[durito]

Hareeba utility: More Money < Less Money

[durito]

I wish you knew how close matchbook came to stiffing you and everyone else.

[BrickJames]

I wish you knew how close matchbook came to stiffing you and everyone else.

How close?

[Hareeba!]

How close?

as if he has any idea at all

[durito]

best price on nadal

pinny? nope, betfair? nope, matchbook no, sbo no, any euro book lol

must be one of those worthless us books

[Hareeba!]

best price on nadal

pinny? nope, betfair? nope, matchbook no, sbo no, any euro book lol

must be one of those worthless us books

what price ?
and how much can you get on for ?
I can get 1.43
not that I'd bet at those odds anyway

[evo34]

So there is no way to beat MLB sides? Market simply too efficient? I guess my long-term ROI on MLB sides is sheer variance.

Hareeba, You're out of your league here. The golden rule: the more you can bet at a number, the tougher that number is to beat. The smaller obscure books offer more EV (as a percentage of the bet) *because* the limits are lower. When limits get high, the sport's number becomes efficient, meaning unbeatable in the long run. I'd rather take $500 on an off-market number than $50000 at MB or Betfair with a 1-cent spread with no commission an hour before gametime. If you think the entire market is wrong on a liquid market (meaning 20k+ at a given bet), you're simply wrong. Betfair's liquidity makes it harder to beat. And if you haven't done your rounds with Bodog, or Betonline, or SIA, you're leaving money on the table.

[Hareeba!]

So there is no way to beat MLB sides? Market simply too efficient? I guess my long-term ROI on MLB sides is sheer variance.

mine's obviously just sheer luck because I'm too stupid to understand any of this

[Hareeba!]

Quote:
Originally Posted by durito
best price on nadal

pinny? nope, betfair? nope, matchbook no, sbo no, any euro book lol

must be one of those worthless us books

what price ?
and how much can you get on for ?
I can get 1.43
not that I'd bet at those odds anyway

1.45 now in Aus
Pinnacle 1.422
Matchbook 1.427

[donjuan]

Thanks but I'll stick with books I can trust Justin.
I've never lost a cent through a book's failure and don't intend to start now.

If you really make money gambling you are the biggest luckbox ever.

[tachi]

If you really make money gambling you are the biggest luckbox ever.

so using pointbet and bestake (a lot of +EV) is the way to make money from gambling?

is there some Kelly variation to calculate your stake by the risk of being robbed
by the bookmaker or disappearing of the bookie vs potential profits?

[Hareeba!]

If you really make money gambling you are the biggest luckbox ever.

I agree, but I don't regard what I do as gambling.
Gamblers rely on luck to win.
I rely on maths.

[donjuan]

I agree, but I don't regard what I do as gambling.
Gamblers rely on luck to win.
I rely on maths.

That's because you're a simpleton.

[Hareeba!]

That's because you're a simpleton.

thanks genius

btw, what do you do for a living? ... rocket scientist, brain surgeon ?

[donjuan]

Shocking that you haven't figured it out by now.

[Hareeba!]

Shocking that you haven't figured it out by now.

have you forgotten already?
I'm a simpleton

[Dr.Gonzo]

And if you haven't done your rounds with Bodog, or Betonline, or SIA, you're leaving money on the table.

We can't bet with the US Bodog. There is a shit Euro facing Bodog that is worthless available though.

[Thremp]

Why are mai posts being ignored?

[greenfieldtwo]

Thanks but I'll stick with books I can trust Justin. I've never lost a cent through a book's failure and don't intend to start now.

agreed.

[Thremp]

You do realize that neither Pinnacle nor MB fit the "Hareeba Rules" about separation of player funds? Its pure speculation on his part. Considering the doubletalk MB engages in and its lack of interest in paying US customers (See PS), I can't see why anyone would defend the "reputation" of this company other than "Mild interest in repaying players THEIR OWN ******* MONEY, no management history"

[diverron]

good thread.

[Thremp]

Always good for the lolz when Hareeba attempts to speculate on how professionals win money as opposed to his inane and basic level of trolling.

[patswin]

Hareeba,

You're out of your league here.

The golden rule: the more you can bet at a number, the tougher that number is to beat. The smaller obscure books offer more EV (as a percentage of the bet) *because* the limits are lower. When limits get high, the sport's number becomes efficient, meaning unbeatable in the long run.

I'd rather take $500 on an off-market number than $50000 at MB or Betfair with a 1-cent spread with no commission an hour before gametime. If you think the entire market is wrong on a liquid market (meaning 20k+ at a given bet), you're simply wrong. Betfair's liquidity makes it harder to beat.

And if you haven't done your rounds with Bodog, or Betonline, or SIA, you're leaving money on the table.

good post justin

[BrigadierPudding]

One of The Greek's overnights tonight was off market by 4-7 cents for a good 45 minutes. Made me think of this thread.