choose a golf tournament winner market at around the 12/1 to 18/1 range.

  19. #54
    Santo
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    I can see where your position makes sense for Aussie books -- you certainly wouldn't have been wanting to do that in the early 2000's with some of the offshore operations around then! $200 at 15-1, win, a couple of baseball bets go the wrong way and you have 5 figures before you know it.

  20. #55
    Hareeba!
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    Any reason for that?
    My betting history has regularly shown that I make more profit when betting on 'dogs than on favourites , so clearly there's more value in that from my perspective.

    I try not to let emotion influence my punting but I do tend to get annoyed when I lose a bet at odds-on, therefore I'm also more comfortable with my strategy of avoiding them.

  21. #56
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hareeba! View Post
    My betting history has regularly shown that I make more profit when betting on 'dogs than on favourites , so clearly there's more value in that from my perspective.

    I try not to let emotion influence my punting but I do tend to get annoyed when I lose a bet at odds-on, therefore I'm also more comfortable with my strategy of avoiding them.
    If you rule out variance that would mean that it is your valuation of short priced favourites that is flawed. Can't think of any reason why that would be.

    As a rule when you have two bets with the same expected value, the one with the shorter odds is the better bet from the POV of maximising BR growth.

  22. #57
    Hareeba!
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    If you rule out variance that would mean that it is your valuation of short priced favourites that is flawed. Can't think of any reason why that would be.

    As a rule when you have two bets with the same expected value, the one with the shorter odds is the better bet from the POV of maximising BR growth.
    Yes, I accept the merit of both those conclusions.

    Nevertheless I find it just works better for me both mentally and financially to avoid betting at the pointy end.

    I know punters who specialise in backing only horses which they regard as near certainties at very skinny odds and they do okay. Just not my cup of tea.

  23. #58
    durito
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    yet you never losing backing favorites to arb out a bonus.

  24. #59
    Hareeba!
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    yet you never losing backing favorites to arb out a bonus.
    fear not, I'm sure it will happen one day, but bonuses don't seem to come my way very frequently these days so it will probably be while

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