[Puda]

18th Feb, Elimination Game:

vs

$1.53 - $3.65 - $6.50

Previous three meeting 2010/11:

0-1 Phoenix
2-1 Phoenix
3-0 Reds

Two weeks ago Phoenix knocked off the Reds at home.. No doubt the NZ team is a terrible at traveling, but I'm not convinced Adelaide are the real deal, they've hit a patch of poor form of late. Playing the UNDER or draw here maybe wise.


Sat 19 Feb, First Leg:

vs

$2.70 --- $3.65 ---$2.50

Previous three meeting 2010/11:

3-3 Draw
1-5 Roar
2-0 Roar

At $2.50 that's fabulous value for the Roar. Over looks like the smart play.



Sun, 20 Feb, Elimination Game:

vs

$2.50 - $3.20 - $2.70


Previous three meeting 2010/11:

2-0 Victory
0-1 Gold Coast
0-1 Victory

Gold Coast have hit a wall, with injuries and poor skills, they have been conceding alot. Whilst Victory have nearly a full squad to pick from, and with finals experience I can see them winning away from home.




WHAT ARE PEOPLE'S EARLY LEANS?

[Gracchus]

Order of early leans, without properly looking things over:
Victory
Roar
Reds (distant third)

[Puda]

Order of early leans, without properly looking things over:
Victory
Roar
Reds (distant third)

I tend to agree. The Roar and CC will be tough though. Both teams are in fine form, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Roar came away with the draw. Victory should win. And either the Reds will smash Phoenix or it will be one of those grinding games.

[Gracchus]

Any news on the Cold Coast vs Victory game?
Victory line has moved from 2.70 to 3.10

[Blue_Chips]

Do those games start tonight?

[Blue_Chips]

Nevermind. I see the schedule. Hey! How is the goalscoring in the playoffs?

[gotov]

Any news on the Cold Coast vs Victory game?
Victory line has moved from 2.70 to 3.10

Where did you find 3.10 ?
Most australian books have Victory 2.50-2.75

I like Victory, too much shit going on at GC atm

[Gracchus]

Where did you find 3.10 ? Most australian books have Victory 2.50-2.75 I like Victory, too much shit going on at GC atm

Bet 365

It opened at 2.70

[Puda]

Bet 365

It opened at 2.70

i only got 2.70.

news with the Reds, one of their regulars has been dumped after demanding a transfer.. I can see the Phoenix taking it to penalties or sneaking 0-1 win.

[Puda]

Explaining the finals system:
Week one features three games - the first leg of the major semi-final between the top two teams at the home of the second-placed team - and two elimination finals - third place host sixth place while fourth place have a home match against fifth place. The second leg of the major semi-final highlights week two as the minor premiers get to strut their stuff back on home territory. The aggregate winner not only qualifies for the grand final but also hosts the big game. Meanwhile, the winner of the two elimination finals from the previous weekend play in the qualifying final. Week three features just one game with the winner qualifying for the grand final on week four.


Who can win in week one?
Brisbane Roar may have taken all before them during the season but finals football is a different matter. Central Coast Mariners coach Graham Arnold is confident of making the most of home advantage in the first leg of the major semi-final and then defending it in Brisbane in week two. Melbourne Victory could unleash a star-studded attacking line and that spells trouble for Gold Coast. Adelaide have been a bit unpredictable of late but a home final against Wellington shouldn’t be too difficult to negotiate.

Whose likely to make a first round exit?
Wellington may have upset the odds to beat Adelaide two weeks ago but the home aside won't be fooled again. After looking safe bets for the top six for months, Gold Coast have limped into the finals series and will need to improve considerably if they are to hold out Melbourne Victory’s Archie Thompson, Robbie Kruse and co.

