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I'm considering making a CL pick for my next bet. I can't decide if I want to go with Partizan over Braga or Marseille over Zilina. I think I'm leaning more on Marseille over Zilina at the moment. Im going to post one of the two in the next 15-20 mins before I got to bed. Any suggestions on the two or other CL games that are looking good? If there are any convincing arguments for either pick I will go with that for my next line bet.
Take MarseilleOriginally Posted by Nickos
. Their champions league success is at risk, I don't see zilina stopping them from taking all three points tonight.
I think Marselle over Zilina is more possible that Partizan over Braga!
I'd be careful of a French team away from home
It depends on the teams they play. They perform very well against weak clubs. lyon beat hapoel tel aviv but schakle o4 luckily got 1 points from tel aviv. Today if marseile don't win, qualifying to the next round will be almost impossible for them.
Alright Play #10
2010-11-03 Champions League MSK Zilina Vs Olympique Marseille Pick Marseille
Bet $79.20 @ 1.79
If Marseille Wins I profit $62.50 - $3.14 (comm) =$59.36
Last two losses $39.60-$59.40+$59.36 = $-39.64
I will still be in the negative and will need to continue this line
new line would be 19.80-19.80-19.80-39.60
next bet would be $59.40
If Marseille Lose
new line would be 19.80-19.80-19.80-19.80-39.60-59.40-79.20
Next bet would be $99
Last edited by Nickos; 11-03-10 at 02:40 PM. Reason: Added some $ signs
Holy S#IT! Marseille has opened a clinic on Zilina so far! 3-0 in the 26'! Been watching the game a few decent goals too! Hopefully they hold this lead!Damien and Latinrus and anyone else who is looking good with Marseille!
Good shitHoly S#IT! Marseille has opened a clinic on Zilina so far! 3-0 in the 26'! Been watching the game a few decent goals too! Hopefully they hold this lead!. I am starting to understand this game more. Soon I will start betting only on teams playing very important match against weaker opponents. My picks today Bayern and Marseille seems to be winners. Marseille knew they wont have any real chance if they dont win against weak zilina, while bayern want to set a record in germany
6-0 now! Woot!Good shit
Good points Damien, I think your right. I think in a lot of sports motivation is a huge factor that is probably underestimated. Even in all of JM betting systems it involves some sort of motivation factor. Keep up the good work sir! All the best!
7-0 Now 66' min! Going to count this as a win because I think its pretty obvious what the end results going to be!
Profit $62.50 - $3.14 (comm) =$59.36
Last two losses $39.60-$59.40+$59.36 = $-39.64
New line: 19.80-19.80-19.80-39.60
Next bet: $59.40
System Record
7-4, +$152.58
you're doing good
Holy S#IT! Marseille has opened a clinic on Zilina so far! 3-0 in the 26'! Been watching the game a few decent goals too! Hopefully they hold this lead!
Thanks bud. Your right 5 losses in a row would seriously hurt my bankroll and it is for sure possible without a doubt. Obviously I'm hoping this doesn't occur but lets just work out the math just incase I lose my next 5 in a row.you're doing good
Current bankroll $752.58
Bet 1
Line: 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.60
Bet amount $59.40, say that loses
Bankroll = $752.58-$59.40 = $693.18
Bet 2
Line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.60-59.40
Bet amount $79.20, say that loses
Bankroll = $693.18-$79.20 = $613.98
Bet 3
Line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.60-59.40-79.20
Bet amount $99, say that loses
Bankroll = $613.98-$99 = $514.98
Bet 4
Line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.60-59.40-79.20-99
Bet amount $118.80' say that loses
Bankroll = $514.98-118.80 = $396.18
Bet 5
Line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.60-59.40-79.20-99-118.80
Bet amount $138.60, say that loses
Bankroll = $396.18 - $138.60 = $257.58
Bet 6
Line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.6-55.40-79.20-99-118.80-136.60
Bet amount $156.40 say that wins at @ 2.2
Bankroll = $91.18+344.08 = $435.26
Bet 7
Line 19.8-19.8-39.6-55.4-79.2-99-118.8
Bet amount $138.6, say that loses
Bankroll = $435.26-$138.60 = $296.66
Bet 8
Line 19.8-19.8-39.6-55.4-79.2-99-118.8-136.6
Bet amount $156.40, say that wins at 2.2
Bankroll = $140.26 + $344.08 = $484.34
Bet 9
Line 19.8-39.6-55.4-79.2-99-118.8
Bet amount $138.60, say that wins at 2.4
Bankroll = $345.74 + $332.64 = $678.38
Bet 10
Line 39.6-55.4-79.2-99
Bet amount $138.60, say that loses
Bankroll = $678.38 - $138.60 = $539.78
Bet 11
Line 39.6-55.4-79.2-99-138.6
Bet amount $178.2, say that wins at 2.35
Bankroll = $361.58 + $418.44 = $780.02
Finally up after 7 losses (5 in a row) and only 4 wins. I cleared this line, I would then recalculate and start all over. Hopefully this scenario never happens but this is sorta how it would play out. To protect myself even more I could divide my standard bet value in half again, so instead of 19.8 being my standard unit for this bankroll size I could use maybe 9.9, that would allow a bigger loss streak and still be able to survive. Hope this worked out example helps. For simplicity I did not include my commission charges.
