Malaga to win +900 1 unit
Let me first of all say that I can not take credit for the knowledge of what I'm about to tell you and my reasoning behind betting on Málaga today when they host Real Madrid.
I am an avid La Liga bettor myself and have hit some nice bets in certain spots of my own throughout this long season of Spain La Liga or Primera División if you like. The tip I am getting from another norwegian guy whose knowledge of this league exceeds by far my own knowledge of the league, but I do agree with him, though.
Málaga are in dire need of points for them to survive from relegation today. The task looks impossible as they host a Real Madrid team also in need of three points for them to go past Barcelona and win the league.
However, Barcelona hosts today a Valladolid team who, even though are in desperate need of points to survive themselves, have in reality no real possibility of actually getting those points vs a Barcelona team looking to win the league again this year.
We have seen motivation beat class and superior teams many times before when the league closes in to end the season, and I know it's difficult to even think Malaga can beat Real Madrid - but all I am asking is have an open mind and try to not to think of Real Madrid as the team that has beaten teams with big scores all season, and try to envision how tough of a blow it will be to them knowing Barcelona will win over Valladolid today and that their (Real Madrid) season is in fact over now. They have been a disappointment in the champions league and now they will end as 2nd best in the league once again. Their motivation is surely not top notch visiting Malaga today.
Also, and here comes the punchline, the conspiracy theory, the possible, not necessarily "fixed" game, but perhaps a helping hand to Malaga from Real Madrid.
And once again, don't give me credit for this knowledge as I am loaning or stealing it from another guy who shared it - without him I would not think of this myself. Alright.
Malaga president Fernando Sanz is born and raised in Madrid and was a part of the team who won the champions league in 1997. Fernando is also son of Lorenzo Sanz who was Real Madrid president from 1985-1995, and part of the management the following 5 years. The bond between the teams are still strong, and neither of the other teams faced with relegation have any interests for Real Madrid. Facing the 2nd place in the league anyway if Barcelona are to be up in the lead by 2-3 goals at HT vs Valladolid, surely the motivation of this Real Madrid team will get torn in the HT break knowing they have nothing else to play for out there on the pitch, not even to please their own fans considering they are on a visit at Malaga.
Malaga will have everything to play for from start to finish, and they will never give up on the three points. Also we've seen this season what a disaster the defensive play on Real Madrid can be. Several times, even at home, they have been down 0-1 before they wake up and take control of the games and winning them.
I know it's difficult to think Malaga can win today, hell, it's really difficult even in my own wildest imagination to see it happening. The price, though, is pretty good. I can get +900 on Betsson at this time. I'm sorry for not telling you guys about this yesterday or even two days ago when the price was +1000 and +1050 at some places.