Finals odds
Brisbane Roar - $2.30
Central Coast Mariners - $2.75
Adelaide United - $6.50
Melbourne Victory - $8.50
Gold Coast United -$11
Wellington Phoenix - $26

Players to watch
Brisbane Roar: Thomas Broich - leads the statistical figures in many attacking categories and has an impact on the A-League beyond the wildest dreams of Ange Postecoglou and the Roar. The creative spark in an outstanding midfield, Broich can be expected to feed striker Jean Solarzano and Kosta with plenty of chances.

Central Coast – Adam Kwasnik – after letting the kids have all the fun in recent matches, coach Graham Arnold seems certain to revert to experience for the finals, and that means an important role for Adam Kwasnik. The 27-year-old has scored nine goals this season and forms a formidable frontline with Matt Simon that gives defenders plenty to think about.

Adelaide United – Travis Dodd - the captain hasn’t risen to the heights of previous campaigns and needs to step up if Adelaide are going to upstage the top two. He is the main link to top-scorer Sergio Van Dijk up front and at his best chips in with some crucial goals.

Gold Coast United – Shane Smeltz – while the team on the whole has struggled of late, striker Shane Smeltz continues to put away chances. But the A-League’s all-time top goalscorer needs a better supply from an underperforming midfield. If he gets that, then he single-handedly has the ability to keep Gold Coast afloat beyond the first week.

Melbourne Victory – Robbie Kruse - sounds as though Melbourne Victory are planning on some pretty entertaining finals football and that means a big role for Kruse. The Socceroos striker has a great goalscoring record this season and will prove a handful for opposition defences.

Wellington Phoenix - Dylan Macallister - Paul Ifill is back in the fold but Macallister has been one of the team's form players leading into the finals. The 28-year-old has never really fulfilled his potential but he has the potential to really unsettle opposition defences with his sheer bulk and sublime touch.

Paying the penalty
Penalty shootouts played a big part in deciding the qualifiers from last season’s week one of finals. The two elimination finals were decided by spot kicks as Newcastle Jets edged out Gold Coast United and Wellington Phoenix beat Perth Glory. Later, of course, the grand final also came to a shootout conclusion. The only other time penalties have come in to use was in the 2006-07 preliminary final when Adelaide United beat Newcastle 4-3 after a 1-1 draw. It didn't do Adelaide much good though as they were beaten 6-0 by Melbourne in the grand final.

Last season in week one
Melbourne Victory beat Sydney FC 2-1 in the first leg of the major semi-final at Etihad Stadium. Nik Mrdja opened the scoring for Victory on 16 minutes and Carlos Hernandez doubled the lead on 40 minutes. John Aloisi got one back for the visitors on 43 minutes and even though Mrdja was sent off late on, Victory held out. In the elimination finals, Newcastle and Gold Coast fought out 0-0 draw before the Jets won 6-5 on penalties while Wellington beat Perth 4-2 on penalties after 1-1 draw

How have minor premiers' gone in the finals series?
2009-10 - Sydney did the double. 2008-09 - Melbourne Victory did the double. 2007-08 - Mariners were minor premiers but Newcastle won grand final. 2006-07- Victory won the double. 2005-06 - Adelaide were minor premiers but didn't make final. Sydney FC won.

Did you know?
- The top three from this year finished in the bottom three positions last season - Adelaide were last, Brisbane were second from bottom and Central Coast were third from bottom
- Perth Glory players received 10 red cards this season and 73 yellow cards. Defender Brent Griffiths received six yellow and two red cards in just nine games.

Stats corner
- Brisbane have had 50 goal assists this season, while Melbourne Victory have only notched 32. Thomas Broich leads the individual goal assists with 12 with Josh Rose second with eight.
- Wellington forward Chris Greenacre has been caught offside 26 times this season.

[Puda]

So what are some thoughts on the first game tonight?

Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix, Friday, 8pm (EDT), Hindmarsh Stadium

Adelaide United: 1.Eugene Galekovic (Gk), 2.Robert Cornthwaite, 3.Nigel Boogaard, 6. Cassio, 7.Lucas Pantelis, 8.Adam Hughes, 9.Sergio Van Dijk, 10.Marcos Flores, 11.Andy Slory, 13.Travis Dodd (C), 14.Cameron Watson, 16.Dario Bodrusic, 17.Iain Ramsay, 19.Mathew Leckie, 20.Mark Birighitti (Gk), 21.Francisco Usucar

In: Cassio (returns from injury), Sergio Van Dijk (returns from injury)
Out: Paul Reid (omitted)
Unavailable: Daniel Mullen (Knee – Season), Joe Costa (Knee – Season), Joe Keenan (Leg – Season), Fabian Barbiero (Ankle – Season)

Wellington Phoenix: 2. Manny Muscat, 3. Tony Lochhead, 4. Nicky Ward, 6. Tim Brown, 8. Paul Ifill, 9, Chris Greenacre, 11. Daniel, 13. Troy Hearfield, 15. Jade North, 17. Vince Lia, 18. Ben Sigmund, 19, Danny Vukovic, 20, Reece Crowther, 21. Marco Rojas, 22. Andrew Durante (c), 23. Dylan Macallister

In: Paul Ifill (returning from injury), Vince Lia (returns from injury), Andrew Durante (returns from suspension).

Out: James Musa (omitted), Mirjan Pavlovic (omitted).

Unavailable: Mark Paston (Gk, Knee – Season), Leo Bertos (Injury), Oscar Roberto Cornejo (groin - 3 weeks).

some reviews:

The 2010-2011 A-League finals series gets underway at Hindmarsh Stadium on Friday night, when Adelaide host Wellington in a one-leg elimination match. The reds finished the regular-season in third place – three spots higher than the Phoenix, who only secured their playoff birth on the final day of round 27.
Adelaide go into the do-or-die clash following their moral boosting 2-1 win over arch-rivals Melbourne Victory last weekend, but their 1-0 loss to Wellington at Hindmarsh Stadium from a week earlier will still be fresh in their minds. The A-League’s leading goal scorer Sergio Van Dijk returns from a one-game absence – due to a corked thigh – and would love nothing more than to add to his season tally of 16 on the big stage.
Wellington have won three of their past four encounters heading into Friday’s game, and whilst the recent triumph over the reds was just their second win on the road this season, it will serve as an invaluable dose of confidence for Ricki Herbert’s side as they prepare for the all-important match. Captain Andrew Durante returns to the centre of defence following his two-game suspension, while star import Paul Ifill is set to make his long-awaited return from a leg injury.
This one will probably go down to the wire and is likely to be a tightly-played contest throughout. Back the under 2.5 goals for total goals scored, which is paying 1.85

[Ace_of_Spades]

Thats a dangerous game for the Roar.

[whitedogau]

Reds win in a canter IMO 2-0 or 3-0

[Puda]

Reds win in a canter IMO 2-0 or 3-0

think it will be much tighter 1-0, 0-1 or penalties !

Playing the under 2.5 @ 1.95. gl

[Gracchus]

Addelaide line has moved up to 1.775 on my book

I want to play Reds, but think i'll see how things go in the first 20 minutes and maybe live bet it.

[Gracchus]

Also, Victory line on Bet365 is back down to 2.85, glad I got in when I did.

[whitedogau]

raining in RAD-elaide...under might be the play

[Puda]

raining in RAD-elaide...under might be the play

Plays into the Phoenix hand.. they regularly play in similar weather.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Really boring game.

[Puda]

1:0 Reds. finally

[Puda]

1:0 FT.

UNDER WINS!

[Gracchus]

1:0 FT. UNDER WINS!

Congrats
was so tempted to take Reds at HT, but just had a nagging feeling it was going to be a 0-0 game

[alka07]

very close game wellinghton look very tired in the end

[whitedogau]

scoreline flatters adelaide, but a win is a win right?