Last edited by Nickos; 11-04-10 at 06:38 AM. Reason: Found a math error
Interesting, I've been trying to find a good chase system. Your system looks pretty good, as I don't think I can loose 5 picks on a row.Let's see how far it can go for you.Hope it works out positively cos I'm thinking of using the system, hope you don't mind
On a side note, If I'm on a really bad losing streak I may actually decide to go with one of my PLS (plus line sports) subscribed over/under soccer plays that I get in my email because they are killing it right now with a record that is like 14-2 or something rediculas. However, if I do this I would not be able to share that selection of this forum due to privacy reasons and that would affect anyone following these selections, which are at your own risk may I add.
Last edited by Nickos; 11-04-10 at 06:58 AM. Reason: Typo
Not at all, use away, I don't take ownership of this system, I didn't invent it. I just like it and am giving it a chance or as they say here in Australia "a go". I have seen it many places before I decided to back test and eventually use it. I literally put in hours of back testing "what if's" on preselected games that met a certain criteria.Interesting, I've been trying to find a good chase system. Your system looks pretty good, as I don't think I can loose 5 picks on a row.Let's see how far it can go for you.Hope it works out positively cos I'm thinking of using the system
Props to Frank Belanger at golden systems, my man Chilidog who uses this system and explains how it works very well in his thread right here at SBR and of course the Internet needs some credit as well.
The system is called labouchere and one good site to check it out is http://labbysway.com, again more props, this time to eekapp333 for posting this in chili's thread!
Last edited by Nickos; 11-04-10 at 07:24 AM.
I was having a hard time picking my next play and finally just picked it right in time. It was either between Atletico Madrid or Club Brugge. Decided Brugge.
Pick # 11
2010-11-04 Europa League Brugge Vs Zagreb Pick Brugge
Bet $59.49 @ 2.32
I might have some more picks for the second half Europa fixtures.
Hmmm Atletico already up? Maybe should have gone with them, oh well better not second guess myself now!
Depending how I feel after this match or if I'm awake, I'm looking at 1 of 3 different options for my next choice.
Either
Zenit St Petersburg over Hajduk Split
Sampdoria over Metalist Kharkiv
Or
Dortmund over PSG
Suggestions welcome!
If I saw your post earlier, I would have suggested athletico madrid. I picked athletico and lille. From half time stats, it looks like lille are lucky to be 1 - 1 now. Seems Levski is playing better. I am watching athletico , they created better chances and should have been up by 2 goals or more, but rosenborg are dominating and pushing for an equalizer. it is an open game so far.
athletico madrid leading 2 - 1. they don't deserve it. they've been outplayed the whole second half. Hope they can hang on for the remaining 6 minutes or so.Lille is dead
What do you think about the other 3 I posted? I think I'm leaning closer to zenit or sampdoria than Dortmund at the moment.athletico madrid leading 2 - 1. they don't deserve it. they've been outplayed the whole second half. Hope they can hang on for the remaining 6 minutes or so.Lille is dead
man zenith travel without 5 key players.. today away teams doesn't seem to be a good play. I am leaning on liverpool ML
From those 3, you can take sampdoria. They are at home and victory is need. but metalist a very good team, with lots of brazilians
Pick 12
2010-11-04 Europa League Sampdoria Vs Metalist Kharkiv Pick Sampdoria
Bet $79.20 @ 2.1
Bad I didn't watched also! I took CSKA -1. Russian teams are very good at the Europa league!
BOL with Sampdoria!
I decided right before kickoff to get both games in there, first pick was sampdoria but I got zenit in as well but I decided to play ot down a level, so I got it in at $59.20 at varying odds. I have a lot of calculations to figure out on what if's.
