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Smogs Bet of the Season
Yes, my bet of the season has arrived after thinking about it for possibly 2 weeks now.
It is....
Newcastle DNB Vs Middlesbrough @ 1.925 2 Units
Newcastle ML @ 8/5 1 Unit
And for extra excitement - Over 2.5 @ 11/10 1 Unit
First things first, i am a massive Boro fan obviously, and will be trekking down to Boro from Aberdeen to watch the match. That alone means i need to bet on it, but there are so many factors, stats and situational edges that favour the away side (Geordie B*stards) that i have to bet against my own team and take the lovely odds on an away win, or at the very worst a draw and my money back on the big bet.
I rate Newcastle as closer to 50/50 for the win and that alone is excellent value in my opinion.
Firstly, i have to identify why my bets won't win: It's a derby, with Boro desperate to get into the playoffs for the end of season mix, Strachan finally gelling the team together well and bringing back the old 'Fortress Riverside' belief. We have only failed to pick up maximums at home in 2 of our last 6 at home. The 4 wins came at a cost of just one goal conceded.
Now onto why the bets can win: Newcastle own us at the Riverside, we have just won 2 of the last 13 on our home ground against Newcastle, and with Newcastle on the verge of automatic promotion they will give their maximum effort to make the short trip and win.
They have Carroll in fine for up front and the likes of Nolan and Lovenkrands playing some excellent football in the midfield. Their midfield all over is stronger than ours, and while we have injuries to contend with, Newcastle are at virtual full strength for this game. They have sold out their away end as always and i would be amazed if we kept a clean sheet.
The over is another favourite play because of the realisation that in front of goal, we are really struggling. That may not sound like much but i know that all week the boys have been training to increase the amount of chances created. Newcastle have scored 15 in their last 4 and this matchup has a tendency to go over.
8 of the last 13 have gone over and with Middlesbrough looking shaky at the back when teams get it in the box, which is what Newcastle do, i would expect 2 goals at least from Newcastle.
So there it is, my bet of the season, make of it what you will, i personally would recommend fading since i am a perennial 50% punter but hey, maybe i make a killing on this
LinWin gave Smogs 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
