[warriorfan707]

Just watched the whole interview.
Its obvious, this guy is a cheater , why the hell is SBR dumping on easy street and killing their reputation all over this guy? Seriously, are you kidding me SBR, are you kidding me?

But i know everyone disagrees with me so i will just shut up.

[KGambler]

(and I do not mean a link to your stupid calculator that you do not know how to use).

Let's just bet on this part then. Are you saying that the binomial distribution calculator can not be used to solve this problem? Or are you saying that it can be, but I am using it wrong?

Help me out here.

I am a compulsive gambler and not at all afraid to make a bet I might lose. Let's do this.

[KGambler]

I can't show you the math, nor can I figure out how to use the binomial calcultor.

Let's just bet $500. You want to me to find an escrow we can both agree on? On Full Tilt Poker?

What is your estimate? You don't believe the 1 in 700 figure? What figure did you calculate?

[sharpcat]

Let's just bet on this part then. Are you saying that the binomial distribution calculator can not be used to solve this problem? Or are you saying that it can be, but I am using it wrong?

Help me out here.

I am a compulsive gambler and not at all afraid to make a bet I might lose. Let's do this.

Just answer the question. If you can?

You do not answer a question with a question

[KGambler]

I got the answer by using the binomial calculator.

Now which bet would you like to make?

Edit:
If you want, we can just bet betpoints. You don't care about points, remember? I am a small timer and love betpoints. I even play in Thad's SBR point book.

[sharpcat]

Your a waste of time.

[KGambler]

That makes sense. You say you have been waiting for me. Then you ask me where I got the calculation. And then you say it shouldn't be from my "stupid calculator" that I "don't know how to use". You don't give your own figure. You clearly have no clue how to do the calculation. You clearly have no clue how to use the binomial calculator. You won't provide your own calculation, although you seem to believe mine is wrong (it is not). But I am the one who is a waste of time, right?

I can solve the problem long hand or by using the binomial calculator. It is a hell of a lot easier to use the binomial calculator. That is what I did. The odds are less than 1 in 700.

Are you suggesting that is wrong? Come out and say it then, or stop wasting my time.

[secretstash]

Maybe this is laymans math... but lets just look at a few facts about royals.. odds of hitting 1 are 1 every 40K hands.

The correct number of hands he Played is 22K in total at EZ street. but we can use both 8K and 22K just for examples.

so if u can hit 1 royal in 40K hands.. hitting one in 8K hands is just a 1/5 chance... for every 5 times u play 8K hands u should Hit a royal once by law of statistics.

using that same figure of 1 in 40K... u should hit 3 royals in 40K x 3 = 120K hands. but he did it in 8K hands (really 22K).

so 1/5 X 1/5 X 1/5 = 1/125 u should hit 3 royals in 8K hands. so the odds are not very astronomical at all. even if my math is off.. u should know for a FACT that the 1 royal in 40K figure shouldnt make 1 in 8K unbelievable.. so why is 3 in 8K? (really 22K stated by WILHEIM)

-stash

[Fishhead]

KGAMBLER > SHARPCAT


WINNER


(By the way, Micheal Shackleford(Wizard of Odds) and Justin7(SBR resolution specialist) have both confirmed the slightly less than 1 in 700 figure of hitting 3 royals in approximently 9000 hands)


Have fun questioning or betting against these two on their math.

[jjgold]

Sounds like a scammer

His past history shows this

Definitely good move not paying him

I am not making a video supporting a fukkin scammer

NO VIDEO

[HedgeHog]

JJ's opinion seems to mirror SBR John's. Shocking.

[jjgold]

This player should be banned at every book

[Fishhead]

Numbnuts(jjgold), forget the player, handle the dispute at hand.

Use your brain


LOOK AT IT THIS WAY..............


Do you remember when you stole those cookies from Mrs. Harper when you were 9 years old..........you know, the woman with the wooden leg???

Then if you recall, when you were around 15, Mrs Harper's neighbor called you up to shovel her driveway and she said she would pay you $5, you agreed, and she not only paid you, she gave you a few of her freshly homemade baked granola chocolate chip cookies and you were very happy.

However, what if after cleaning her driveway she said, "listen to me you little fukin runt, I'm not paying you a cent because you stole cookies from my sister next door, Mrs Harper?

[KGambler]

To figure out the odds, you can use this forumla (first one on this page):

http://itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/...n3/eda366i.htm


The formula for the binomial probability mass function is

where

n = number of trials (number of hands played in this case)
p = probability of hitting a RF (.000025 is the estimate Shilheim's "expert" used, although it should be a touch lower)
x = exact number of successes

Solve for X = 0. This gives you the chance that no straight flushes are hit in n number of hands played.
Solve for X = 1. This gives you the chance that exactly 1 straight flushes are hit in n number of hands played
Solve for X = 2. This gives you the chance that exactly 2 straight flushes are hit in n number of hands played

Now you subtract these 3 answers from 1. This will give you the probabability that you hit 3 or more RFs in n number of hands, which is what we really want to know. If we wanted to know the probability of hitting exactly 3 (we don't, it's not relevant) than we would just solve for x = 3.