Pick 13
2010-11-04 Europa League Zenit St Petersburg Vs Hajduk Split pick Zenit
$24.53 @ 2.34
$34.67 @ 2.32
Both games still 0-0 in the 25' min
edit: 3-0 as i was writing!
By the way the bet was $59.40 not $59.49, typing on iPad is not that easy.
Brugge Vs Zagreb Pick Brugge LOSS 2-0
Bankroll = $752.58-$59.40 = $693.18
this lines current debt = $39.64+$59.20 = $98.84
Next line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.60-59.40
Next bet $79.20 (which is on Sampdoria)
4 possible scenarios
Both teams win
Both teams don't win
Zenit wins but not Sampdoria
Sampdoria but not Zenit
Best case scenario (Both Win)
With comm and different odds if Zenit wins I profit $65.06
If Sampdoria win I profit $82.76
Combined = $147.52 - $98.84 (current debt) = $48.68
I then close the line and star over
Scenario 2 - Worst Case (both lose)
Current debt ($98.84 -59.20-79.20) = $237.24
New line= 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.6-59.40-135.40
next bet = $155.20
next pick = PLS over/under
Scenario 3 - current scenario at 49', Zenit wins Sampdoria loses
Zenit profit = $65.06
Sampdoria loss = $79.20
Total = -$14.14
line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.6-59.4-14.14
Next bet $33.94
Last Scenario Sampdoria win Zenit tie or lose
Total = $79.20-$59.20 =-$20
line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.6-59.4-20
Next bet $39.80
Zenit looking good up 3-0!!!
good call on zenith. with almost reserve team they're leading 3 - 0
Congrats on Liverpool finding the net late!
Upon review on my betting history page at my book makers website I realized I made a calculation mistake, math and 5 am certainly don't mix. I will attempt to correct this but I admit I'm no math genius. Don't ever ask me to adjust your taxes but if your back or neck are sore I can adjust them without a problem!
Recalculation:
Zenit Profit
$24.53 @ 2.34 = $57.40
$34.67 @ 2.32 = $80.43
$57.40 - $24.53 = $32.87
$80.43 - $34.67 = $47.76
$32.87 X 0.05 = $1.64
$47.76 X 0.05 = $2.39
$32.87 - $1.64 = $31.23
$47.76 - $2.39 = $45.37
Profit = $31.23 + $45.37 = $76.60
Zenit profit = $76.60
Sampdoria loss = $79.20
Total = -$2.60
line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.6-59.4-2.60
Just going to add that $2.60 to the last value in my line
$59.4+$2.60 = $62
New line 19.8-19.8-19.8-39.6-62
Next bet = $81.80
This play has thrown my numbers out on my on-going record so I am going to skip calling my next play, "pick 14" instead name it "pick 15" this would normalize everything back up.
Current Record
8-6
Wow what an end to the Thunder - Blazers game! Cashed in on a Lay bet of under 191.5 points for $60 @ 4.5 liability and backed Oklahoma at the start for $35 @ 3.1 which won in OT! Nice profit of $126.83 today so far. This value does not effect this system however. The profit is added to another division of my bankroll.
Anyways, looking at 2 games tonight for this system. Thinking about picking FC Mets over Le Mans in The French league 2. This game is at 6:00 AM Sydney Time, 13 hours from now. However, I have received a PLS play that occurs before the FC Mets fixture that I am interested in playing. Personally I feel like this line has been open for too long and I just want to close it and move on. With the excellent record that PLS holds, my best chances at getting closer to closing it at a profit by going with this play.
I'm sorry anyone who is following my picks exactly but I cannot release my next pick. Normally I play these picks with my other half of my bankroll that doesn't effect this system but like I said I want to move onto the next line and this is my best chance to. I understand that this move could appear like an opportunity to alter my record but to be honest my selection record doesn't mean shit to me I just post it for anyone interested, what matters to me is making money. I'm not here to prove anything to anyone about any selection I make, so if you have beef with me playing my paid picks on occasion then either pay for them yourself or suck it up, I don't want to hear about it.
I don't think anyone in here will have a problem but I just wanted to clear the air before anyone considers complaining. Ultimately this is my thread and I receive the right to do this, if the play loses I will honestly admit it and carry on with the system. If you are a subscriber to PLS and you want to know which of a few selections I would be playing PM me all they picks they made to prove to me you are one and if you are correct in their selections I will tell you which one is the play I am going with.
Pick #15
PLS over/under play
Bet:$81.80 @ 1.89
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