[Slainte]

Great info Puda thank you very much mate

[Puda]

Some tips for tonight's game:

The top two teams get set to fight it out in a two-legged semi-final beginning on Saturday night.
Premiers’ Plate winners Brisbane Roar tuned up for their finals campaign with a devastating 4-0 win over Gold Coast United last weekend and should be primed for this but they have take on a Central Coast Mariners outfit who have not lost in their last nine outings.
Obviously it does not compare to the Roar’s unbeaten streak of 25 but it does show that they too are tough to defeat and will be well up for their home tie of this mini-series.
Graham Arnold may get back striker Matt Simon if he is fit enough after a knee injury whilst midfielder Rostyn Griffiths returns to add some depth to the line-up.
In the Roar camp, you wouldn’t have thought they could get any stronger but midfielder Massimo Murdocca and second top scorer Jean Carlos Solorzano are back in the squad which gives Ange Postecoglou plenty to work with and potentially plenty of headaches.
But all is boding well for the league leaders who should be good enough to get a positive result here before moving into the Grand Final following the return leg next week.

Verdict: Roar 2-0

Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar

Date: Saturday, 19 February 2011
Venue: Bluetongue Stadium, Gosford

Head-to-Head: All matches (played 20): Central Coast Mariners wins 3, Brisbane Roar wins 10 (7 draws)

Match fact:
- The scene is set for a battle between goalkeepers Mathew Ryan (Central Coast – 12 clean sheets) and Michael Theoklitos (Brisbane Roar – 11 clean sheets) for the title of most clean sheets for season 2010/11, and with it a new Hyundai A-League season record. Last weekend against Newcastle, Ryan set a new Hyundai A-League for most clean sheets in a season when he kept his 12th clean sheet for 2010/11, while last month Theokiltos equaled the season record of 11 clean sheets. The previous record of 11 clean sheets in a season was initially set by Clint Bolton (2009/10 Sydney), and equaled recently by Glen Moss (2010/11 Gold Coast). A clean sheet is attained when a goalkeeper plays a whole match without conceding a goal.
- Having not lost any of their last 25 matches and clearly surpassing the previous record longest undefeated streak in Australian national league football (22 matches undefeated, Apia Leichhardt 1986-1987), Brisbane Roar could equal the longest undefeated streak ever recorded in AFL/VFL history, the longest undefeated streak record in that competition being 26 matches, set by Geelong in 1952-1953.


Central Coast Mariners squad: 2. Daniel McBREEN, 3. Joshua ROSE, 4. Pedj BOJIC, 6. Patrick ZWAANSWIJK, 7. John HUTCHINSON, 8. Rostyn GRIFFITHS, 10. Patricio PEREZ, 11. Oliver BOZANIC, 14. Michael McGLINCHEY, 16. Trent SAINSBURY, 18. Alex WILKINSON, 19. Matt SIMON, 20. Mathew RYAN (gk), 22. Mustafa AMINI, 23. Adam KWASNIK, 24. Bernie IBINI ISEI, 25. Mitchell DUKE, 30. Paul HENDERSON (gk) *two to be omitted*
In: Matt SIMON (return from injury), Rostyn GRIFFITHS (promoted), Mitchell DUKE (promoted)
Out: Nil
Unavailable: Brad PORTER (knee - four weeks), Nik MRDJA (knee - six weeks), Jess VANSTRATTAN (knee - season)

Brisbane Roar squad: 1. Michael THEOKLITOS (gk), 2. Matt SMITH, 4. Shane STEFANUTTO, 5. Ivan FRANJIC, 6. Erik PAARTALU, 7. Kosta BARBAROUSES, 8. Massimo MURDOCCA, 9. Jean Carlos SOLORZANO, 10. HENRIQUE, 12. Matt MUNDY, 14. Rocky VISCONTE, 15. Matt McKAY (c), 17. Mitch NICHOLS, 20. Andrew REDMAYNE (gk), 22. Thomas BROICH, 23. Milan SUSAK
In: Massimo MURDOCCA (returns from injury), Jean Carlos SOLORZANO (returns from injury)
Out: Chris BUSH (omitted)
Unavailable: James MEYER (toe injury 4-6 weeks)

Premier’s Plate winners Brisbane travel to Bluetongue Stadium for the first leg of the grand final qualifier against the Mariners on Saturday night, intent not only on extending their record 25-match unbeaten run, but also scoring all-important away goals – which count double in home-and-away ties, should the final goal aggregate for both teams be level.


