[serc]

I am new to SBR and trying to get familiar with folks in the soccer thread. I do not bet a lot but like to follow all the football (soccer in the US) action that I can find. For this week's champions league games, I'd say take Inter vs Barcelona under 2.5 even 2 with a good value or Inter PK , +1/2. I love Barcelona but they seem a little bit out of rythm and not as strong as they were a few weeks ago. They cannot really score except Messi does something incredible and make things happen. On the other side, Mourinho (I hate him) knows how to lock Barca down, so I am expecting a 0-0 or 1-0 Inter game but you never know what Messi comes up with.

Let me know what you guys think. I will try to post a few games from major european leagues for the remainder of the season. I will do some analysis on Bayern/Lyon game tonight and try to post what I find tomorrow ( I hate Bayern by the way). Let's see how I do.

Inter Milan / Barcelona : Under 2/2.5 1.943
Inter Milan / Barcelona: Inter pk, +1/2 1.813

[althelegend]

The inter -barca u2.5 looks a good call. I would be looking at -125

could not name the winner of this tie so the unders bet looks the safest call.

[onizuka]

I don't know but my thinking is Barcelona will playing aggressive, so I think it's go with over?

[Wilforth]

1H draw

[loyd]

The inter -barca u2.5 looks a good call. I would be looking at -125

could not name the winner of this tie so the unders bet looks the safest call.

50% of all matches around the world finish Under 2.5, the remaining finish over 2.5 the over/under bet is gambling more than anything else

[Smogs]

50% of all matches around the world finish Under 2.5, the remaining finish over 2.5 the over/under bet is gambling more than anything else

No it's not, because that would go for spreads in the NBA, NFL etc, most things in betting are around 50%, the key is to find the edge as with any betting.

I didn't know what to make of the price on this, Inter had an under against CSKA but played with a high tempo before that against Chelsea and that was 2-1. Why after a goal line of 3 against Arsenal should it now be +ev for the over 2.5? Tough to call, but i'd be happier taking Inter +0.25 or just dnb

[Arsenal]

Don't think I will make a play on this game. Think I will just sit back and watch what I hope is a good game.

[nulldah]

agreed to enjoy the game n probably see any live-play opportunity. betting under is like betting inter to win, likewise betting over is like betting barcelona (italy catenaccio vs spain/latin attacking football)

[protein]

Under 2,5 and Inter PK for me. I´d see most likely 1-0 tonight.

[Ace_of_Spades]

1H draw

You seem to back this particular bet a lot.

[DarkNite]

Under 2,5 and Inter PK for me. I´d see most likely 1-0 tonight.

I tail your pick. GL!

[camel]

Might have a dabble at U 1.5 @ $3.

[Smogs]

You seem to back this particular bet a lot.

It's a good way to make cash, in the right situation 1st half draws are easy. French Ligue 2 is arguably one of the best for it

[dachx]

1 - 0 : )

[aceking]

gd luck.

[psv777ua]

Good Luck

[Glada Tartan]

Under 2,5 and Inter PK for me. I´d see most likely 1-0 tonight.

Totally agree!

But you never know with Barca and Messi... Im staying away from this game..

[Domestic]

Just cannot bring myself to play a barca under, even away from home.

[zlate22]

1-2 barca wins

[Tommy_de1st]

Im not sure bout the Under, If any side score an early goal ill go over.
I need to rethink this one

[Smogs]

Pep Guardiola has only seen 9 games where Barca haven't scored in something like 150 games as manager. That's why i'm not confident about the under, because Inter will also score.

[nulldah]

in case anyone dont know, if you think traveling 1000km road journey across three countries could exhaust you, you might avoid barca ML, coz that literally what they did. they travelled sunday afternoon, arrived monday morning, training in the evening and the game is tuesday night.

[hedgejob]

Both teams looked shaky in defense during 1/4 finals but opposition didn't have finishing power. Leaning 02/2.5.

[Tommy_de1st]

in case anyone dont know, if you think traveling 1000km road journey across three countries could exhaust you, you might avoid barca ML, coz that literally what they did. they travelled sunday afternoon, arrived monday morning, training in the evening and the game is tuesday night.

