[Smogs]

Having a mediocre time of late betting football - so what better to go out in a blaze of glory/destruction/losing Tips

I've got 10 or so bets this week but since i'm leaving for work in 10 minutes i'll just post Mondays plays for now:

Leeds/Millwall - Draw (12/5) 0.5 Unit and Under 2.5 (4/5) 0.6 Unit

The game at the New Den between these two was really tight and it took a late winner for Millwall to win that one.
Millwall are on a great run at the moment and Leeds are slipping quite badly with Norwich marching on to the title. I think this will be a cagey match like the 1-1 these two shared at Elland Road last year in the playoffs and 1-1 is the score i like most.

[Smogs]

Bad staking meant i only broke even today. Glad to see Leeds choking though, we Boro fans hate Leeds

Lots of plays this week so i'll post them up soon

[TurkzZ]

Bad staking meant i only broke even today. Glad to see Leeds choking though, we Boro fans hate Leeds

so do we

[Smogs]

so do we

[SoV]

Dirty scummy Leeds!

[Smogs]

Dirty scummy Leeds!

Love it!!

Since this is my midweek thread and only good comes from the football forum - i am going to post my one NBA bet of the night here.

Phoenix/Golden State OVER 243 - 1 Unit

Big bet considering i admit i know bugger all about NBA when it comes down to it. Without Covers i would be useless.

Here goes nothing anyway

[Smogs]

Wahey!! Won the over in the NBA, i'd like to think my luck is changing but i can't be certain, especially when you see my picks for tonight

Nottingham Forest/Crystal Palace - Forest -1 @ 5/4 (1U) & Forest -2 @ 5/1 (0.4U)

It seems the whole forum is lining up for their free money on Forest tonight, and i have to admit i am one of them. I have made them my play of the day by a big margin but i have gotten greedy, really greedy and it could come back to haunt me.
The way i see this is having won their last 4 home games 1-0, and having lost their last 6 on the road, i feel they will either lose this 1-0 or win it 5-0. Hence, ever the optimist, i have put 50p on Earnshaw FGS and Forest to win 5-0 @ 185/1.
They are looking for their 12th straight home victory versus a Palace side who have gone on a dip following their revival in the face of administration. Forest should really roll here as Palace are missing their young player of the year and Claude Davis. Last year Palace won this matchup but there is something about the travelling up north on a Tuesday that doesn't sit right with me. I think this will be a blowout, as my bets suggest and if it's 0-0 at half time i'll be really worried.
Neither team are in particularly good form and it is really a case of if Forest win they can still get automatic, and if Palace win they can still stay up.

Southampton/Hartlepool - Southampton -1.5 @ 13/10 (0.7U)

This is one hell of a long trip for Hartlepool, the other end of the country and with them not being very good to start with, i do not see how they keep this close. Southampton have scored 15 goals in their last 6, winning 4. Hartlepool have a poor away record losing 11 of 18 away games.

West Ham/Wolves - West ham @ 4/5 (0.5U)

Didn't want to risk too much on this but it's a relegation 6-pointer, i did have a worry about how well Wolves played at the weekend, and Doyle is going to be a handful, but West Ham have been ok at home, beating Birmingham and Hull recently. Wolves are still a poor away team.

And the rest.....

Scunthorpe 10/11 - 0.5U

QPR 5/6 - 0.5U

Doncaster/Newcastle Under 2.5 - 0.5U

Bristol City 6/5 - 0.5U

Walsall +0.25 - 0.5U

QPR/Derby Over 2.5 - 0.4U

Bradford 2/1 - 0.3U

Accy Stanley/Burton Draw 12/5 - 0.3U

Colchester/Brentford Draw 12/5 - 0.2U

*I do have strong opinions on all these games so any questions and i'll be happy to answer them

[theplagy]

Wolves can't keep a clean sheet away. West ham can't defend and will score at home after 4 straight L.

Relegation dog fight usually results in high scoring game and lots of drama.

over 2.5 @ +110 looks tempting

[Smogs]

Wolves keep a clean sheet away. West ham can't defend and will score at home after 4 straight L.

Relegation dog fight usually results in high scoring game and lots of drama.

over 2.5 @ +110 looks tempting

It is very tempting, i was seeing something like a 2-1 home win

[lakerboy]

I agree with the plagy on the hammers game. I'm thinking over and at +ev why not.