Ange Postecoglou’s side finished the A-League regular-season on 65 points – eight clear of Central Coast – and will be confident of finding the net at least once on Saturday, having scored a whopping eight goals in their two previous trips to Gosford this season. Attacking duo Mitch Nichols and Jean Carlos Solorzano are both almost certain to start after missing the Roar’s 4-0 thumping of Gold Coast United last weekend with niggling injuries.


The Mariners are in red-hot form themselves, having now gone undefeated in nine outings – including six wins. Striker Matt Simon is a strong chance to make an early return from a knee injury, while coach Graham Arnold is likely to reinstate defensive midfielder Rostyn Griffiths – who was rested from his side’s final two games to avoid an accumulative yellow card suspension – in place of veteran John Hutchinson.


Central Coast went within a whisker of ending the Roar’s unbeaten streak when the two sides drew 3-3 in their last meeting at Bluetongue Stadium in round 22, and come Saturday they will be up for the challenge again. Back the draw at 3.30.

It may have become a cliché, but it is nevertheless true that momentum is absolutely vital when it comes to finals football and both Central Coast Mariners and Brisbane Roar have plenty behind them as prepare to lock horns at Bluetongue Stadium on Saturday.
Graham Arnold’s quiet achievers lost just one of their last 14 regular season games, again confounding the critics who predicted that they would struggle under the guidance of the former Socceroos coach, while Roar extended their record-breaking unbeaten run to 25 games courtesy of last week’s 4-0 mauling of Gold Coast.

A comparatively clear-run on the injury front has certainly helped the home side to firm up their title challenge in recent weeks and Arnold will again have virtually a full squad from which to make his final selection.

Rostyn Griffiths and John Hutchinson are battling it out for a midfield berth, with the former likely to get the nod, while up front Matt Simon will be hoping to reclaim his place after recovering from a knee injury, but faces stiff competition from Adam Kwasnik, Daniel McBreen and promising youngster Bernie Ibini-Isei.

Roar coach Ange Postecoglou, meanwhile, rather surprisingly opted not to rest any of his key men last week and his gamble appears to have paid off with no fresh injury concerns reported.
Midfielder Mitch Nicholls could force his way onto the bench after his ankle problem proved to be less serious than initially feared and strike duo James Meyer and Jean Carlos Solorzano should also come into the reckoning after missing the Gold Coast game through respective toe and quad injuries.

First leg clashes tend to be cagey affairs and this Mariners – Roar showdown is likely to be no exception.

The visitors have picked up seven points from the three meetings between the two sides this season and will inevitably be installed as warm favourites to prevail over the two legs, but they might have to settle for a draw first up.

Prediction: Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Brisbane Roar

Will be a great game to watch. It's hard to pass up Roar's value.. What are people leaning towards?

[whitedogau]

Roar win this

[Ace_of_Spades]

Roar deserve to win this game. This is a silly system. They shouldn't have playoffs.

[Aristocles]

O2 @ -149, then. WTH.

[Puda]

Roar deserve to win this game. This is a silly system. They shouldn't have playoffs.

Boo hoo,. if their the best they will win the 2 leg playoff... can march in to the finals and win.

CC has been in great form.. this game will be a tight affair.. hopefully Roar can win. 2-3, 1-2 .2-2.

[TwoWays]

Man, the over 2 is juiced so much. I want to play over but am not sure.

[Aristocles]

Well, my hat is in. . . wish me luck, guys

[Gracchus]

Brisbane ftw

[Puda]

0:0 nearing HT... only 2 shots on target from both teams.

[Gracchus]

1-0 Roar, can they hang on