UNDER 3 BRA/PRK -135 (1 Unit)

Rankings: Brazil #1 / N. Korea #105

Last 6 matches:
Brazil: 2.17 GF / 0.17 GA
N. Korea: 0.83 GF / 1.67 GA

#1 ranked team in the world is facing the WORST ranked team in the world cup. Most people will automatically expect a rout, but not so fast. There are a number of factors that leads me to conclude that the SMART play is on the UNDER here.

Not counting their last warm-up game prior to WC (Brazil beat Tanzania 5-1), there were 5 matches that Brazil played. The average score in these were 1.6 goals per game. Looking closer, Brazil did NOT allow even one goal scored against them in these matches (again, I'm ignoring their last game against a weak Tanzania squad where most starters didn't log significant minutes). The highest score was a 3-0 win against Zimbabwe, which is ranked 110th in the world. Against 91st ranked Oman, Brazil played to a 2-0 win. This tells me that this is a Brazilian squad that is more interested in winning games in an efficient manner, versus enternaining their fans with "joga bonita". Dunga brought defensive emphasis to this squad and that's why they are the favorites to win this World Cup.

Important to note that due to Brazil's efforts on defense, there is virtually no chance that North Korea will score today. This is reflected in the Vegas line where the oddsmakers made the UNDER 0.5 goal for N. Korea at close to -300 odds. So I know that North Korea won't score, but even more importantly, North Korea themselves know they won't score! That's the only way to explain their defensive formation of 5-4-1. This team will be focused on defending today.

Their keeper, RI MYONG-GUK kept a phenomenal 10 clean sheets during qualifying. In all, he conceded only six goals in the 15 games he appeared in. "He is not the most commanding of keepers when dealing with high balls, but he relies on sharp reflexes and is an good shot-stopper." -- (from bbc.com) Interesting to note that when North Korea faced South Korea (the best team in their qualifying group), their record was 0-1-2 (1 loss and 2 draws), allowing South Korean's to score only 2 goals in 3 matches against them. South Korea (ranked # 47) beat a 13th ranked Greece team 2-0 in their first game.

One last factor to consider is the weather for today's games. Currently it's 37 degrees, which is near freezing with winds coming in at 16 miles per hour. It is very cold. Whether you think weather plays a role or not, Brazilians aren't used to the cold. Yes some of them play in cold weather with their club teams but overall there's going to be some discomfort there. This is yet another factor that favors the Under in this game.

UNDER 3 goals is a smart play here. For us to lose this wager, Brazil will need to score 4 goals, and only Germany has done that so far, albeit with a help of a red card. Speaking of discipline, in their last 20 matches Brazil has received 13 yellow cards --- North Korea ==> ZERO!

Good luck!