Believe me: it doesnt affect them at all unless they slept on a train station while chcanging coaches/trains

[Josu]

in case anyone dont know, if you think traveling 1000km road journey across three countries could exhaust you, you might avoid barca ML, coz that literally what they did. they travelled sunday afternoon, arrived monday morning, training in the evening and the game is tuesday night.

Yeah, I read about that. I wonder how barcas players react to travelling in such a way when they are used to chartered flights.

[iam416]

[COLOR=#000000! important]Might have a dabble at U 1.5 @ $3.[/color]

Yes. Their group tie was 0-0 at the San Siro in September. Josie will, IMO and contrary to standard tactics, have Inter playing pure catenaccio in the hopes of a 0-0 draw or, best case, 1-0 win. If it's 0-0 he goes to Nou Camp with all to play for and 1 brilliant play from putting Barca up against it.

Personally, I think Barca gets the away goal. I can't see this team going 180 minutes without a goal. Inter won't score. 1-0 to Barca, IMO, with 0-0 being more likely than 1-1.

Under 1' is paying at +244. I think there's value in that number. I also think there's value in betting the Inter team total under 0.5.

EDIT -- of course, timing is everything. If Barca get an early goal, a second seems likely as Inter press for the equalizer they will need to have any prayer in the 2nd leg.

[Nyphra]

I expect Mourinho to give Xavi and Messi personal attention. Which will probably mean that there won't be alot of chances. It will come down to 1-2 moments for Barca to score. On the other side, inter will only get possibilities out of fast break outs and free kicks. Basically it will be a very low scoring game most of the time. I took 1.8 under 2.5.

If I have to choose a outcome it would be a draw (probably 1-1). There is not much value in pk. Barca are favorites but not by much. Any + asian handicap is profitable (also for Barca).

About exhaustion due to travel. The team did it in 2 parts (not overnight!!!). They stopped at Cannes for a night. Believe me, a couple of hours of travel a day in a comfy bus and sleeping in a 5 star hotel won't effect you that much.

[mygooglik]

Agree with Under - I see boring 0-0 FT

[blackf1re]

Also check out this excellent tactital preview from ZonalMarking: http://www.zonalmarking.net/2010/04/...eview-tactics/

Don't know who will go through to the final but one thing is certain: Mourinho has a plan. And it will be a good one. If it's good enough to beat Barca remains to be seen.

Have in mind that the Catalans had to travel by bus (1000 km in 2 days) due to the ash cloud. Certainly not the best preparation for a CL semi at the San Siro. They know they don't have to fear anyone at the Nou Camp so I'm sure they won't be a disappointed with a draw or even a 1-2 defeat to take back to Spain. Infact they haven't won an away game in the knockout stages since Feb 2008 at Celtic Park! Inter are a stronger team now than they were back in the group stages when Barca outclassed them twice. They are in good form and will be full of confidence.
Not sure if I will bet myself but the two options I fancy are Inter +0.5 (currently available at 1.89) or Inter +0.25 (1.68). Both are fair value imho.

[serc]

thanks for all the input guys. Best of luck. If you had seen Barca's last game against Espanyol, and think about Mourinho's dirty tactics to stop teams that want to play good football, you would lean towards under and Inter but again I love Barca and I know they are capable of destroying Inter if they can score first. BOL and again thanks for all the input!

[Dark Horse]

1H Over 1 +120.
Only a scoreless 1H beats it. The first game between these teams was scoreless in Milan. But that was in the group stages, where teams take a calculating approach. Milan can't afford to be so conservative here. Because Barca will take care of business in the Nou Camp. So I expect goals.

Also, Barca is coming off a 0-0. The last time they did so in the Spanish league, they followed it up with 6 goals, so the reasoning that they're cold has no merit. If anything, goals are due.

[menang8]

It's Under!

[JOHON8]

The best play is no play.

I'm a Inter supporter, but for those who are betting on them be warned that Messi will spoil the party. This kid could destroy the under and the inter PK, and still not score. Remember the Arsenal 1st leg, he was a decoy and Ibra scored the goals.

[ClydeFontaine]

1st legs of ties are generally more conservative and even if one side scores a goal, no need to open up and take chances. That being said, the under sports heavy juice and likely all the value is taken out of it.

I am playing under but very small.

[Marginalis]

This.

1-2 barca wins