Pinnacle open the AH line on Real Madrid at -1.5,-2.0 and that line is now at -1.0,-1.5. The moneyline has gone from +1029 and down to +764.
Here is a history of line movement on the Asian Handicap and Moneyline from Pinnacle, provided by SBRODDS.com:
MONEYLINES
05/11 11:36 +1029 / -404 / +614
05/11 13:56 +997 / -386 / +592
05/11 18:16 +998 / -384 / +588
05/11 20:38 +1017 / -394 / +600
05/12 04:56 +1018 / -392 / +596
05/13 07:54 +1009 / -390 / +597
05/13 10:31 +980 / -385 / +595
05/14 17:24 +960 / -380 / +587
05/14 17:35 +953 / -379 / +587
05/14 17:36 +935 / -374 / +583
05/14 20:22 +920 / -371 / +584
05/14 20:24 +867 / -348 / +568
05/15 10:59 +868 / -346 / +564
05/15 12:59 +825 / -319 / +543
05/15 17:55 +826 / -318 / +540
05/16 02:21 +833 / -321 / +545
05/16 02:21 +833 / -321 / +540
05/16 04:28 +834 / -319 / +519
05/16 05:22 +810 / -309 / +510
05/16 05:33 +790 / -303 / +505
05/16 05:34 +750 / -303 / +505
05/16 05:34 +750 / -295 / +500
05/16 05:38 +700 / -295 / +480
05/16 05:39 +650 / -280 / +460
05/16 05:40 +713 / -274 / +473
05/16 05:45 +753 / -286 / +482
05/16 05:49 +764 / -289 / +485
ASIAN HANDICAPPING
05/10 02:52 1¾ -104 / -1-¾ -104
05/10 08:09 1¾ -113 / -1-¾ +104
05/10 08:41 1¾ -120 / -1-¾ +111
05/10 08:42 1¾ -117 / -1-¾ +108
05/10 10:38 1¾ -112 / -1-¾ +104
05/10 10:39 1¾ -113 / -1-¾ +104
05/10 10:40 1¾ -118 / -1-¾ +109
05/10 11:49 1¾ -121 / -1-¾ +112
05/10 12:16 1¾ -119 / -1-¾ +110
05/10 14:39 1¾ -121 / -1-¾ +112
05/10 14:52 1¾ -119 / -1-¾ +110
05/10 15:25 1¾ -113 / -1-¾ +104
05/11 03:52 1¾ -106 / -1-¾ -102
05/11 03:53 1¾ -104 / -1-¾ -104
05/11 03:59 1¾ -109 / -1-¾ +101
05/11 04:00 1¾ -107 / -1-¾ -101
05/11 07:57 1¾ -115 / -1-¾ +106
05/11 08:02 1¾ -121 / -1-¾ +112
05/11 08:04 1¾ -120 / -1-¾ +111
05/11 08:06 1¾ -112 / -1-¾ +104
05/11 08:10 1¾ -113 / -1-¾ +104
05/11 13:54 1¾ -120 / -1-¾ +111
05/11 17:50 1¾ -118 / -1-¾ +109
05/12 15:15 1¾ -110 / -1-¾ +102
05/12 15:20 1¾ -103 / -1-¾ -105
05/12 15:24 1¾ -102 / -1-¾ -106
05/12 15:30 1¾ -105 / -1-¾ -103
05/12 15:33 1¾ -104 / -1-¾ -104
05/12 16:53 1¾ -111 / -1-¾ +103
05/12 16:56 1¾ -109 / -1-¾ +101
05/13 10:29 1¾ -115 / -1-¾ +106
05/13 13:42 1¾ -114 / -1-¾ +105
05/13 21:33 1¾ -112 / -1-¾ +104
05/14 09:45 1¾ -118 / -1-¾ +109
05/14 11:51 1¾ -122 / -1-¾ +113
05/14 13:25 1¾ -121 / -1-¾ +112
05/14 13:27 1¾ -120 / -1-¾ +111
05/14 17:24 1¾ -122 / -1-¾ +113
05/14 20:22 1¾ -125 / -1-¾ +115
05/15 12:57 1¾ -127 / -1-¾ +120
05/15 12:58 1½ -102 / -1½ -106
05/15 12:58 1½ -102 / -1½ -105
05/15 12:58 1½ -102 / -1½ -106
05/15 13:28 1½ -101 / -1½ -105
05/15 14:24 1½ +100 / -1½ -106
05/15 15:24 1½ -102 / -1½ -104
05/15 15:25 1½ -106 / -1½ -102
05/15 15:43 1½ -105 / -1½ -101
05/15 16:07 1½ -104 / -1½ -104
05/15 20:46 1½ -103 / -1½ -105
05/16 02:28 1½ -102 / -1½ -106
05/16 04:16 1½ -104 / -1½ -104
05/16 05:20 1½ -106 / -1½ -102
05/16 05:21 1½ -116 / -1½ +107
05/16 05:31 1½ -118 / -1½ +109
05/16 05:32 1½ -120 / -1½ +111
05/16 05:33 1½ -126 / -1½ +116
05/16 05:34 1¼ +104 / -1-¼ -113
05/16 05:36 1¼ +105 / -1-¼ -114
05/16 05:38 1¼ +106 / -1-¼ -115
05/16 05:43 1¼ +107 / -1-¼ -116
05/16 05:44 1¼ +109 / -1-¼ -118
05/16 05:47 1¼ +110 / -1-¼ -119
05/16 05:48 1¼ +112 / -1-¼ -121
05/16 05:51 1¼ +113 / -1-¼ -122