[GatorTD]

Last year we didnt do too badly, but life caught up to me so while I continued to bet, I had to stop posting as much. Pretty simple betting standard here. Regular play or regular parlay will be valued at 1 Unit. Parlay of the Day will be valued at 2-5 units. Single Play Of the Day will be valued at 3-10 units. To minimize risk and losses, any POTD matches will not be doubled up on single unit bets. Point of the game will be money management for the most part, while allowing myself some wiggle room to be confident. Only one POTD per day, although some days may be skipped due to confidence issues.

Heres some Saturday plays I'm starting out with.

Netherlands - Hercules -1 (-120)
Argentina - Argentina Juniors -1/2 (-120)
Brazil B - Figueirense -1 (-135)
Brazil B - Brasiliense -1 (-130)
Norway - Rosenborg -1 (-135)
Peru - Universidad San Martín de Porres ML +155

Play O The Day - 3 Unit
Poland - Lech Poznan -1/2 +120

[GatorTD]

Shifty start to the morning. Lech takes a 1-0 lead only to give it up on an uncalled handball that leads to a shot that hits the keeper square in the hands but deflects off the post and in.

[SRBI]

Today will be one of those days. I'm steppin away from the computer right now and stayin away till tomorrow. Good luck folks.

[GatorTD]

Netherlands - Hercules -1 (-120) WIN
Argentina - Argentina Juniors -1/2 (-120) LOSS
Brazil B - Figueirense -1 (-135) WIN
Brazil B - Brasiliense -1 (-130) WIN
Norway - Rosenborg -1 (-135) WIN
Peru - Universidad San Martín de Porres ML +155 WIN

Play O The Day - 3 Unit
Poland - Lech Poznan -1/2 +120 LOSS

5-2 +1.35U on the day.

[GatorTD]

5 Unit POTD
Sweden - AIK -1/2 +110

Best value of the day here. AIK is the defending Swedish champion, and while they currently sit in the relegation zone, they are 3 for 3 in recent home matches, including a 4-1 domination of 2nd placed Malmo. AIK has also never lost to Brommapojkarna on home soil, going 3-0-1 in 4 home matches.

Mexico - Cruz Azul ML +160
Mexico Morelia - -1/2 -130
Denmark - Bromby ML +125
Sweden - Kalmar -1 +105

[GatorTD]

5 Unit POTD
Sweden - AIK -1/2 +110 WINNER


Mexico - Cruz Azul ML +160 LOSS
Mexico Morelia - -1/2 -130 WIN
Denmark - Bromby ML +125 WIN
Sweden - Kalmar -1 +105 PUSH

Big day. Kalmar and AIK both score in stoppage time to gain the push and the win. Only Azul lets me down.

3-1-1. +6.75U

Season Total 8W - 1D - 3L. +8.1U.

[spal2811]

nice season so far Gator...keep it up

[GatorTD]

POTD - 3 Unit Sweden - GIF Sundsvall -1 1/2 +120

Having to get a 2 goal win isnt exactly a favorite thing of mine to do. As a matter of fact, Ive altered my betting style (I wont say its a system because I allow a lot of room for hunches or gut feelings) to try to limit the amount of multiple goal wins needed. I do feel confident in laying the money here though. Sundsvall is all about the #2. #2 in the League Standings. #2 in Goal Difference. #2 in Goals Scored. #2 in Home Goals Scored. So obivously, needing 2 goals is the perfect amount. If history is any standard, 3 of the 4 Sundsvall wins over Vasby are by 2 goals. Im going with the coincidences.

Sweden - Norrkoping -1/2 EVEN
Friendly - Levante -1/2 +120

[GatorTD]

nice season so far Gator...keep it up

TY. Lets hope we can keep it going!

[GatorTD]

Crappy. Didnt expect Sundsvall to allow 2 goals, especially as quickly as they did. Norrkoping grabbed a 1-0 winner so if I can catch a Levante win then we'd only lose a unit today.