[lakerboy]

I agree with the plagy on the hammers game. I'm thinking over and at +ev why not.

[Smogs]

With the pick getting a lot of popularity on here - i am going for the Over 2.5 at West ham for 0.4 Units

[Wilforth]

Colchester/Brentford Draw 12/5 - 0.2U

I hope you'll be wrong on that. But the draw looks analytically good though.

[SRBI]

What about Scunthorpe at evens versus Peterborough?

Scunthorpe battling relegation and what better time to cease the opportunity for a victory than versus one of the worst away sides in the Championship?

[Smogs]

Scunthorpe 10/11 - 0.5U

I hope you'll be wrong on that. But the draw looks analytically good though.

Yeah it's why i have minimal stakes on it, worth a little punt though, it will be tough for Colchester tonight

What about Scunthorpe at evens versus Peterborough?

Scunthorpe battling relegation and what better time to cease the opportunity for a victory than versus one of the worst away sides in the Championship?

Already got them

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

Anything wrong with Aldershot (-117) at Darlington? Looks to me like a nice pick.

[Smogs]

Sorry wil - just got back on the laptop, i steered clear because of a few injuries and the mid table position of aldershot. And the long trip. They might be a bit lazy and not try so hard

[Wilforth]

A win there would get them back into playoff conversation. I passed though.

[Smogs]

A win there would get them back into playoff conversation. I passed though.

Typical that they are winning now, and my bets look sh*t as always

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

I overthink things. I really liked Aldershot in that spot but passed. Now they'll win and whatever else I played may not cash.

[lakerboy]

there we got our over in west ham

[SRBI]

F*cking outstanding day! Nottingham wins, Scunthorpe wins, Newcastle & Middlesborough leading 1-0 and almost there...

Too bad about West Ham...hope yall didn't play a side, I was really leaning hard towards Wolves but did not play it.

And won't ya look it...Wolves lead 3-0

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

Nice call on the Colchester draw!

[waco66]

forest cashes!

[theplagy]

GJ bro

[Smogs]

Hmmm, after all that, i still only got +0.4 units profit today. What really killed me was Southampton and QPR, those two ate up nearly 2 units and they were both looking very good with an hour on the board.

Thanks for the comments though.

6-7-1 +0.4 Units

[Smogs]

I've just put that 0.4 units on Estudiantes -2 in play. I got evens at bet365. Did it after 20 mins

[Smogs]

You know what, F*ck this sh*t - Sunderland gets my money on Wednesday.

0.2 Units on a Sunderland win, only got 5/1, missed the 6/1 yesterday

1 unit on Sunderland +1 @ 4/5 (was evens on Monday)

1 Unit on the Under @ evens

0.2 Units on Dazzler Bentado FGS @ 13/2

0.2 Units on Bent anytime GS @ 2/1

Villa have 41 league goals this year, 11 of which were from Agbonlahor, he is missing. Dunne may be missing also if BBC is to be believed. Carew is the next best scorer for Villa on 6. They have just 25 home goals this season from 15, and 5 were against Burnley, and 5 against Bolton.
They are just 11th in the home league table and have won just 3 of their 9 leahue games this year.
Granted, Sunderland are sh*t on the road but they have gone 1 defeat in their last 8 and have taken 8 points from their last 4. Bent has 5 goals in his last 3, and if there is no Dunne, he will have more chance to score tonight. let's remember he wants a spot for South Africa.

Villa have not beaten Sunderland at home by more than one goal since at least 1997

6 of the last 8 at Villa Park have gone under

[Smogs]

Villa have just one win in March since 2006, a 1-0 home win over Pompey - Last weeks win at Wigan was O'Neill's first ever win in March with Villa, they always choke in March

[Smogs]

Just sneaked in a 0.4 unit bet on Man City/Blackburn DNB double. Got 10/11 for it.

[SoV]

Bent AGS away from home doesn't sit well with me, mate. Good luck though!

[SoV]

Also,

Chelsea -1, -1.5 looks good. Drogba FGS.

[Smogs]

Bent AGS away from home doesn't sit well with me, mate. Good luck though!

To be honest this could all go up in flames, i could be in the negative after tonight. Been a bit rash with staking as well

[SoV]

Since City are at home:

Tevez FGS & AGS.

[theplagy]

Smogs, Im on Sunderland +1 and Under as well. Took under 1 @ +110 1H too

GL buddy.