This is how I would solve the problem, although it is a lot easier to plug the numbers into this calculator and let a machine do it for you:

http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx

The only part remotely "difficult" would be if you don't know how to divide factorials.

Dullcat, let me know if you need help and I can hold your hand and walk you through it.

Michael Shackleford (WizardofOdds.com) does a similar example here:

http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard...obability.html

It's the question where the guy writing in says that his friend hit 2 RFs in one days and asks how likely that is. There's a typo where he calculates the probability of hitting 1 RF, but the answer is correct. You can verify, using the calculator that I linked, that all of the answers are the same as he shows for his chosen values.

[TexansFan]

Easystreet is a thief, plain and simple.

[sharpcat]

To figure out the odds, you can use this forumla (first one on this page):

http://itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/...n3/eda366i.htm


The formula for the binomial probability mass function is

where

n = number of trials (number of hands played in this case)
p = probability of hitting a RF (.000025 is the estimate Shilheim's "expert" used, although it should be a touch lower)
x = exact number of successes

Solve for X = 0. This gives you the chance that no straight flushes are hit in n number of hands played.
Solve for X = 1. This gives you the chance that exactly 1 straight flushes are hit in n number of hands played
Solve for X = 2. This gives you the chance that exactly 2 straight flushes are hit in n number of hands played

Now you subtract these 3 answers from 1. This will give you the probabability that you hit 3 or more RFs in n number of hands, which is what we really want to know. If we wanted to know the probability of hitting exactly 3 (we don't, it's not relevant) than we would just solve for x = 3.

This is how I would solve the problem, although it is a lot easier to plug the numbers into this calculator and let a machine do it for you:

http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx

The only part remotely "difficult" would be if you don't know how to divide factorials.

Dullcat, let me know if you need help and I can hold your hand and walk you through it.

Michael Shackleford (WizardofOdds.com) does a similar example here:

http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard...obability.html

It's the question where the guy writing in says that his friend hit 2 RFs in one days and asks how likely that is. There's a typo where he calculates the probability of hitting 1 RF, but the answer is correct. You can verify, using the calculator that I linked, that all of the answers are the same as he shows for his chosen values.

A simple question to show that you could figure this out on your own and it took you 7 hours to google this and copy and paste someone else's work I am impressed......lol.

Why not just use poisson? If you did not have a calculator it would be a lot easier especially considering that you rounded the figure off to 1 in 700.

[KGambler]

Please Dullcat... don't pretend you had any clue how to find the probability. You didn't believe the 1 in 700 figure. Now you suddenly knew all along, right? You said I that I didn't know how to use that "stupid calculator", right? I guess it turns out that you were wrong. I did know how to use it.

I didn't have to google anything and it didn't take me 7 hours. I was hoping you would have the balls to bet me. I thought you had your own (erroneous) calculations. It turns out you didn't even know where to begin.

Finally, I did not round off to 1 in 700. I stated the exact number (off of memory I think it was 1 in 676) when I first linked that "stupid calculator" that you (not me) don't know how to use.

Nice try though.

[CanuckG]

Numbnuts(jjgold), forget the player, handle the dispute at hand.

Use your brain


LOOK AT IT THIS WAY..............


Do you remember when you stole those cookies from Mrs. Harper when you were 9 years old..........you know, the woman with the wooden leg???

Then if you recall, when you were around 15, Mrs Harper's neighbor called you up to shovel her driveway and she said she would pay you $5, you agreed, and she not only paid you, she gave you a few of her freshly homemade baked granola chocolate chip cookies and you were very happy.

However, what if after cleaning her driveway she said, "listen to me you little fukin runt, I'm not paying you a cent because you stole cookies from my sister next door, Mrs Harper?

[soxwin1917]

Irrespective of the specific rights and wrongs, I didn't like this character from the off. Now, I like him a whole lot less. "Cory, if they paid you, would you 'correct your karma' and pay back the books you've screwed?" "No comment". No kidding. That was a toughie. What's a nice Irish lassie like that doing in Costa Rica?

BRILLIANT post. I haven't laughted that hard at a post in a while. Bravo

[xstud]

Clearly Cory is a crook. Unfortunately his actions have tarnished a great sportsbook.

[Optional]

Clearly Cory is a crook. Unfortunately his actions have tarnished a great sportsbook.

Get off the grass.

Clearly the book is crooked as they come.

Cory just happens to smell crooked too.

[Scooter]

Clearly Cory is a crook. Unfortunately his actions have tarnished a great sportsbook.

For those who have not been following these threads:
Xstud/steveX is aleX powers, EZ's manager.