[GatorTD]

POTD - 3 Unit Sweden - GIF Sundsvall -1 1/2 +120 LOSS
Sweden - Norrkoping -1/2 EVEN WIN
Friendly - Levante -1/2 +120 LOSS

Ugh.

1-2 -3U.


Season Total 9W - 1D - 5L. +5.1U.

[GatorTD]

All plays today are 1 unit. Theres nothing that strikes me as POTD material. Not worth the risk, especially with the Carling Cup parlays. I love betting on the cups for some reason. I even have a 12 teamer going right now.


Sweden - Landskrona -1/2 -130

Parlay +269
Friendly - Augsburg / VfB Stuttgart Over 3
Friendly - Lazio -1/2

Parlay +29.69
Peterborough United -1
Scunthorpe United -½
Sheffield Wednesday -1
Leicester City ML
Doncaster Rovers ML
Leeds United ML
Norwich City ML
Swansea City ML


Parlay +31.55
Peterborough United -1
Sheffield Wednesday -1
Nottingham Forest -½
Queens Park Rangers -1
Norwich City ML
Preston North End -½

[GatorTD]

Lucky I expected parlay losses. Missed the 6-gamer on an 83rd minute goal. How crappy. Just realized Serie B in Brazil was playing tonight, so we're not done yet.

Gator's Chomp of the Day
Brazil B - Bahia -1/2 -125 5 Units

Coritiba -1/2 -130 1U
Figueirense ML +185 1U (Figueirense was sitting at +200 earlier today, so theres been some movement here).

[JOHON8]

I see you like making a lot of plays, do you follow line movement in your decision making as well? GL

[GatorTD]

I do. I think you have to consider it in order to be successful. I almost never make a play specifically off line movement though. I have to feel confident in the play before I see line movement, and then let that data help me determine whether to play or pass. My confidence in a play comes from current and historical trends.

I probably extend myself alittle bit more in terms of games than I should, but I do like to bet a variety of leagues. My personal belief is its hard to find value in soccer if youre only looking at one specific league. Others may disagree and see an advantage over following one specific league to get better information. I also think soccer is probably the most linear sport in terms of betting, so raw numbers are a great tool to use. The one reason why I use the 'Play of the Day' idea is its a money management tool for me. I allow myself one 'full confidence' pick. Like yesterday, everything I saw on Bahia told me it was a confident play. There was alot of data from this season in terms of home/away splits in Serie B as well as historical matchups that Bahia held a sizeable advantage in. I felt confident enough to make a good size play, but was able to keep myself from blowing all I had won because I had managed my other two bets I was confident in, but not as much as Bahia.

[GatorTD]

sweden - landskrona -1/2 -130 win

parlay +269 loss

parlay +29.69 loss

parlay +31.55 loss

gator's chomp of the day
brazil b - bahia -1/2 -125 5 units win

coritiba -1/2 -130 1u loss
figueirense ml +185 1u loss

2-5 +.7u

[GatorTD]

Season Total 11W- 1D - 10L. +5.8U.

1 Unit plays.
Friendly - Sweden -1 Even
Carling Cup - Sheffield United -1/2 EVEN
Carling Cup - Reading -1/2 +110


Might have another play later, but it hasnt released on my book. If it does, and the line is where I expect it to be, it'll be my POTD.

[GatorTD]

Game i was looking for never made it to the card, so we'll jump on a 1 unit play in MLS action.


MLS - New York Red Bull -1 +110

[GatorTD]

Legia Warszawa -1 (-130) - 3 Unit POTD

Bursaspor Kulübü -1 (-155) 1U
FC Midtjylland -½ (-120) 1U

[GatorTD]

Legia Warszawa -1 (-130) - 3 Unit POTD PUSH

Bursaspor Kulübü -1 (-155) 1U PUSH
FC Midtjylland -½ (-120) 1U WIN

Two stoppage time goals earn a push and a win. 1W - 0L - 2D +1U

[GatorTD]

5U POTD - Monaco ML +120

1U Monaco/Montpellier Over 2 -115
1U Zenit -1 +105
Tottenham -1 +115
Sparta Praha -1 +110