[tbill11]

Hey guys, just dropping in with something that I've noticed regarding how linesmakers set soccer moneylines. Normally, when you see a team with a moneyline between -135 and -160, what do you think? "That's too much juice to get the moneyline, let's get the AH for one of the sides" It's a great thought, and its one that all too often leads with people ending in a push if they bet the favorite, or a loss if they bet the dog. The goal of linesmakers in these situations is to get as many people as possible off the favorite ML because they are, with that ML, saying that the favorite will likely win by one goal.

So what do I do to thwart this? TAKE THE JUICE AND BET IT THE NIGHT BEFORE. A great example was Bayern today. Last night they were -135 before public money drove the line up. A lot of people didn't want to take the higher juice, so they bet Lyon +1 or +1/.5. Well, people who bet that second line lost. People who thought they should go with the draw did as well. The best bet with a ML in this situation is to risk it on a -.5/-1 if you can find it, or to just take the favorite the night before and better your chances of hitting.

All this leads me to one play for tomorrow: Hamburg -139. Take it now, because it wont be at that price tomorrow.

Just one helpful capping tip to those like me who love to find out why a Linesmaker sets a line the way he does.

[beeps220]

Great point, I've taken way too many pushes the last few weeks laying -1

[jessetopolski]

join the club

[Smogs]

Good point Tbill