Recommend not following, just posting to see what happens...the plus does not mean playing the spread.
Wk 3
+2 plays
Blackburn
Stoke
Wolverhamption
+1
No plays
All plays are risking 1 unit
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08-23-10 10:50 PM #1
jakeandba experimental EPL soccer picks
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08-23-10 11:36 PM #2
Good Luck love the Blackburn play
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08-26-10 10:36 PM #3
ok gonna add Germany, Italy, and Spain picks. Gonna play on +1 plays to draw. Again all plays for 1 unit
German
Bayern v Kaisers to draw
Italy
Still researching
Spain
Still researching
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09-06-10 05:15 PM #4
As an update to my research....the idea was the following. took the scores from the previous week and run a standard deviation on goals for...this would serve as a filter thus cutting down the number of plays. To get a good sample was able to do the first 27 weeks, this gave a sample size of roughly 65%. The results in teams falling into +1 and +2 category. (Since a score could not below 0, then there was no neg -1 or -2 category). This was with EPL for the past 2 seasons
the results are as follows:
08-09
betting against the +1 team= 1 unit gained
09 10
betting against the +1 team = 1 unit gained
as you can see this is not a good method
08-09
betting against the +1 = loss of 23 units
09-10
betting against the +1 = loss of 1 unit
Playing the draw for +1 teams
08-09
Plus 8 units
09-10
huge loss (actually stopped counting since it was huge)
next category:
08-09
Betting against +2 teams= loss of 11 units
09-10
Betting against +2 teams = loss of 1 unit
Not a good wager system
08-09
Betting with +2 teams = 1 unit gained
09-10
Betting with +2 team = 1 unit lossed
not a good method
Betting for and against the draw +2
Not profitable
betting the same method with +3 teams ---not profitable
the only thing that was profitable was when a +2 played a +1 team.
Taking the +1 team won 6 units....but the sample size was only 3 games or so.
the good thing about experiment was the answer to if this was a good idea to handicap games.
the bad was all the time and effort taken to come up with a failure of an idea......on to the next idea regarding handicapping soccer.
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