[Thomas_Garber]

Everyone is pounding the Under even though the odds are anywhere from -120 to -150 in the books. There is a general assumption among all punters that these two teams are going to play for a Draw so that they can guarantee move past the group stage. These odds on Draw have no value at all.

There is a good chance this game will end in a draw but neither of these two teams are actually going to play for a Draw. Why? Because these two teams are almost a lock to qualify. The loser of this match is pretty much a lock for second place because even if France or South Africa manages to win, they can only tie the loser of this match. In this case the tie breaker would come into effect.

FIFA has set the order of the tie-breakers for teams that finish level on points:

1. goal difference in all group matches
2. greater number of goals scored in all group matches

Where teams are still not able to be separated, the following tie-breakers are used:

1. greater number of points obtained in matches between the tied teams
2. goal difference in matches between the tied teams
3. greater number of goals scored in matches between the tied teams

Where teams are still equal, then a play-off on neutral ground, with extra time and penalties if necessary will be played if FIFA deems such a play-off able to be fitted within the coordinated international match calendar. If this is not deemed feasible, then the result will be determined by the drawing of lot.


First tie breaker is goal difference. Uruguay holds +3 and Mexico holds +2 in goal difference. While South Africa is -3 and France is -2. This means Uruguay holds a +6 advantage over SA and +5 advantage over France while Mexico holds +5 advantage over SA and +4 advantage over France.

We can safely assume that there is going to be no trashing (blow out) in the Mexico/Uruguay game because of the circumstances around this game which I will discuss further in a bit. If there is no draw, the game will be decided by a goal. Lets assume that Mexico loses by 1 goal to Uruguay--now Mexico holds +4 goal difference over SA and +3 Over France. That means South Africa has to beat France by 5 goals to get the edge in goal difference or France has to beat SA by 4 goals. It is unlikely SA will beat France, best they can hope for is a draw but if they win it is definitely not going to be by 4 goals. France may win but it is highly unlikely that they will beat SA by 4 goals in front of their home crowd. Remember that if France manage to tie the goal difference they still can't qualify since they lost to Mexico in head to head. Now lets assume that Uruguay loses by one goal--in this case things get even tougher for SA and France because they have to win by even bigger margin since Uruguay holds better goal difference than Mexico.

Both of these games will kick off at the same time and the coaches will keep the eye on the scoreboard. It is highly unlikely that there will be a blowout in the France/SA game. France defense is good enough to not let SA blow them out. France offense is not good enough to get a blow out victory either, especially now that they have sent Anelka back home--France hasn't scored a goal in this world cup.

This Mexico/Uruguay game is for first place. Uruguay can clinch first place as long as they don't lose. Mexico must win to get first place and they will try to win. So, this is a game for 1st place. 1st place means, you go against South Korea (most probable) Greece or Nigeria, which could mean a chance for quarter finals, which will of course be a huge success. 2nd place means Argentina, so bye bye World Cup. Would you not be motivated to go for first place?

Contrary to the public and popular believe that Mexico and Uruguay will play for DRAW, it is most likely that Mexico will try to win this game. Both of these teams are playing for first place because they know that they are almost a lock to qualify even if they lose. This game should be similar to a first round game in the group stage--very cautious and slow--in the last 15 minutes you can expect Mexico to push harder on the attack to get the lead and win so that they can climb out of 2nd place. My estimate is that this game has a 57% chance of Draw, 23% chance of Mexico win and a 20% Chance of Uruguay win. I think the safest bet is Mexico PK. Draw has absolutely no value at the current odds.

[nj6]

A lot of variables but in the end I see a 0-0 draw.

[lockwoot]

Good point, both teams don't want to play argentina that would be suicide to end second place.
I layed the f... out of this game @ 1.80

[Ultralord]

draw - nothing else. Does anyone really think any team wants to risk a loss and finally give France the chance to advance? No way.

[Thomas_Garber]

draw - nothing else. Does anyone really think any team wants to risk a loss and finally give France the chance to advance? No way.

Public rarely win. So far only big win public had this world cup is when brazil beat Ivory Coast.

Betfair had couple of millions matched on the draw in this game....and they all lost.