SuperDrew's Over/Under Picks - Currently 77% Strike Rate!
I've recently built my own spreadsheet to detect value in the Over/Under 2.5 Goal markets.
Although still early days, my success rate is 76.92% at an average price of 2.0. This gives an expected value per bet of 0.5384 units.
I am currently holding stats from 10 leagues around the world, but hope to expand it soon. The system has thrown out 3 games for today:
Fulham vs Wolves - English Premiership - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.46 Schalke vs Borussia Moenchengladbach - German Bundesliga - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.16 Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen - German Bundesliga - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.704
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle Sports, but remember to shop around for the best price to maximise your margin.
Hopefully these picks will continue to be successful now that I have published the picks!!
If you do fancy a bet on them, please keep stakes down to a minimum until I prove the system over a sustained period.
As we go along, feel free to donate betpoints if you feel they are deserved.
Sevilla vs Sporting Gijon - Spanish Lal Liga - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.18 Tigre vs Estudiantes - Argentinian Clausura - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 River Plate vs Godoy Cruz - Argentinian Clausura - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.629
The sample of the trial before today was 10 hits from 13 attempts. Today's turned out a bit of a disappointment to date, but it happens. I will continue to post my picks daily and we'll see where I'm at after 100, 200+ bets.
Like you, I'm just a footy fan at heart, who loves playing with the stats and trying to win a few quid at the same time. If that makes some 'experts' have a pop then so be it. Water off a duck's back. On the other hand, if it shows me to be onto something then we can have some real fun with this.
I hope you enjoy the ride. (PS Damn Spanish referees!)
I have spreadseets built for 10 leagues. Sample size is the number of selections to date. For example, it ran checks on the odds available in Germany today and only picked out 2 from the 6 games. Therefore, the 4 non-plays cannot be classed as part of the sample. Only the 2 that did flag up will form part of the success rates.
My picks only look at recent form. I need sufficient stats for my calculators to trigger and I have set this past 6 home games for home team or past 6 away games for visitors. If both teams don't match it gets flagged as 'No Bet'.
Some leagues, J-League, Russian Prem etc... are still in their infancy and so I will wait a few more weks before putting up selections from these.
Leagues such as Argies, German, English and Spanish are fully matured. It will be seen whether results dip towards the end of the season in each league as some teams have nothing to play for. If this is found to happen, I will go back to the drawing board and attempt to factor this in.
My stats have been collated for the current season in each league, whether that be 30 games or 4 games played to date, the formulas require at least 6 to function and only looks at the previous 6 when the number grows beyond this to ensure that historic stats (eg older than 2 months old) is ignored on the assumption that it is no longer relevant. At the start of each season, the spreadsheets will be reset and data farmed for the new league set-up and to detect how promoted teams cope, transfers take effect etc...
As I stated above, the selections are still in trial phase, 13 selections made prior to today, 10 winners.
As the English leagues shut down, I will switch to cover leagues such as in Scandanavia where the season differs to keep the bets coming.
I'm not saying this is a dead cert cash cow, it's just a fun experiment and we can see how it goes. If people have suggestions of other things I should be looking to build in, I'm all ears.
No offense but don't put winrates like that in your title because there is no way you can keep them. I've tested a system of my with under/over that went 25% yield in the first 200 bets. After 500 bets, there was 5% yield left. Variance is a huge deal.
Some people just don't read much further than the first two lines. Just protect them against their stupidty by being totally clear about it. It's just like Brandon Lang. When he is winning 2 weeks he's putting it on his website in big fat bold letters. But when he loses he just puts it somewhere on the end of the page, which is about 5 minutes scrolling.
I appeciate it WILL move, and I suspect downwards as the experiment develops. Not using it as a sales pitch, these are free picks. Will keep the stats in the email tomorrow, and out of the header.
Not a bad 1st day. 6 bets - 2 winners and only -2.046 pts down.
I once followed Yankee Horse Racing like a religion and I basically built up a 3 month database on the angles I wanted to bet on at the top tracks and then paper trailled it for another 3 months.
So, with a 6 month database that ironed out any freak results - I made a bit of money.
The only freak result, I didn't factor in was getting a wife that doesn't like staying in and watching Yankee Racing in the evening - would rather go to the movies, see her friends with me, blah, blah, blah.
Note to myself - I need to trade her in !!!!!
And Yes, when it comes to Yankee Racing - I am sad !!!!
Morning, Sing. I have set up a new thread with today's games on so you'll need to change your subscription. Did it to take the stats out of the title. But fear not, the rolling stats are within the posts.
Livid to wake up to the Godoy Cruz fiasco. Went to bed and it was 0-0 approaching half-time! Fair to say that the God's weren't kind yesterday but here's hoping for improved fortunes today.
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SuperDrew's Over/Under Picks - Currently 77% Strike Rate!
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